Indices ALN Sessions

Indices ALN Sessions - Pattern Analysis with Historical Probabilities

Overview
This indicator analyzes overnight trading patterns across Asia, London, and New York sessions for major index futures (NQ, ES, YM), providing real-time probability analysis based on 15 years of historical data (2010-2025).

Pattern Detection Methodology
The indicator detects four distinct overnight patterns by comparing session high/low relationships:
1. London Engulfs Asia

Condition: London High > Asia High AND London Low < Asia Low
Interpretation: London session completely engulfed the Asia range



2. Asia Engulfs London

Condition: Asia High > London High AND Asia Low < London Low
Interpretation: London session remained within Asia's range




3. London Partial Up

Condition: London High > Asia High AND London Low ≥ Asia Low
Interpretation: London broke Asia high but not its low




4. London Partial Down

Condition: London Low < Asia Low AND London High ≤ Asia High
Interpretation: London broke Asia low but not the high



Probability Calculation
Probabilities are derived from historical analysis of 1-minute price data spanning 2010-2025 across all three indices. The system tracks:

Primary Targets: Most likely level to be taken during NY session based on pattern
Secondary Targets: Second most likely level
Asia Targets: Probability of reaching untouched Asia levels (for partial patterns)
Engulfment Probability: Likelihood of NY session taking all four levels

Day-of-Week Specificity
Each pattern has unique probability profiles for Monday through Friday, as market behavior varies significantly by day. The indicator automatically selects the appropriate probability set based on the current trading day.
Conditional Probability Logic
The indicator dynamically adjusts probabilities as levels are taken during the NY session:

When the Primary target is taken first → Shows conditional probability for Secondary target
When Secondary is taken before Primary → Adjusts Primary probability based on historical sequences
Real-time tracking shows which levels have been hit with checkmark confirmations

How Probabilities Were Derived
Data was collected from 15 years of 1-minute futures data for NQ, ES, and YM. For each trading day:

Asia session high/low recorded (8:00 PM - 2:00 AM EST)
London session high/low recorded (2:00 AM - 8:00 AM EST)
Pattern type classified
NY session behavior tracked (8:00 AM - 4:00 PM EST)
Level breaks recorded with sequence order
Statistical frequencies calculated by pattern, day, and instrument

Sample sizes vary but typically include 200-500+ occurrences per pattern/day combination over the 15-year period.

Visual Components
Session Boxes: Color-coded rectangles showing Asia (Yellow), London (Blue), and NY (Red) sessions with their high/low ranges.
Pivot Lines: Horizontal lines marking session highs and lows that extend until broken or until the drawing cutoff time.
Pattern Labels: Automatic labeling at NY open identifying which of the four patterns has formed.
Probability Table: Real-time table showing:

Current pattern type
Instrument type (NQ/ES/YM) and day of week
Sample size (when using dynamic stats)
Primary, Secondary, and Asia target probabilities
Engulfment probability
Live confirmations as levels are taken

Color Coding:
Green background: 70%+ probability
Lime: 50-70% probability
Orange: 30-50% probability
Red: Confirmed (level taken)

Settings & Inputs
Historical Stats
Instrument Type: Select NQ, ES, or YM (each has unique probability data)
Use Dynamic Stats: Toggle between historical probabilities and live collection mode

Sessions:
Customizable session times (default: Asia 8PM-2AM, London 2AM-8AM, NY 8AM-4PM EST)
Session box transparency and colors
Toggle session boxes and text on/off

Pivots:
Show/hide pivot lines and labels
Extend pivots until mitigated or past mitigation
Alert when pivots are broken
Midpoint display option

Probabilities:
Show/hide probability table
Table position and size customization
Pattern label display toggle

Opening Prices:
Optional horizontal lines at key times (midnight,18:00, 09:30, etc.)

How to Use:
Apply to 5-minute chart of NQ, ES, or YM futures
Select your instrument in settings to match the chart
Wait for NY session open - Pattern will be identified and probabilities displayed
Monitor the probability table - Primary targets show highest probability levels
Watch for confirmations - Checkmarks appear as levels are taken
Note conditional updates - Probabilities adjust based on which level breaks first

Trading Applications:
Directional bias: High probability targets suggest likely NY session movement
Level awareness: Know which session highs/lows are most likely to be tested
Risk management: Lower probability scenarios may warrant tighter stops
Sequence planning: Conditional probabilities help anticipate multi-level moves

What Makes This Different:
Unlike standard session indicators that only display ranges, this tool:

Classifies specific overnight pattern formations:
Provides quantified probabilities based on extensive historical analysis
Updates in real-time with conditional logic as the session develops
Distinguishes between different indices (NQ/ES/YM) and days of week
Tracks level-break sequences, not just final outcomes

Notes:
Probabilities are based on historical frequencies and do not guarantee future results
Best used on 1, 5, and 15-minute timeframes for optimal session visualization
Works on continuous futures contracts or /NQ, /ES, /YM symbols