BTCUSD - LET'S ZOOM OUT: DOES IT SEEM THAT BEARISH?
A simple but effective chart. Usually the simplest things are the right ones. As happened in 2015, in 2018, 2019 and now in 2020 we are holding the 200weekly MA, with a positive indication on RSI compared to 2018 lows.
Human nature tend to be influenced by just recent events. The market went down in the last months so it will go down forever, or worse, to 0. The same holds or euphoria moments, you see a thing growing and you think it will grow forever. That is why we have to stay rational and analyze things from a differnt perspective and with cold mind.
I am shorting btc, yes, but I expect a consolidation around these level between 6000 and 5500. That is why I bought back 66% of my position at 6100 and the rest at 5500 in case (as per linked idea). Lower levels are possible but not probable, and honestly I would not be that happy if the price would go there because it will threaten the run and may signify that the recovery could take years.
Honestly I think that without covid we would already be over 12,000. An exogenous event came and priorities changed now for market participants in terms of liquidity, and fear came in, so we have to adapt. As I said, I expect a consolidatio in the 5500-6000 interval, but once the whole thing will stabilize and people will realize that gold and btc are the only measures againt bazookas around the world in the long term, we will be rich. With this liquidity flood I think that first stocks and bonds will rise, then, when margin on those will be again super tight, liquidity will move towards anti-inflationary assets. They are not that appealing now. BUT what is happening never happened since financial markets as we know exist and as far as records show us, so we always have to keep an eye on ALL markets and never stop analyzing and reason.
I genuinely though that we would never see BTC below 10k again, we all prayed that we should have bought more at 4k-5k levels, so now that it is at 2017 prices, it is time to accumulate, not to sell !
Stay rational, stay safe
Human nature tend to be influenced by just recent events. The market went down in the last months so it will go down forever, or worse, to 0. The same holds or euphoria moments, you see a thing growing and you think it will grow forever. That is why we have to stay rational and analyze things from a differnt perspective and with cold mind.
I am shorting btc, yes, but I expect a consolidation around these level between 6000 and 5500. That is why I bought back 66% of my position at 6100 and the rest at 5500 in case (as per linked idea). Lower levels are possible but not probable, and honestly I would not be that happy if the price would go there because it will threaten the run and may signify that the recovery could take years.
Honestly I think that without covid we would already be over 12,000. An exogenous event came and priorities changed now for market participants in terms of liquidity, and fear came in, so we have to adapt. As I said, I expect a consolidatio in the 5500-6000 interval, but once the whole thing will stabilize and people will realize that gold and btc are the only measures againt bazookas around the world in the long term, we will be rich. With this liquidity flood I think that first stocks and bonds will rise, then, when margin on those will be again super tight, liquidity will move towards anti-inflationary assets. They are not that appealing now. BUT what is happening never happened since financial markets as we know exist and as far as records show us, so we always have to keep an eye on ALL markets and never stop analyzing and reason.
I genuinely though that we would never see BTC below 10k again, we all prayed that we should have bought more at 4k-5k levels, so now that it is at 2017 prices, it is time to accumulate, not to sell !
Stay rational, stay safe
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