US treausires are showing bullish pattern

6 de mar.

Treasuries are trying to recover after making some nice and deep pullback in last few months as FED decided to wait on more economic data before they may finally cut rates. The pattern on 10 year US notes is looking bullish here after that impulse up since Novemeber, seen as wave (A), so obviously this tells us in which direction market can move after a retracement. Probably up! Well, this retracement in three waves is already visible on the charts below, so speculators can be positioned for more upside into wave (C) in months ahead, especially if FED is really going to cut rates this year, and if maybe NFP data finally disappoints this Friday. In such case, I think metals can explode, while the dollar sells off. Speculation for BOJ rate change in March and possibly"hawkish" ECB tomorrow (compared to FED) can help the dollar to be sold IMO. The only concern is risk-off, but bearish dollar/ bullish stocks correlation hasn't been there for a while anyway.

Hope you love the analysis.
GH