Macro Regime Dashboard

HOW TO READ THE MACRO REGIME DASHBOARD

Think of this as a weather report for markets, not a trade signal generator.

1 START WITH THE REGIME (TOP ROW)
MACRO REGIME

RISK-ON → tailwinds for equities & beta

MIXED → chop, fakeouts, smaller size

RISK-OFF → capital preservation first

This answers:

“Should I be pressing risk right now?”

Rule of thumb

Stay aligned with the regime

Don’t fight it with individual stock ideas

2 THE SCORE (SECOND ROW)
Regime Score

Range: roughly –5 to +5

+3 to +5 → strong risk-on

+1 to +2 → mild tailwind

–1 to +1 → transition / no edge

–2 to –5 → defensive environment

This answers:

“How confident is this environment?”

Position sizing rule

|Score| ≥ 3 → full size allowed

|Score| = 1–2 → reduced size

|Score| = 0 → mostly wait

3 EQUITIES ROW (SPY vs MA)
Equities

Risk+ → SPY above trend MA

Risk- → SPY below trend MA

This is your market participation check.

Interpretation

Risk-ON + Equities Risk+ = trends work

Risk-OFF + Equities Risk- = avoid longs

Mixed + Equities flipping = chop zone

4 CREDIT ROW (HYG / IEF)
Credit

Risk+ → credit spreads tightening

Risk- → credit stress building

This is the canary in the coal mine.

Very important rule

If Credit = Risk-, be skeptical of rallies

Credit usually breaks before equities

5 VOLATILITY ROW (VIX)
Volatility

Low → trend-following works

High → mean reversion, hedging, patience

This answers:

“Is the market calm or nervous?”

Trade adjustment

Low vol → options selling, swing trades

High vol → smaller size, wider stops, hedges

6 RATES ROW (10Y YIELD)
Rates

Risk+ → yields falling

Risk- → yields rising

This tells you who wins inside equities.

Mapping

Falling rates → tech, growth, duration

Rising rates → value, energy, financials

7 USD ROW (DXY)
USD

Risk+ → USD weakening

Risk- → USD strengthening

This controls global liquidity.

Mapping

Weak USD → commodities, EM, gold

Strong USD → US assets outperform, EM struggles

8 200 MA CONTEXT (LONG TREND)
Bull / Bear Context

Bull → regime shifts resolve upward

Bear → rallies fail more often

This is your macro gravity.

Rule

In Bear context → be quicker to de-risk

In Bull context → give trades more room

9 TILT (BOTTOM ROW)
Tilt

This is your portfolio bias, not a trade.

Examples:

Growth / Equities / EM

Cash / Defensives / Hedges

Reduce size / wait

This answers:

“What should my book look like this week?”



EXAMPLE: STRONG RISK-ON

Regime: RISK-ON

Score: +4

Credit: Risk+

Vol: Low

Action

Full size allowed

Favor trend trades

Reduce hedges

EXAMPLE: RISK-OFF

Regime: RISK-OFF

Score: –3

Credit: Risk-

Vol: High

Action

Raise cash

Defensive ETFs

Avoid dip-buying

EXAMPLE: MIXED / TRANSITION

Score near 0

Credit flat

Vol rising

Action

Smaller size

Pairs trades

Wait for confirmation