(Early Test) Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion# Enhancing Trading Strategies with the Weekly Seasonality Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
Amidst this pursuit to chase price, a common pitfall emerges: an overemphasis on price movements without adequate attention to risk management, probabilistic analysis, and strategic position sizing. To address these challenges, I developed the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator**. It is designed to refocus traders on essential aspects of trading, such as risk management and probabilistic returns, thereby catering to both short-term swing traders and long-term investors aiming for tax-efficient positions.
## The Motivation Behind the Indicator
### Overemphasis on Price: A Common Trading Pitfall
Many traders concentrate heavily on price charts and technical indicators, often neglecting the underlying principles of risk management and probabilistic analysis. This overemphasis on price can lead to:
- **Overtrading:** Making frequent trades based solely on price movements without considering the associated risks.
- **Poor Risk Management:** Failing to set appropriate stop-loss levels or position sizes, increasing the potential for significant losses.
- **Emotional Trading:** Letting emotions drive trading decisions rather than objective analysis, which can result in impulsive and irrational trades.
### The Need for Balanced Focus
To achieve sustained trading success, it is crucial to balance price analysis with robust risk management and probabilistic strategies. Key areas of focus include:
1. **Risk Management:** Implementing strategies to protect capital, such as setting stop-loss orders and determining appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance.
2. **Probabilistic Analysis:** Assessing the likelihood of various market outcomes to make informed trading decisions.
3. **Swing Trading Percent Returns:** Capitalizing on short- to medium-term price movements by buying assets below their average return and selling them above.
## Introducing the Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
The **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** is designed to integrate these essential elements into a comprehensive tool that aids traders in making informed, risk-aware decisions. Below, we explore the key components and functionalities of this indicator.
### Key Components of the Indicator
1. **Average Return (%)**
- **Definition:** The mean percentage return for each week across multiple years.
- **Purpose:** Serves as a benchmark to identify weeks with above or below-average performance, guiding buy and sell decisions.
2. **Positive Percentage (%)**
- **Definition:** The proportion of weeks that yielded positive returns.
- **Purpose:** Indicates the consistency of positive returns, helping traders gauge the reliability of certain weeks for trading.
3. **Volatility (%)**
- **Definition:** The standard deviation of weekly returns.
- **Purpose:** Measures the variability of returns, providing insights into the risk associated with trading during specific weeks.
4. **Kelly Ratio**
- **Definition:** A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithmic growth of capital.
- **Purpose:** Balances potential returns against risks, guiding traders on the appropriate position size to take.
5. **Adjusted Kelly Fraction**
- **Definition:** The Kelly Ratio adjusted based on user-defined risk tolerance and external factors like Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.
- **Purpose:** Personalizes the Kelly Criterion to align with individual risk preferences and market conditions, enhancing risk management.
6. **Position Size ($)**
- **Definition:** The calculated amount to invest based on the Adjusted Kelly Fraction.
- **Purpose:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with risk management strategies, preventing overexposure to any single trade.
7. **Max Drawdown (%)**
- **Definition:** The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained.
- **Purpose:** Assesses the worst-case scenario for losses, crucial for understanding potential capital erosion.
### Functionality and Benefits
- **Weekly Data Aggregation:** Aggregates weekly returns across multiple years to provide a robust statistical foundation for decision-making.
- **Quarterly Filtering:** Allows users to filter weeks based on quarters, enabling seasonality analysis and tailored strategies aligned with specific timeframes.
- **Dynamic Risk Adjustment:** Incorporates the Dynamic Kelly Criterion to adjust position sizes in real-time based on changing risk profiles and market conditions.
- **User-Friendly Visualization:** Presents all essential metrics in an organized Summary Table, facilitating quick and informed decision-making.
## The Origin of the Kelly Criterion and Addressing Its Limitations
### Understanding the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the long-term growth of capital. The formula considers both the probability of winning and the payout ratio, balancing potential returns against the risk of loss.
**Kelly Formula:**
\
Where:
- \( b \) = the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1")
- \( p \) = probability of winning
- \( q \) = probability of losing ( \( q = 1 - p \) )
### The Risk of Ruin
While the Kelly Criterion is effective in optimizing growth, it carries inherent risks:
- **Overbetting:** If the input probabilities or payout ratios are misestimated, the Kelly Criterion can suggest overly aggressive position sizes, leading to significant losses.
- **Assumption of Constant Probabilities:** The criterion assumes that probabilities remain constant, which is rarely the case in dynamic markets.
- **Ignoring External Factors:** Traditional Kelly implementations do not account for external factors such as Federal Reserve rates, margin requirements, or market volatility, which can impact risk and returns.
### Addressing Traditional Limitations
Recognizing these limitations, the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** introduces enhancements to the traditional Kelly approach:
- **Incorporation of Fed Stance:** Adjusts the Kelly Fraction based on the current stance of the Federal Reserve (neutral, dovish, or hawkish), reflecting broader economic conditions that influence market behavior.
- **Margin and Leverage Considerations:** Accounts for margin rates and leverage, ensuring that position sizes remain within manageable risk parameters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Continuously updates position sizes based on real-time risk assessments and probabilistic analyses, mitigating the risk of ruin associated with static Kelly implementations.
## How the Indicator Aids Traders
### For Short-Term Swing Traders
Short-term swing traders thrive on capitalizing over weekly price movements. The indicator aids them by:
- **Identifying Favorable Weeks:** Highlights weeks with above-average returns and favorable volatility, guiding entry and exit points.
- **Optimal Position Sizing:** Utilizes the Adjusted Kelly Fraction to determine the optimal amount to invest, balancing potential returns with risk exposure.
- **Probabilistic Insights:** Provides metrics like Positive Percentage (%) and Kelly Ratio to assess the likelihood of favorable outcomes, enhancing decision-making.
### For Long-Term Tax-Free Investors
This is effectively a drop-in replacement for DCA which uses fixed position size that doesn't change based on market conditions, as a result, it's like catching multiple falling knifes by the blade and smiling with blood on your hand... I don't know about you, but I'd rather juggle by the hilt and look like an actual professional...
Long-term investors, especially those seeking tax-free positions (e.g., through retirement accounts), benefit from:
- **Consistent Risk Management:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with long-term capital preservation strategies.
- **Seasonality Analysis:** Allows for strategic positioning based on historical performance trends across different weeks and quarters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Adapts to changing market conditions, maintaining optimal risk profiles over extended investment horizons.
### Developers
Please double check the logic and functionality because I think there are a few issue and I need to crowd source solutions and be responsible about the code I publish. If you have corrections, please DM me or leave a respectful comment.
I want to publish this by the end of the year and include other things like highlighting triple witching weeks, adding columns for volume % stats, VaR and CVaR, alpha, beta (to see the seasonal alpha and beta based off a benchmark ticker and risk free rate ticker and other little goodies.
Concept
RSI with Swing Trade by Kelvin_VAlgorithm Description: "RSI with Swing Trade by Kelvin_V"
1. Introduction:
This algorithm uses the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and optional Moving Averages (MA) to detect potential uptrends and downtrends in the market. The key feature of this script is that it visually changes the candle colors based on the market conditions, making it easier for users to identify potential trend swings or wave patterns.
The strategy offers flexibility by allowing users to enable or disable the MA condition. When the MA condition is enabled, the strategy will confirm trends using two moving averages. When disabled, the strategy will only use RSI to detect potential market swings.
2. Key Features of the Algorithm:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is used to identify potential market turning points based on overbought and oversold conditions.
When the RSI exceeds a predefined upper threshold (e.g., 60), it suggests a potential uptrend.
When the RSI drops below a lower threshold (e.g., 40), it suggests a potential downtrend.
Moving Averages (MA) - Optional:
Two Moving Averages (Short MA and Long MA) are used to confirm trends.
If the Short MA crosses above the Long MA, it indicates an uptrend.
If the Short MA crosses below the Long MA, it indicates a downtrend.
Users have the option to enable or disable this MA condition.
Visual Candle Coloring:
Green candles represent a potential uptrend, indicating a bullish move based on RSI (and MA if enabled).
Red candles represent a potential downtrend, indicating a bearish move based on RSI (and MA if enabled).
3. How the Algorithm Works:
RSI Levels:
The user can set RSI upper and lower bands to represent potential overbought and oversold levels. For example:
RSI > 60: Indicates a potential uptrend (bullish move).
RSI < 40: Indicates a potential downtrend (bearish move).
Optional MA Condition:
The algorithm also allows the user to apply the MA condition to further confirm the trend:
Short MA > Long MA: Confirms an uptrend, reinforcing a bullish signal.
Short MA < Long MA: Confirms a downtrend, reinforcing a bearish signal.
This condition can be disabled, allowing the user to focus solely on RSI signals if desired.
Swing Trade Logic:
Uptrend: If the RSI exceeds the upper threshold (e.g., 60) and (optionally) the Short MA is above the Long MA, the candles will turn green to signal a potential uptrend.
Downtrend: If the RSI falls below the lower threshold (e.g., 40) and (optionally) the Short MA is below the Long MA, the candles will turn red to signal a potential downtrend.
Visual Representation:
The candle colors change dynamically based on the RSI values and moving average conditions, making it easier for traders to visually identify potential trend swings or wave patterns without relying on complex chart analysis.
4. User Customization:
The algorithm provides multiple customization options:
RSI Length: Users can adjust the period for RSI calculation (default is 4).
RSI Upper Band (Potential Uptrend): Users can customize the upper RSI level (default is 60) to indicate a potential bullish move.
RSI Lower Band (Potential Downtrend): Users can customize the lower RSI level (default is 40) to indicate a potential bearish move.
MA Type: Users can choose between SMA (Simple Moving Average) and EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for moving average calculations.
Enable/Disable MA Condition: Users can toggle the MA condition on or off, depending on whether they want to add moving averages to the trend confirmation process.
5. Benefits of the Algorithm:
Easy Identification of Trends: By changing candle colors based on RSI and MA conditions, the algorithm makes it easy for users to visually detect potential trend reversals and trend swings.
Flexible Conditions: The user has full control over the RSI and MA settings, allowing them to adapt the strategy to different market conditions and timeframes.
Clear Visualization: With the candle color changes, users can quickly recognize when a potential uptrend or downtrend is forming, enabling faster decision-making in their trading.
6. Example Usage:
Day traders: Can apply this strategy on short timeframes such as 5 minutes or 15 minutes to detect quick trends or reversals.
Swing traders: Can use this strategy on longer timeframes like 1 hour or 4 hours to identify and follow larger market swings.
Smooth Cloud [BigBeluga]This trend-following indicator, called Smooth Cloud, is built on top of a SuperSmoother Filter of John Ehlers with small modification.
It consists of three smoothed lines—Fast, Middle, and Slow—that together form a cloud. These lines are based on different periods, helping traders analyze market changes over different timeframes (fast, mid, and slow). The indicator offers a color-coded visual cloud to depict trend direction, along with a detailed dashboard that shows the positioning of the lines, whether they are rising or falling, and their price levels.
🔵 IDEA
The Smooth Cloud indicator is designed to help traders quickly assess the market trend by using three smoothed lines with varying periods. The lines represent fast, mid, and slow market changes, and their relative positioning provides a clear view of trend shifts. The dashboard gives a more granular view by showing if the lines are rising or falling individually, without comparing them to each other, providing insights into potential trend changes before they are fully formed. The color-coded cloud further enhances the visual experience by allowing traders to see trend direction at a glance, making it easier to spot major and minor shifts in the market.
🔵 KEY FEATURES & USAGE
◉ Three Smoothed Lines (Fast, Mid, Slow):
The indicator consists of three smoothed lines, each representing a different periods. The Fast line reacts more quickly to price changes, while the Slow line reacts more slowly, allowing traders to capture both short-term and long-term trend information. The lines are based on different lengths, and their positioning relative to each other helps determine market direction.
◉ Color-Coded Cloud:
The cloud formed between the lines is color-coded to indicate trend direction. When the Fast line is above the Slow line, it signals an upward trend, and the cloud is green. When the Fast line is below the Slow line, the cloud turns red, indicating a downward trend. This color coding makes it easy to spot the overall trend direction visually without having to analyze the lines in detail.
◉ Dashboard for Line Positioning and Trend Direction:
A dashboard in the top right corner of the chart shows the positioning of the Fast, Middle, and Slow lines relative to each other. It displays arrows for each line to indicate whether the line is above or below the other lines. For exae determines its trend direction based on its position to mid line — if it's above, an upward arrow is displayed, and if it's below mid line, a downward arrow is shown.mple, if the Fast line is above the Slow line, the dashboard shows an upward arrow for the Fast line. The Slow lin
Up trend:
Up trend shift:
Down trend shift:
Down Trend:
◉ Rising and Falling Detection:
The dashboard also tracks whether the lines are rising or falling based solely on their own values. If a line rises or falls consistently over three bars, the dashboard shows an upward or downward arrow under the "Rising or Falling" section. This feature provides additional insight into the market's momentum, allowing traders to spot potential trend reversals more quickly.
◉ Price Levels for Fast, Middle, and Slow Lines:
The dashboard includes the price levels for the Fast, Middle, and Slow lines, displayed at the bottom. These levels give traders a quick reference for where the lines are currently positioned relative to the price, adding further context to the trend information displayed.
◉ Fast Signals:
The fast signals are diplayed when fast line crosses slow line. Gree arrows up shows fast line crossed over slow and when arrow down fast line crossed under slow one.
🔵 CUSTOMIZATION
Length Input: You can adjust the length parameter, which affects the smoothing period for the lines. A shorter length makes the lines react more quickly to price changes, while a longer length provides a smoother, more gradual response.
Source Input: The indicator uses the hl2 source (the average of the high and low prices), but you can change this to another source to better suit your trading strategy.
Signals Type: Select between "Fast" and "Slow". Fast signals - is interaction of fast and slow lines. Slow signals is interaction of mid and slow lines
Related script:
True Day Open1. *nyTime*: Converts the current time to the New York timezone.
2. *nyHour and nyMinute*: Extracts the hour and minute of the current candle in the New York timezone.
3. *isNyMidnightCandle*: A boolean variable that checks if the current candle is the 12:00 AM candle in New York.
4. *bgcolor*: Colors the background of the 12:00 AM candle blue.
5. *plotshape*: Optionally, you can mark the 12:00 AM candle with a blue label above the bar for better visibility.
You can copy and paste this code into the Pine Editor on TradingView and apply it to your chart. Make sure your chart is set to the 5-minute timeframe.
Maximum Bar Range in TicksThis is a simple indicator that gives the maximum range of any bar on the chart in ticks. I found it useful when sizing arrays and it might also be valuable when working out risk parameters.
Engulfing Candle Indicator with SweepTHIS IS ENGULFED SWEEP CANDLE
This TradingView indicator identifies and highlights bullish and bearish engulfing candlestick patterns with an additional condition: the recent candle must "sweep" the high or low of the previous candle. This refined approach helps to confirm the strength of the engulfing pattern by ensuring that the current candle extends beyond the previous candle's range.
Features:
- **Bullish Engulfing Detection**: Identifies a bullish engulfing pattern where the current candle fully engulfs the previous candle's body, and the low of the current candle is below the low of the previous candle.
- **Bearish Engulfing Detection**: Identifies a bearish engulfing pattern where the current candle fully engulfs the previous candle's body, and the high of the current candle is above the high of the previous candle.
- **Visual Indicators**: Marks bullish engulfing patterns with a green label below the bar and bearish engulfing patterns with a red label above the bar.
- **Alert Conditions**: Provides customizable alerts for detected patterns, enabling you to be notified when a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern with a sweep is detected.
#### Usage:
1. **Apply to Chart**: Add the indicator to your chart to start detecting engulfing patterns with sweep conditions.
2. **Set Alerts**: Configure alerts to receive notifications when the indicator identifies a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern with a sweep.
#### Ideal For:
- Traders looking for additional confirmation in engulfing patterns.
- Users who want to incorporate price action signals into their trading strategy.
By incorporating the sweep condition, this indicator aims to enhance the reliability of the engulfing patterns and provide more actionable signals.
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Feel free to adjust the description based on any specific details or features you want to highlight. If there are any additional features or details about the indicator that should be included, let me know!
Daily Range + Asia Liquidity + FVG + silver Bullet sessionIndicator Description :
This indicator combines several trading concepts to provide an overall view of intraday selling opportunities. It includes the following elements:
Daily Range:
Measures the daily price range between the highest and lowest points of the day.
Helps understand daily volatility and identify potential support and resistance levels.
Asia Liquidity:
Analyzes price movements and volumes during the Asian session (usually from 00:00 to 08:00 GMT).
Identifies liquidity levels where the price has reacted during this period, providing clues on where significant orders are concentrated.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
A trading concept that identifies areas where the price has moved quickly, creating a "gap" or empty space on the chart.
These areas are often revisited by the price, which can provide potential entry or exit points.
Silver Bullet Session:
Refers to a specific period of the day where a particular strategy or setup is expected to occur. For example, this could be a period where price movements are historically more predictable or volatile.
This session particularly targets price movements that attract sellers.
Using the Indicator
Identifying Selling Levels:
Combine the daily range levels with the liquidity zones identified during the Asian session to spot levels where sellers might be interested.
Use the fair value gaps (FVG) to identify areas where the price might return, providing entry or exit points for selling positions.
Silver Bullet Session:
Focus on this period to observe price movements and reactions to the levels identified earlier.
Look for selling signals (e.g., bearish reversal candlesticks or continuation patterns) during this session to maximize selling opportunities.
Objective :
The objective of this indicator is to provide a systematic approach to identifying selling opportunities based on multiple technical and temporal elements. By combining daily volatility, liquidity levels, value gaps, and specific trading periods, this indicator helps traders pinpoint potential selling points with greater accuracy.
Bearish vs Bullish ArgumentsThe Bearish vs Bullish Arguments Indicator is a tool designed to help traders visually assess and compare the number of bullish and bearish arguments based on their custom inputs. This script enables users to input up to five bullish and five bearish arguments, dynamically displaying the bias on a clean and customizable table on the chart. This provides traders with a clear, visual representation of the market sentiment they have identified.
Key Features:
Customizable Inputs: Users can input up to five bullish and five bearish arguments, which are displayed in a table on the chart.
Bias Calculation: The script calculates the bias (Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral) based on the number of bullish and bearish arguments provided.
Color Customization: Users can customize the colors for the table background, text, and headers, ensuring the table fits seamlessly into their charting environment.
Reset Functionality: A reset switch allows users to clear all input arguments with a single click, making it easy to start fresh.
How It Works:
Input Fields: The script provides input fields for up to five bullish and five bearish arguments. Each input is a simple text field where users can describe their arguments.
Bias Calculation: The script counts the number of non-empty bullish and bearish arguments and determines the overall bias. The bias is displayed in the table with a dynamically changing color to indicate whether the market sentiment is bullish, bearish, or neutral.
Customizable Table: The table is positioned on the chart according to the user's preference (top-left, top-right, bottom-left, bottom-right) and can be customized in terms of background color and text color.
How to Use:
Add the Indicator: Add the Bearish vs Bullish Arguments Indicator to your chart.
Input Arguments: Enter up to five bullish and five bearish arguments in the provided input fields in the script settings.
Customize Appearance: Adjust the table's background color, text color, and position on the chart to fit your preferences.
Example Use Case:
A trader might use this indicator to visually balance their arguments for and against a particular trade setup. By entering their reasons for a bullish outlook in the bullish argument fields and their reasons for a bearish outlook in the bearish argument fields, they can quickly see which side has more supporting points and make a more informed trading decision.
This script was inspired by Arjoio's concepts
Tic Tac Toe Game [TradeDots]Feeling bored with trading?
Time to inject some fun into your decision-making process with our Tic Tac Toe Indicator!
The Tic Tac Toe game transforms your chart into a competitive playground where trading pairs face off in a classic game of Tic Tac Toe.
HOW TO PLAY
Our Tic Tac Toe game invites you to pit one trading pair against another directly on your chart. Choose the competitors and watch as they battle it out in a traditional grid setup.
Navigate to settings and select your competitor pair.
Choose who kicks off the game.
After the close of each new bar, the algorithm will utilize the closing prices of both symbols. These numbers feed into a random number generator which alternates the turns for placing marks on the grid.
The game progresses until one pair aligns three consecutive symbols and wins, or the board fills up. After that, the game resets every three bars, offering continual engagement during active market hours.
MANUAL PLAYING MODE
Currently, due to PineScript's limitations, a fully interactive manual mode is not supported, as all previous data will be lost with each new user input, preventing the replication of existing game states.
However, users can input a sequence at the start, guiding the placement of symbols throughout the game.
Stay tuned for future updates!
Swing Harmony IndicatorThis indicator is called "Swing Harmony Indicator" and it calculates the average of the highest high and lowest low prices over a certain period, along with a simple moving average of the closing prices. It then plots these values on the chart, with the color of the average line dynamically changing based on whether the second average is less than or greater than the first average.
Hurst Future Lines of Demarcation StrategyJ. M. Hurst introduced a concept in technical analysis known as the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which serves as a forward-looking tool by incorporating a simple yet profound line into future projections on a financial chart. Specifically, the FLD is constructed by offsetting the price half a cycle ahead into the future on the time axis, relative to the Hurst Cycle of interest. For instance, in the context of a 40 Day Cycle, the FLD would be represented by shifting the current price data 20 days forward on the chart, offering an idea of future price movement anticipations.
The utility of FLDs extends into three critical areas of insight, which form the backbone of the FLD Trading Strategy:
A price crossing the FLD signifies the confirmation of either a peak or trough formation, indicating pivotal moments in price action.
Such crossings also help determine precise price targets for the upcoming peak or trough, aligned with the cycle of examination.
Additionally, the occurrence of a peak in the FLD itself signals a probable zone where the price might experience a trough, helping to anticipate of future price movements.
These insights by Hurst in his "Cycles Trading Course" during the 1970s, are instrumental for traders aiming to determine entry and exit points, and to forecast potential price movements within the market.
To use the FLD Trading Strategy, for example when focusing on the 40 Day Cycle, a trader should primarily concentrate on the interplay between three Hurst Cycles:
The 20 Day FLD (Signal) - Half the length of the Trade Cycle
The 40 Day FLD (Trade) - The Cycle you want to trade
The 80 Day FLD (Trend) - Twice the length of the Trade Cycle
Traders can gauge trend or consolidation by watching for two critical patterns:
Cascading patterns, characterized by several FLDs running parallel with a consistent separation, typically emerge during pronounced market trends, indicating strong directional momentum.
Consolidation patterns, on the other hand, occur when multiple FLDs intersect and navigate within the same price bandwidth, often reversing direction to traverse this range multiple times. This tangled scenario results in the formation of Pause Zones, areas where price momentum is likely to temporarily stall or where the emergence of a significant trend might be delayed.
This simple FLD indicator provides 3 FLDs with optional source input and smoothing, A-through-H FLD interaction background, adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers, and a simple strategy for backtesting it all.
The A-through-H FLD interactions are a framework designed to classify the different types of price movements as they intersect with or diverge from the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD). Each interaction (designated A through H by color) represents a specific phase or characteristic within the cycle, and understanding these can help traders anticipate future price movements and make informed decisions.
The adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers are for setting the crossover/under that determines the trade exits. The options include: Price, Signal FLD, Trade FLD, or Trend FLD. For example, a trader may want to exit trades only when price finally crosses the Trade FLD line.
Shoutouts & Credits for all the raw code, helpful information, ideas & collaboration, conversations together, introductions, indicator feedback, and genuine/selfless help:
🏆 @TerryPascoe
🏅 @Hpotter
👏 @parisboy
BTC Purchasing Power 2009-20XX! Hello, today I'm going to show you something that shifts our perspective on Bitcoin's value, not just in nominal terms, but adjusted for the real buying power over the years. This Pine Script TAS developed for TradingView does exactly that by taking into account inflation rates from 2009 to the present.
As you know, inflation erodes the purchasing power of money. That $100 in 2009 does not buy you the same amount in goods or services today. The same concept applies to Bitcoin. While we often look at its price in terms of dollars, pounds, or euros, it's crucial to understand what that price really means in terms of purchasing power.
What this script does is adjust the price of Bitcoin for cumulative inflation since 2009, allowing us to see not just how the nominal price has changed, but how its value as a means of purchasing goods and services has evolved.
For example, if we see Bitcoin's price at $60,000 today, that number might seem high compared to its early years. However, when we adjust this price for inflation, we might find that in terms of 2009's purchasing power, the effective price might be somewhat lower. This adjusted price gives us a more accurate reflection of Bitcoin's true value over time.
This script plots two lines on the chart:
The Original BTC Price: This is the unadjusted price of Bitcoin as we typically see it.
BTC Purchasing Power: This line shows Bitcoin's price adjusted for inflation, reflecting how many goods or services Bitcoin could buy at that point in time compared to 2009.
By comparing these lines, we can observe periods where Bitcoin's purchasing power significantly increased, even if the nominal price was not at its peak. This can help us identify moments when Bitcoin was undervalued or overvalued in real terms.
This analysis is crucial for long-term investors and traders who want to understand Bitcoin's value beyond the surface-level price movements. It helps us appreciate Bitcoin's potential as a store of value, especially in contexts where traditional currencies are losing purchasing power due to inflation.
Remember, investing is not just about riding price waves; it's about understanding the underlying value. And that's precisely what this script helps us to uncover
Dynamic Gradient Filter
Sigmoid Functions:
History and Mathematical Basis:
Sigmoid functions have a rich history in mathematics and are widely used in various fields, including statistics, machine learning, and signal processing.
The term "sigmoid" originates from the Greek words "sigma" (meaning "S-shaped") and "eidos" (meaning "form" or "type").
The sigmoid curve is characterized by its smooth S-shaped appearance, which allows it to map any real-valued input to a bounded output range, typically between 0 and 1.
The most common form of the sigmoid function is the logistic function:
Logistic Function (σ):
Defined as σ(x) = 1 / (1 + e^(-x)), where:
'x' is the input value,
'e' is Euler's number (approximately 2.71828).
This function was first introduced by Belgian mathematician Pierre François Verhulst in the 1830s to model population growth with limiting factors.
It gained popularity in the early 20th century when statisticians like Ronald Fisher began using it in regression analysis.
Specific Sigmoid Functions Used in the Indicator:
sig(val):
The 'sig' function in this indicator is a modified version of the logistic function, clamping a value between 0 and 1 on the sigmoid curve.
siga(val):
The 'siga' function adjusts values between -1 and 1 on the sigmoid curve, offering a centered variation of the sigmoid effect.
sigmoid(val):
The 'sigmoid' function provides a standard implementation of the logistic function, calculating the sigmoid value of the input data.
Adaptive Smoothing Factor:
The ' adaptiveSmoothingFactor(gradient, k)' function computes a dynamic smoothing factor for the filter based on the gradient of the price data and the user-defined sensitivity parameter 'k' .
Gradient:
The gradient represents the rate of change in price, calculated as the absolute difference between the current and previous close prices.
Sensitivity (k):
The 'k' parameter adjusts how quickly the filter reacts to changes in the gradient. Higher values of 'k' lead to a more responsive filter, while lower values result in smoother outputs.
Usage in the Indicator:
The "close" value refers to the closing price of each period in the chart's time frame
The indicator calculates the gradient by measuring the absolute difference between the current "close" price and the previous "close" price.
This gradient represents the strength or magnitude of the price movement within the chosen time frame.
The "close" value plays a pivotal role in determining the dynamic behavior of the "Dynamic Gradient Filter," as it directly influences the smoothing factor.
What Makes This Special:
The "Dynamic Gradient Filter" indicator stands out due to its adaptive nature and responsiveness to changing market conditions.
Dynamic Smoothing Factor:
The indicator's dynamic smoothing factor adjusts in real-time based on the rate of change in price (gradient) and the user-defined sensitivity '(k)' parameter.
This adaptability allows the filter to respond promptly to both minor fluctuations and significant price movements.
Smoothed Price Action:
The final output of the filter is a smoothed representation of the price action, aiding traders in identifying trends and potential reversals.
Customizable Sensitivity:
Traders can adjust the 'Sensitivity' parameter '(k)' to suit their preferred trading style, making the indicator versatile for various strategies.
Visual Clarity:
The plotted "Dynamic Gradient Filter" line on the chart provides a clear visual guide, enhancing the understanding of market dynamics.
Usage:
Traders and analysts can utilize the "Dynamic Gradient Filter" to:
Identify trends and reversals in price movements.
Filter out noise and highlight significant price changes.
Fine-tune trading strategies by adjusting the sensitivity parameter.
Enhance visual analysis with a dynamically adjusting filter line on the chart.
Literature:
en.wikipedia.org
medium.com
en.wikipedia.org
Cryptocurrency Altcoin Screener
This indicator works as a screener for bullish/bearish moves. There are two versions showing two different sets of Altcoins, just choose version 1 or 2. Load up any chart and it will show all selected pairs and their current state regardless of asset or timeframe. Assets can be shown/unshown and longs/shorts can be shown/unshown.
It shows (asset) +1 if it considers it bullish
(asset) -1 if it considers it bearish
(asset) 0 if considers the asset to be neutral/choppy
You can see how effective the indicator is by loading up the asset you're looking at, this will show the true history of the markers for that asset.
This script utilises MACD and RSI on the daily timeframe on both USDT and BTC pairs in order to identify a trend.
The main purpose of the script is to easily identify strong trends that allow you to do TA with rather than manually looking at every asset
itradesize /\ Silver Bullet x Macro x KillzoneThis indicator shows the best way to annotate ICT Killzones, Silver Bullet and Macro times on the chart. With the help of a new pane, it will not distract your chart and will not cause any distractions to your eye, or brain but you can see when will they happen.
The indicator also draws everything beforehand when a proper new day starts.
You can customize them how you want to show up.
Collapsed or full view?
You can hide any of them and keep only the ones you would like to.
All the colors can be customized, texts & sizes or just use shortened texts and you are also able to hide those drawings which are older than the actual day.
You should minimize the pane where the script has been automatically drawn to therefore you will have the best experience and not show any distractions.
The script automatically shows the time-based boxes, based on the New York timezone.
Killzone Time windows ( for indices ):
London KZ 02:00 - 05:00
New York AM KZ 07:00 - 10:00
New York PM KZ 13:30 - 16:00
Silver Bullet times:
03:00 - 04:00
10:00 - 11:00
14:00 - 15:00
Macro times:
02:33 - 03:00
04:03 - 04:30
08:50 - 0910
09:50 - 10:10
10:50 - 11:10
11:50 - 12:50
"Daily Range with Filtre [Hunter_Algo]
- The script calculates the high and low ranges based on the specified session time, such as the Asia Liquidity session.
- It uses the timeinrange function to determine if the current bar is within the specified session.
- High and low values are updated based on whether the current high or low surpasses the previous values within the specified session.
- The script includes functions to convert day strings to integers and style strings to enumeration values.
- There are additional inputs related to the start and end of the day range, as well as colors and styles for various elements.
- The script calculates daily high (Dh), daily low (Dl), and other variables based on certain conditions, including the day of the week.
Oops!Oops! is based on an overemotional response, then a quick reversal of the concomitant overreaction of price. The overreaction we are looking for to give us a buy signal is an opening that is below the previous day's low. The entry comes when, following the lower open, price then rallies back to the previous day's low (selling pressures have been abated and a market rally should follow). A sell signal is just the opposite. We will be looking for an open greater than the prior day's high. Our entry then comes from price falling back to the prior high, giving us a strong short-term suggestion of lower prices to come.
Cycle OscillatorThe Cycle Oscillator is a tool developed to help traders analyze market cycles thanks to a simplified version of the Hurst theory and the easy visualization provided by the detrended cycle.
This indicator has two functions:
- The first one is the plotting of a line that oscillates above and below the zero line, which can be used to find the cycle direction and momentum
- The second feature is the next-cycle bottom forecaster, useful for estimating the timing of the future pivot low based on the pivot low of the oscillator.
This last feature shows graphically the period in which the next low will probably happen, using as a calculation method the timing of the previous indicator's lows.
Additionally, the user can choose to modify the cycle length to analyze bigger or smaller price movements.
This indicator can be greatly used in combination with other Cycle Indicators to gain more confluence in the plotted time areas.
Cycle IndicatorThe Cycle Indicator is a tool developed to help traders analyze market cycles thanks to a simplified version of the Hurst theory.
This indicator has two functions:
- The first one is the plotting of a line that can be used to find the cycle direction and momentum
- The second feature is the next-cycle bottom forecaster, useful for estimating the timing of the future pivot low.
This last feature shows graphically the period in which the next low will probably happen, using as a calculation method the timing of the previous lows.
Additionally, the user can choose to extend this time zone or to limit them to the range between the last pivot high and low.
NormInvTargetSeekerNormInvTargetSeeker
The NormInvTargetSeeker is a trading tool designed to aid traders in identifying and capitalizing on Distribution and Accumulation zones, highlighting specific price levels that could serve as targets for future price movements. Although the indicator itself is not multi-timeframe, an effective trading strategy might involve signal validation across multiple timeframes.
🔶 USAGE
The indicator identifies Distribution and Accumulation zones, providing potential targets for future price moves.
Traders are encouraged to use these zones as profit targets or potential reversal points.
Confluence Zones
These zones are identified as regions where various factors or levels converge, signaling an increased probability of price reaction.
They can be used to reinforce signals or identify levels where price might encounter significant resistance or support.
🔹 Trading Strategy
First, identify a signal on your primary trading timeframe.
Manually check higher timeframes to ensure the signal aligns with them.
Use the identified zones, whether Distribution or Accumulation, as target zones for your trades.
🔶 Order Blocks
The NormInvTargetSeeker identifies "Order Blocks" by examining a specified number of consecutive candles with a specific condition: the current candle must completely engulf the previous candle. This means that both the high and low of the current candle are higher and lower, respectively, than the high and low of the previous candle, signifying a dominant move in the direction of the current candle.
🔹 Trading Strategy
Target Confirmation: Order Blocks can serve to confirm target points, providing additional validation for identified levels.
Market Insight: They offer crucial insights into whether "big hands" or institutional players are positioned as buyers or sellers in the market.
Traders can use Order Blocks as a means to validate targets or key price levels, observing if the price reacts significantly upon reaching these blocks.
They can also provide insights into the general market direction or underlying market strength by identifying where the major market players are placing their orders.
🔶 SETTINGS
The indicator allows users to adjust various parameters to customize the display and logic of the tool to fit their needs.
🔹 Display Settings
Users can customize the colors and displays of various zones and labels to match their preferences.
🔶 LICENSE AND CREDITS
This work is licensed under Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). More information here: creativecommons.org
This indicator utilizes a TypeScript implementation of the Normal Inverse function as a reference, which can be found here : github.com
Special thanks to the authors of the referenced code for providing a foundation upon which this indicator was built.
🔶 UPDATES
Current Version: 1.0.0
For future updates, please check the comment section.
🔶 CONTACT
For any questions or suggestions, please feel free to contact @RickSimpson on TradingView.
Earnings LevelsI am proud to announce that the formerly secret "Key Earnings Levels" graphing tool will be freely available to TradingView users whereas before it was only available by monthly or annual subscription since its invention here at TradingView many years ago by Tim West. TradingView code writers wrote the original code for using this powerful tool and then Johannes Falkenburg re-wrote the code several years ago.
The most important FOUR days a year in a stock chart are the days that the company gives its quarterly update. Since the GRAND majority of companies have earnings, the indicator is called the "Key Earnings Level", or KEL for short. The unique part of the release of the quarterly update is that it can be "before the open" or "after the close" and the price action leading up to the earnings and immediately after the earnings are useful for future reference, as you'll see shortly.
The Key Earnings indicator plots a triangle for the range around the day before and the day after earnings and draws a mid-point line to capture the over/under level for that report. That mid-point line is then extended into the future for a minimum of one quarter until the next earnings report and as long as a year with the current code.
This triangle plot allows you to see how a stock is trading RELATIVE TO where it was trading when earnings were announced and when a glimpse into the current quarter along with projections for the upcoming year.
Simply put: Key Earnings Levels are the easiest way to see how a stock is doing relative to the most important four days a year.
You can devise your own trading strategies around these levels, but I want you to have this information so you can see it and know it too. I've kept this little secret of Key Hidden Levels to myself and my followers in the Key Hidden Levels Chat Room here at TradingView for far too long. I have occasionally published charts with the Key Earnings Levels but have not made the code freely available to TradingView subscribers.
If anyone has paid me for access to these indicators and wants a refund, I will be glad to do that. This is too important to keep from everyone any longer. I think it is essential to make this available to everyone to make sure we all have the most advantage we can get when investing and trading in the markets.
I hope you can all find the powerful benefit from using Key Earnings Levels and please thank Johannes Falkenburg aka @Vollchaot here at TradingView for writing the latest version of this code.
The idea itself came from using TradingView and the powerful graphing and layout features here to track our observations and to do research. Thank you TradingView for such a great product.
I look forward to answering any questions.
Sincerely,
Tim West
3M_RANGE/ErkOzi/Hello Dear Investors,
Today, I'd like to introduce you to an indicator called "3M Range" and explain how this indicator is calculated, as well as the kind of strategy it can offer.
What is the 3M Range Indicator?
"3M Range" is an analytical tool designed to identify and visualize market movements within three-month periods. This indicator employs specific levels and Fibonacci levels to assist investors in understanding market trends.
How is it Calculated?
The indicator utilizes the opening, highest, and lowest prices of three-month periods starting on Mondays. By using these prices, the indicator tracks weekly opening prices and marks the opening prices every Monday.
How Does the Indicator's Strategy Work?
Using this indicator, you can refine your long-term investment strategies:
Identify Three-Month Periods: The indicator follows the opening, highest, and lowest prices in three-month periods. This allows for a clearer understanding of long-term trends.
Utilize Fibonacci Levels: The indicator calculates Fibonacci levels to show support and resistance levels. These levels can help predict potential reversals or ongoing movements.
Observe Monday Opening Prices: The indicator distinctly marks Monday opening prices. This helps you capture potential movements at the beginning of the week.
Evaluate Trends and Opportunities: By using the indicator, you can observe long-term trends and potential market opportunities more clearly.
In Conclusion,
The "3M Range" indicator provides long-term investors with a better analytical tool by showcasing market movements within three-month periods. The indicator marks Monday opening prices and allows for analysis supported by Fibonacci levels. By using this indicator, you can shape your long-term investment strategies more consciously.
Always remember that, as with anything, making careful and informed decisions is crucial when investing. I hope this indicator helps you better navigate your long-term investments.
Note: Understanding market risks and utilizing analytical tools carefully is always important. Best of luck!
Baha'i Reversal Points [CC]The Baha'i Reversal Points is a custom creation that combines some of my favorite passions, creating stock indicator scripts and my faith. The Baha'i Faith believes in the oneness of God and all religions, and sees the number 9 as significant because that is the number of major world religions as well as the Baha'i symbol is a nine-pointed star. The number 19 is also seen as significant because in the Baha'i calendar, there are 19 months, and each month is made up of 19 days. Anyway, with all that being explained, I created these reversal points to find the points where the last 19 highs or lows are higher or lower, respectively than the previous high or low nine days ago. As with many indicators, this does have some hits and misses but does a pretty good job of finding reversal points based on these criteria.
There are a few different ways to analyze this data to determine when to buy or sell. I have set the default behavior for when we encounter the first time that the amount of highs or lows is greater than or equal to the length amount using a crossover or crossunder alert. You could also ignore the crossover or crossunder alerts and buy when the count is greater than or equal to the length, which can happen for extended periods depending on the underlying trend. Overall, buy when the buy label appears and sell when the sell label appears.
Let me know if there are any other custom indicators or scripts you would like to see me publish!
