Nvidia Q3 Preview: Can Anything Stop the AI King?

Nvidia NVDA reports third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Wednesday, November 19, after the market closes. Wall Street expects about $1.25 in EPS and roughly $54.8 billion in revenue. For a company valued over $4 trillion, those estimates still imply more than 50% YoY growth in both earnings and revenue. The stock is up roughly 40% this year, driven by the strength of the AI investment cycle. Nvidia briefly became the first company to touch a $5 trillion market cap, although the shares have since pulled back.

Last quarter, revenue rose 56% year over year to $46.7 billion, supported by $41.1 billion from the data center segment. Blackwell data center revenue grew 17% sequentially, reinforcing the idea that Nvidia remains at the center of AI infrastructure spending. One pressure point was China. Because of export restrictions, Nvidia recorded no H20 sales to Chinese customers, and the company acknowledged that the regulatory backdrop continues to limit visibility in that market.

This quarter comes at a moment when market participants have been fearful about the possibility of an AI bubble. Concerns have also risen around the pace of hyperscaler capital expenditures, with some investors questioning whether spending will ever pay off. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has pushed back on the bubble narrative, arguing that AI adoption is still in its early stages and that the buildout will take years, not quarters. For Nvidia, those debates raise the stakes. Investors will be looking for signals that data center demand remains broad, not just driven by a handful of customers pushing forward large clusters.

Beyond demand, the Street will watch the health of Nvidia's data center business and the early ramp of Blackwell Ultra. Supply constraints and delivery timing into early 2026 will also be watched closely, along with any updated commentary on geopolitical exposure and product availability.

Given the importance of Nvidia in this AI cycle, its valuation remains a point of debate. Nvidia trades around 28x forward earnings and 17x forward sales. For Nvidia to regain momentum toward the $5 trillion mark, management will need to show that growth can remain strong and that hyperscaler spending is beginning to normalise into a longer, more durable cycle.