Green/Red Candle Probability (EMA 7, SMA 20, SMA 200)

ontem

### Strategy Explanation for Candle Probability Indicator

This script is designed to calculate the **probability of bullish (green) and bearish (red) candles** over a given analysis period. It leverages three key moving averages to identify market trends and display these probabilities directly on the chart, making it easier for traders to make informed decisions.

#### **How the Script Works:**
1. **Trend Detection Using Moving Averages:**
- The script calculates three moving averages:
- **EMA (Exponential Moving Average) over 7 periods**
- **SMA (Simple Moving Average) over 20 periods**
- **SMA over 200 periods**

The trend is classified as:
- **Bullish:** When EMA 7 > SMA 20 > SMA 200
- **Bearish:** When EMA 7 < SMA 20 < SMA 200

2. **Candle Analysis:**
The script analyzes the last "n" candles (based on the user-defined lookback period) to count the number of bullish and bearish candles:
- **Bullish (green) candle:** The closing price is higher than the opening price.
- **Bearish (red) candle:** The closing price is lower than the opening price.

3. **Probability Calculation:**
The probabilities are calculated as a percentage of bullish and bearish candles in the lookback period:
- **Green Probability (%) = (Number of Green Candles / Lookback Period) × 100**
- **Red Probability (%) = (Number of Red Candles / Lookback Period) × 100**

4. **Displaying Results in a Table:**
The results are displayed in a table on the chart, including:
- **Green Probability (%)**
- **Red Probability (%)**
- **Current Trend (Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral)**

#### **Strategy Overview:**
This indicator provides traders with a quick overview of the candle probabilities and the current market trend based on moving averages. It helps traders:
- Gauge the likelihood of bullish or bearish candles appearing in the near future.
- Identify the prevailing trend (bullish, bearish, or neutral).
- Adjust their trading strategies based on statistical probabilities rather than assumptions.

### **Important Notes:**
- The lookback period can be customized between **10 and 200 periods**.
- The indicator does not provide buy/sell signals but gives insights into market behavior.

By understanding the candle probabilities and the trend, traders can better assess market conditions and improve their decision-making process.