Omori Law Recovery PhasesWhat is the Omori Law?
Originally a seismological model, the Omori Law describes how earthquake aftershocks decay over time. It follows a power law relationship: the frequency of aftershocks decreases roughly proportionally to 1/(t+c)^p, where:
t = time since the main shock
c = time offset constant
p = power law exponent (typically around 1.0)
Application to the markets
Financial markets experience "aftershocks" similar to earthquakes:
Market Crashes as Main Shocks: Major market declines (crashes) represent the initial shock event.
Volatility Decay: After a crash, market volatility typically declines following a power law pattern rather than a linear or exponential one.
Behavioral Components: The decay pattern reflects collective market psychology - initial panic gives way to uncertainty, then stabilization, and finally normalization.
The Four Recovery Phases
The Omori decay pattern in markets can be divided into distinct phases:
Acute Phase: Immediately after the crash, characterized by extreme volatility, panic selling, and sharp reversals. Trading is hazardous.
Reaction Phase: Volatility begins decreasing, but markets test previous levels. False rallies and retests of lows are common.
Repair Phase: Structure returns to the market. Volatility approaches normal levels, and traditional technical analysis becomes more reliable.
Recovery Phase: The final stage where market behavior normalizes completely. The impact of the original shock has fully decayed.
Why It Matters for Traders
Understanding where the market stands in this recovery cycle provides valuable context:
Risk Management: Adjust position sizing based on the current phase
Strategy Selection: Different strategies work in different phases
Psychological Preparation: Know what to expect based on the phase
Time Horizon Guidance: Each phase suggests appropriate time frames for trading
Crashcycle
Market Crashes/Chart Timeframes HighlightThis extremely helpful indicator allows you to highlight 7 custom date-based timeframes on your charts.
The default dates selected are what I consider to be the most significant 7 most recent market declines, including and since the 87 flash crash.
Note: The default dates are approximate but good enough to highlight the key timeframes of these pullbacks/crashes/corrections.
It's simple to use and does exactly what it should.
I created this indicator to make it easier when looking at the overall story of a chart. I found it helpful to highlight these areas to see how a market or equity has responded during these significant market pullbacks.
The highlight alone I’ve found helpful, and it becomes more powerful if you combine it with your own trusted trade system.
Also, to get the most out of using the default dates it’s important to understand the narrative behind each pullback/crash. Here’s the list of what I consider significant pullbacks:
Black Monday - Oct 87
1990s Recession - Jul 90 to Mar 91
Dot Com Bubble - 2000 to 2002 or so
Real Estate 2008 Crisis - I choose 2007-2009 to cover full insider knowledge and aftermath
2016 - 2018 - This isn't seen as a pullback, but I have it as significant because in many markets and equities, this was an almost equal percentage pullback as 2008. See Notes below
2020 Crash - Covid-19 and related shenanigans pullback
April 2021 to August 2022 - I believe we are in a current SHORT cycle so I've highlighted April 2021 as the start of what might be the start of a major decline testing Dot Com or lower levels.
A few notes on the above.
You'll find on most of the pullbacks listed above most equities and related markets behave similarly or have similar patterns.
The 2016-18 pullback is the most difficult to track. For instance, GE in this timeframe had a -80% decline, whereas BA depending on how you want to measure it had a 50-110% gain.
Bitcoin Daily Support/ResistanceA new indicator for tradingview.
Indicator Overview
The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.
Note: the x5 multiplication is of the price values of the 2yr moving average, not of its time period.
Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit.
Why This Happens
As Bitcoin is adopted, it moves through market cycles. These are created by periods where market participants are over-excited causing the price to over-extend, and periods where they are overly pessimistic where the price over-contracts. Identifying and understanding these periods can be beneficial to the long term investor.
This tool is a simple and effective way to highlight those periods
MA 50/100/150 was historically good support and resistance. When we cross them we have a new trend that is established.
