EURUSD COT Trend StrategyThis is a long term/investment type of strategy designed to have a good idea about where the big trend direction is headed.
Its logic, its made entirely on the COT report, mainly from looking into the net non comercial positions aka the speculators.
For bullish trend we look that the difference between long non comercial vs short non comercial is higher than 0
For bearish trend we look that the difference between long non comercial vs short non comercial is lower than 0.
This is mainly as an educational tool, for a full strategy, I recommend implement other things into it, like technical analysis or risk management.
If you have any questions, please let me know !
Comprometimento dos Traders (COT)
Bitfinex Shorts StratOverview
This strat applies the data from BITFINEX:USDSHORTS to the RSI indicator in order to provide SHORT/LONG entries as the number of contracts goes up and down. Although Bitfinex has lost relevance over the years its generally considered an exchange dominated by smart money rather than retail. I'd like to see if any insights can be gained by following their trading behaviour.
How to use
Select the underlying security you wish to trade and load the indicator. Select the appropriate short security by searching in the Bitfinex Short Symbol. RSI settings apply to short symbol not the actual asset. Strategy shorts the underlying asset when shorts rise and longs when they drop. The shorts symbol will follow the value of the loaded chart. Works best on 4 hour chart.
Why use shorts only rather than both long/shorts?
Bitfinex longs seem to be on a long-term uptrend accounting for 25x the number of shorts. Might be enormous confidence on part of the whales, but more likely reflects selling spot and buying perp. Given the size disparity and price action I don't think longs info is adding much.
Problems with script:
a) We don't really know the intentions of short players (e.g. speculation or hedging spot)
b) The script uses a decline in shorts as a long signal
c) RSI is a blunt tool there are probably better options for calculating high/lows in shorts
d) Shorts are accumulated both at highs and also when BTC price is already heavily trending down. This suggests some are speculative (at the highs) or protective/hedging during a decline
Takeaways:
Based on this strat Bitfinex whales are more wrong than right.
Results don't carry across well into altcoins using the accompanying short symbol. However, what is interesting is that applying the BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS to altcoin charts does work pretty well.
Strat needs some refinement to control for entries under different circumstances.
Probably not a great idea to use this as a strategy in isolation, but highlights how Bitfinex whale behaviour is a good gauge to follow.
COT + ema + aux tickerPurpose: Create a script for backtesting the idea that COT can steer weekly Bias on Forex Market.
How does it works: the script use Commercials Delta Conctract, EMA of the selected ticker, EMA of 2 auxiliary tickers (e.g. correlated ticker) to generates buy and sell signals, it allows to include or not each of these.
If you use all the indicator, The buy or sell signals are generated following that rules:
(Example for buy signals on GBPCAD)
1) Commercials add net contract to GBP futures + remove net contract to CAD
2) EMA of GBPCAD is rising
3) EMA of 1st aux ticker is rising (or decline if select inv option)
4) EMA of 2nd aux ticker is rising (or decline if select inv option)
The scripts set the stop at low of the week for long orders and high of the week for shorts.
The exit strategy is to exit at first week of profit
How could you use it:
1) Choose your FX Ticker e.g. GBPCAD and set 1W TimeFrame
2) Select ticker in the strategy setting, remember to select the currency in right order, if you want to study GBP CAD 1st currency is GBP and 2nd CAD
3) Choose if you want to use EMA (and its period of calculation)
4) Choose if you want to use a aux ticker, the direction, and the relative ema period
What could be better;
1) you can just buy on begin of the week.
2) the exit strategy isn't best you can do
3) No level of delta contract is consider, its generate a buy signial also for 1 contract in the right direction
For any question, suggestion of improvemet, ideas, insult:) write to me
It all started from a script i find here on tradingview that extract COT data. Don't remember the name of that guy but Thanks a lot.
My English isn't perfect but i hope you can understand as well.
