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MicroStrategy Bitcoin Premium v2 [Kendrick_Chan]

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In 2020, MicroStrategy, under the leadership of CEO Michael Saylor, began purchasing large amounts of Bitcoin to hedge against inflation and diversify its corporate treasury. This move transformed MicroStrategy into one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, with the company continually increasing its holdings through additional purchases funded by issuing new shares and convertible bonds.

The MicroStrategy Bitcoin Premium indicator is a dynamic tool that underscores the enthusiasm of equity market investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock. This indicator measures the premium investors are willing to pay for MSTR shares relative to the company's Bitcoin and cash holdings, reflecting the traditional market's eagerness to hold Bitcoin indirectly.

How Does It Work:

When MicroStrategy issues convertible bonds, cash level increases and all CB are assumed to convert to stocks diluting the shares.

In case of sales of MSTR new shares, cash level increases and diluted shares are adjusted tentatively before the quarterly financial reports.

In the event of Bitcoin purchases, the Bitcoins holding increases while cash level decreases.

Premium = Assumed Diluted Market Cap / ( Bitcoins Value + Cash and Cash Equivalents ) - 100%


How To Use:

By understanding and utilizing the MicroStrategy Bitcoin Premium indicator, traders and investors can make more informed decisions, whether they are swing trading MSTR, gauging Bitcoin demand, or seeking arbitrage opportunities.


1. MSTR Swing Traders

Swing traders can leverage the indicator to identify potential MSTR entry and exit points based on the overbought or oversold conditions of the stock.


2. Bitcoin Investors and Traders

The premium indicator can serve Bitcoin investors as a proxy for gauging overall market demand. A high premium indicates strong demand for Bitcoin exposure through MSTR, reflecting broader market enthusiasm for Bitcoin. A low premium suggests reduced demand.

Bitcoin traders may also anticipate the Bitcoin demand driven by MicroStrategy:

a) Shen the premium is high, MicroStrategy could issue new shares or convertible bonds to raise funds and buy more Bitcoins.

b) Arbitrageurs might also short sell MSTR and buy the equivalent Bitcoins.


3. MSTR-Bitcoin Arbitrageurs

Arbitrage traders can use the premium indicator to exploit price discrepancies between MSTR stock and Bitcoin. This strategy profits from any convergence between the stock price and the value of the underlying Bitcoin holdings.

The indicator helps identify optimal times to enter and exit arbitrage positions, minimizing risk and maximizing potential returns by capitalizing on market inefficiencies.
Notas de Lançamento
MicroStrategy buys 55500 Bitcoins for 5.4b at 26 Nov 2024.
She should have sold over 77B of new shares but pending for announcement.
Notas de Lançamento
Add a moving average and a customizable MA period.
Notas de Lançamento
MicroStrategy purchased 15400 Bitcoins for 1.5b on 2 Dec 2024
Notas de Lançamento
MicroStrategy purchased 21550, 15350 and 5262 BTC on 9, 16 and 23 Dec 2024 respectively.
Notas de Lançamento
- MicroStrategy purchased 26,845 BTC from 30/12/2024 to 27/1/2025.

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