Daily Briefing on BTC | USDJPY | S&P500
Atualizado
Here’s a quick BTC wrap-up analysis for you. Today all we’ve really done is chop in the range of 6800-6900.
I entered a long at 6915 and was stopped out at 6780. The reasons why I shorted BTC at that level are simple.
Looking at the hourly timeframe, we can see the 6946 area is key SR level established from about March 19 that was tested multiple times. Today price tested that level and it broke, now we’re testing it as resistance.
Because the current SR level has not held as support, I'll short and see how strong this resistance is. If I’m wrong, I’ll get stopped out above the previous wick of 7025. A deeper stop would be at the 2020 yearly open or just above the 7097 SR level that we haven’t tested as resistance.
It’s not necessary to test the 7100 area as resistance, for example, when price broke down in the beginning of March, there were moments of consolidation, price would break up a little bit, but price didn’t have any meaningful retest of the breakdown area.
After almost a month of climbing in this channel, it’s finally broken down. I am of the opinion that the 6900 area will not hold. If we begin to consolidate and sellers overpower support, the next strong support level is around 6200.
I’m glad I took profit somewhere around 3.04, as price flew up, but if you look lower timeframes how perfectly LINK is respecting the key marker around 3.274. Bears rejected price from climbing beyond that. This is an example of how professionals and algorithms defend their positions — They don’t let price close above specific areas. The same happened with BTC, it’s the same reason why 6946 is a strong SR level.
Price doesn’t move randomly, there’s specific reasons why price rejects certain levels, closes where it does, wicks where it does, and why it finds support or resistance.
BTC is forming a bearish candle on the daily unless we return above 7165, the yearly open, but I am doubtful of this. I’ve been bearish for a long time, but you now understand the reasoning that supports my stance. Look at what’s happening in other asset classes, even the S&P500 is hitting a 50% Fib level which should be key resistance.
The horizontal level touched in August and October 2019 is now being tested as resistance, leaving behind a candle that looks like an abandoned baby. This pattern is bearish if the following candle is also bearish. This tells me the stock market is positioned for a potential rejection at a key level. For this reason BTC may be positioned for a sell-off.
Bottom line: I am looking for continuation of this breakdown. Looking at daily levels on BTC, 6400 was tested enough times to be an SR level and may be the next magnet for price to test.
USDJPY I don’t like holding FX trades into the weekend, I’ll consider closing the trade over the next hour. I’ll let you guys know what I do. We’re resting on the 0.382% fib on the hourly timeframe, and I still think it’ resembles a bull flag.
If this consolidation starts breaking I’m fairly confident we’re going to 6400 at least, because that means all of the buyers from the previous three days of consolidation around that SR level are underwater. If price breaks down here, that means there’s a whale that’s willing to destroy all these positions and short them down further. It’s a game of who’s the bigger whale.
I entered a long at 6915 and was stopped out at 6780. The reasons why I shorted BTC at that level are simple.
Looking at the hourly timeframe, we can see the 6946 area is key SR level established from about March 19 that was tested multiple times. Today price tested that level and it broke, now we’re testing it as resistance.
Because the current SR level has not held as support, I'll short and see how strong this resistance is. If I’m wrong, I’ll get stopped out above the previous wick of 7025. A deeper stop would be at the 2020 yearly open or just above the 7097 SR level that we haven’t tested as resistance.
It’s not necessary to test the 7100 area as resistance, for example, when price broke down in the beginning of March, there were moments of consolidation, price would break up a little bit, but price didn’t have any meaningful retest of the breakdown area.
After almost a month of climbing in this channel, it’s finally broken down. I am of the opinion that the 6900 area will not hold. If we begin to consolidate and sellers overpower support, the next strong support level is around 6200.
I’m glad I took profit somewhere around 3.04, as price flew up, but if you look lower timeframes how perfectly LINK is respecting the key marker around 3.274. Bears rejected price from climbing beyond that. This is an example of how professionals and algorithms defend their positions — They don’t let price close above specific areas. The same happened with BTC, it’s the same reason why 6946 is a strong SR level.
Price doesn’t move randomly, there’s specific reasons why price rejects certain levels, closes where it does, wicks where it does, and why it finds support or resistance.
BTC is forming a bearish candle on the daily unless we return above 7165, the yearly open, but I am doubtful of this. I’ve been bearish for a long time, but you now understand the reasoning that supports my stance. Look at what’s happening in other asset classes, even the S&P500 is hitting a 50% Fib level which should be key resistance.
The horizontal level touched in August and October 2019 is now being tested as resistance, leaving behind a candle that looks like an abandoned baby. This pattern is bearish if the following candle is also bearish. This tells me the stock market is positioned for a potential rejection at a key level. For this reason BTC may be positioned for a sell-off.
Bottom line: I am looking for continuation of this breakdown. Looking at daily levels on BTC, 6400 was tested enough times to be an SR level and may be the next magnet for price to test.
USDJPY I don’t like holding FX trades into the weekend, I’ll consider closing the trade over the next hour. I’ll let you guys know what I do. We’re resting on the 0.382% fib on the hourly timeframe, and I still think it’ resembles a bull flag.
If this consolidation starts breaking I’m fairly confident we’re going to 6400 at least, because that means all of the buyers from the previous three days of consolidation around that SR level are underwater. If price breaks down here, that means there’s a whale that’s willing to destroy all these positions and short them down further. It’s a game of who’s the bigger whale.
Nota
Nota
Join our Crypto movement with Alpha Trades
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.