RC - Crypto Scalper v3

Cryptocurrency scalping strategy for perpetual futures with risk management and automation capabilities.

## Strategy Overview

This strategy identifies high-probability scalping opportunities in cryptocurrency perpetual futures markets using adaptive position sizing, dynamic stop losses, and intelligent exit management to maintain consistent risk-adjusted returns across varying market conditions.

## Technical Foundation

The strategy employs exponential moving averages for trend detection, Bollinger Bands for volatility measurement and mean reversion signals, RSI for momentum confirmation and overbought/oversold conditions, ATR for dynamic volatility-based stop placement, and VWAP for institutional price level identification. These technical indicators are combined with volume analysis and optional multi-timeframe confirmation to filter low-probability setups.

## Entry Methodology

The strategy identifies trading opportunities using three complementary approaches that can be enabled individually or in combination:

Momentum-Based Entries: Detects directional price movements aligned with short-term and intermediate-term trend indicators, with momentum oscillator confirmation to avoid entries at exhaustion points. Volume analysis provides additional confirmation of institutional participation.

Mean Reversion Entries: Identifies price extremes using statistical volatility bands combined with momentum divergence, targeting high-probability reversal zones in ranging market conditions. Entries require initial price structure confirmation to reduce false signals.

Institutional Flow Entries: Monitors volume-weighted price levels to identify areas where institutional orders are likely concentrated, entering on confirmed breaks of these key levels with supporting directional bias from trend indicators.

Each methodology uses distinct combinations of the technical indicators mentioned above, with specific parameter relationships and confirmation requirements that can be customized based on trader preference and market conditions.

## Exit Framework

Adaptive Stop Loss: Uses ATR-based stops (default 0.7x multiplier on 14-period ATR) that automatically adjust to current market volatility. Stop distance expands during volatile periods to avoid premature stops while tightening during consolidation to protect capital. Alternative percentage-based stops available for traders preferring fixed-distance risk management.

Trailing Profit System: Employs a dual-target exit approach combining fixed limit orders with dynamic trailing stops. The system activates trailing stops when positions reach profitable thresholds, allowing winning trades to capture extended moves while protecting accumulated gains. The high fixed limit (6R default) serves as a ceiling for exceptional moves while the trailing mechanism handles the majority of exits at optimal profit levels.

Time-Based Management: Implements maximum holding period constraints (50 bars default) to prevent capital from being trapped in directionless price action. This ensures consistent capital turnover and prevents the strategy from holding through extended consolidation periods.

Breakeven Protection: Automatically adjusts stop loss to entry price plus commission costs once trades reach predefined profit thresholds (0.7R default), eliminating downside risk on positions that have demonstrated directional follow-through.

## Risk Management

Position Sizing: Dynamic position sizing based on account equity percentage risk model (2% default). Calculates optimal position size based on entry price, stop distance, and account risk tolerance. Includes maximum position exposure caps and minimum position size thresholds to ensure practical trade execution.

Daily Loss Limits: Automatic trading suspension when intraday losses exceed configured threshold (5% of equity default). Prevents catastrophic drawdown days and removes emotional decision-making during adverse market conditions. Resets automatically at the start of each new trading day.

Leverage Controls: Comprehensive leverage monitoring with built-in liquidation protection for margined positions. Strategy calculates liquidation prices based on leverage settings and automatically closes positions approaching critical margin levels, preventing forced liquidations.

Exposure Management: Multiple layers of position size controls including maximum position value as percentage of equity (50% default), leverage-adjusted margin requirements, and minimum capital availability thresholds before opening new positions.

## Market Filters

Session-Based Filtering: Configurable trading windows for Asian (00:00-08:00 UTC), London (08:00-16:00 UTC), and New York (13:00-21:00 UTC) sessions. Allows traders to focus on specific market hours or avoid illiquid periods based on their asset and trading style.

Volatility Requirements: Minimum and maximum ATR percentage thresholds ensure strategy only operates within optimal volatility ranges. Prevents trading during both insufficient movement periods and extreme volatility events where execution quality deteriorates.

Trend Alignment: Optional higher timeframe trend filter ensures directional bias aligns with broader market structure, reducing counter-trend entries during strong directional moves.

Volume Confirmation: Configurable volume requirements for entry validation, ensuring sufficient market participation and reducing false signals during low-liquidity periods.

## Automation Support

Built-in webhook integration generates JSON payloads compatible with popular broker automation platforms. Alert system provides comprehensive notifications for all entry signals, exit executions, risk limit breaches, and daily trading status updates. Supports both automated and manual execution workflows.

## Settings Explanation

Initial Capital: $5,000
Selected as realistic starting point for retail traders entering crypto futures markets. Strategy scales proportionally - larger accounts show similar percentage returns with proportionally larger absolute gains and position sizes.

Risk Per Trade: 2%
Conservative default providing significant drawdown tolerance. With 51% historical win rate and positive expectancy, risking 2% per trade allows for extended losing streaks without account impairment. Adjustable from 0.5% (very conservative) to 5% (aggressive, experienced traders only).

Leverage: 10x
Standard cross-margin leverage for cryptocurrency perpetual futures. Combined with 2% risk setting and maximum 50% equity position size caps, actual exposure remains controlled despite leverage. Built-in liquidation protection provides additional safety layer.

Commission: 0.055%
Modeled on major exchange maker fee structures (Bybit, Binance Futures).

**Slippage: 50 ticks**
Ultra-conservative slippage assumption representing extreme worst-case execution scenarios. ETH perpetual tick size is $0.01, therefore 50 ticks equals $0.50 per side or $1.00 round trip slippage per trade.

Real-world slippage on 30-minute timeframe typically ranges from 2-5 ticks ($0.02-0.05 round trip) under normal conditions, with 10-20 ticks during highly volatile periods. The 50-tick setting assumes every single trade executes during extreme market stress conditions.

This ultra-conservative modeling approach means real-world trading performance under typical market conditions may exceed backtest results, as the strategy has been tested under punishing execution cost assumptions that represent worst-case scenarios rather than expected outcomes.

Stop Loss: ATR-based (0.7x multiplier)
Volatility-adaptive stops optimized for 30-minute cryptocurrency perpetuals. The 0.7x multiplier balances protection against premature stops due to normal market noise. Lower multipliers (0.5-0.6x) suitable for lower timeframes, higher multipliers (0.8-1.2x) for higher timeframes.

Take Profit: 6R (Risk:Reward)
High target designed to work in conjunction with trailing stop system rather than as primary exit mechanism. Historical analysis shows most profitable trades exit via trailing stops at lower multiples, with the 6R limit capturing occasional extended moves. This configuration allows the trailing stop system to operate optimally while providing upside capture on exceptional price runs.

Trailing Stop: Activates at 1R | Offset 0.5R
Trailing mechanism engages when position reaches 1:1 risk-reward, then maintains 0.5R distance from peak favourable price. This configuration allows profitable trades room to develop while protecting accumulated gains from reversals.

Maximum Holding Period: 50 bars
Automatic exit trigger after 50 bars (25 hours on 30-minute timeframe) prevents capital commitment to non-trending price action. Adjustable based on timeframe and trading style preferences.

## Backtest Performance

Test Period: November 2023 - November 2025 (2 years)
Asset: ETH/USDT Perpetual Futures
Timeframe: 30 minutes
Initial Capital: $5,000

Performance Metrics:
- Final Equity: $25,353.99
- Net Profit: $20,353.99
- Total Return: 407.08%
- Annualized Return: ~204%
- Total Trades: 2,549
- Winning Trades: 1,308 (51.28%)
- Losing Trades: 1,241 (48.72%)
- Profit Factor: 1.215
- Sharpe Ratio: 0.813
- Sortino Ratio: 6.428
- Maximum Drawdown: 11.53%
- Average Drawdown: <2%

Trade Statistics:
- Average Win: 1.15% per trade
- Average Loss: -0.98% per trade
- Win/Loss Ratio: 1.17:1
- Largest Win: 7.14%
- Largest Loss: -2.31%
- Average Trade Duration: ~8 hours
- Trades Per Month: ~106

Cost Analysis:
- Total Commission Paid: $21,277.06
- Commission as % of Gross Profit: 18.5%
- Modeled Slippage Impact: $2,549.00 (50 ticks per trade)
- Total Trading Costs: $23,826.06
- Net Profit After All Costs: $20,353.99

Risk-Adjusted Performance:
- Return/Max DD Ratio: 35.3
- Profit Per Trade: $7.98 average
- Risk of Ruin: <0.001% (with 2% risk, 51% win rate, 1.17 R:R)

## Bear Market Validation

To validate robustness across different market conditions, the strategy was additionally tested during the 2022 cryptocurrency bear market:

Test Period: May 2022 - November 2022 (7 months)
Market Conditions: ETH declined 57% (from ~$2,900 to ~$1,200)

Bear Market Results:
- Net Profit: $4,959.69
- Return: 99.19%
- Total Trades: 845
- Win Rate: 51.72%
- Maximum Drawdown: 18.54%
- Profit Factor: 1.235
- Outperformance vs Buy & Hold: +156.3%

The strategy demonstrated profitable performance during severe market decline, with short positions showing particular strength (54.1% win rate on shorts vs 49.4% on longs). This validates that the edge is not dependent on bullish market conditions and the multiple entry methodologies adapt naturally to different market environments.

## Recommended Usage

Optimal Timeframes:
- Primary: 30-minute (tested and optimized)
- Alternative: 1-hour (more selective, fewer trades)
- Not recommended: <15-minute (execution quality deteriorates)

Suitable Assets:
High-liquidity cryptocurrency perpetual futures recommended:
- BTC/USDT (>$2B daily volume)
- ETH/USDT (>$1B daily volume)
- SOL/USDT, AVAX/USDT (>$100M daily volume)
- Avoid low-liquidity pairs (<$50M daily volume)


Risk Configuration:
- Conservative: 1-1.5% per trade
- Moderate: 2-3% per trade (default: 2%)
- Aggressive: 3-5% per trade (requires discipline)

## Important Considerations

Backtesting vs Live Trading: Always paper trade first. Real-world results vary based on execution quality, broker-specific factors, network latency, and individual trade management decisions. Backtest performance represents historical simulation with ultra-conservative cost assumptions, not guaranteed future results.

Market Conditions: Strategy designed for liquid, actively-traded markets. Performance characteristics:
- Strong trends: Optimal (trailing stops capture extended moves)
- Ranging markets: Moderate (mean reversion component provides edge)
- Low volatility: Reduced (ATR filter prevents most entries)
- Extreme volatility: Protected (maximum volatility filter prevents entries)

Cost Impact: Commission represents approximately 18.5% of gross profit in backtests. The 50-tick slippage assumption is deliberately punitive - typical execution will likely be 5-10x better (2-10 ticks actual vs 50 ticks modeled), meaning real-world net results may significantly exceed backtest performance under normal market conditions.

Execution Quality: 30-minute timeframe provides sufficient time for order placement and management. Automated execution recommended for consistency. Manual execution requires discipline to follow signals without hesitation or second-guessing.

Starting Procedures:
1. Run backtest on your specific asset and timeframe
2. Paper trade for minimum 50 trades or 2 weeks
3. Start with minimum position sizes (0.5-1% risk)
4. Gradually scale to target risk levels as confidence builds
5. Monitor actual execution costs vs backtest assumptions

## Strategy Limitations

- Requires liquid markets; performance degrades significantly on low-volume pairs
- No built-in news event calendar; traders should manually avoid scheduled high-impact events
- Weekend/holiday trading may experience wider spreads and different price behaviour
- Does not model spread costs (assumes mid-price fills); add 1-2 ticks additional cost for market orders
- Performance during market structure changes (regime shifts) may differ from backtest period
- Requires consistent monitoring during active trading hours for optimal automated execution
- Slippage assumptions are deliberately extreme; actual slippage will typically be much lower

## Risk Disclosure

Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk of loss. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. This strategy will experience losing streaks and drawdowns. The 11.53% maximum historical drawdown in bull market testing and 18.54% in bear market testing do not represent ceilings - larger drawdowns are possible and should be expected in live trading.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions evolve, and historical edge may diminish or disappear. No strategy works in all market conditions. The strategy has been tested with extremely conservative slippage assumptions (50 ticks per trade) that significantly exceed typical execution costs; this provides a safety margin but does not eliminate risk.

Capital at Risk: Only trade with capital you can afford to lose completely. The strategy's positive historical performance across both bull and bear markets does not eliminate the possibility of significant losses or account impairment.

Not Financial Advice: This strategy is an educational tool, not investment advice. Users are solely responsible for their trading decisions, risk management, and outcomes. The developer assumes no liability for trading losses.

Leverage Warning: Trading with leverage can result in losses exceeding initial investment. Ensure you understand leverage mechanics and liquidation risks before using leveraged products.

## Technical Requirements

- TradingView Premium subscription (for strategy testing and alerts)
- Understanding of risk management principles
- Familiarity with perpetual futures mechanics
- Broker account supporting crypto perpetuals (if trading live)
- For automation: Webhook-compatible execution platform

## Version History

v3.0 - November 2025 (Initial Release)
- Multi-methodology entry system (Momentum, Mean Reversion, VWAP)
- Comprehensive risk management framework
- Adaptive exit system with trailing stops
- Session and volatility filtering
- Webhook automation support
- Validated across bull market (2024-25) and bear market (2022) periods
- Tested with ultra-conservative 50-tick slippage assumptions

Disclaimer: This strategy is provided "as-is" for educational purposes. Past performance does not indicate future results. All backtests conducted with 50-tick slippage (ultra-conservative assumptions). Actual trading costs typically significantly lower. Trade responsibly and at your own risk.