Bitcoin Daily Update (day 195)

10 de set. de 2018

I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.


My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 28 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30
Previous analysis / position: “If you are not in a position then opening a short with one third of your desired position size at each level of resistance should provide a favorable risk:reward.” / Short ETH:USD. Took profit on 33% of position improving my average cost basis to $317.37 per ETH.
Patterns: Descending triangle
Horizontal support and resistance: S = $6,188 - $6,225 | R = $6,309 & $6,385
BTCUSDSHORTS: Appears to have created a higher low and is bouncing off a hammer.
Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0589%
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 = -4.73% | 26 = -6.27%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -9.38% | 128 = -11.81%
Volume: Volume decreasing as price tries to bounce.
FIB’s: 0.786 = $6,379 | 0.618 = $6,783
Candlestick analysis: Daily inverted hammer. Currently re exploring the wick.
Ichimoku Cloud: Tenken-Sen = $6,765 | Kijun-Sen and cloud = $7,165
TD’ Sequential: R6
Visible Range: Currently testing point of control (POC) with 2m - 1y lookback.
BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h = +/- 0 | 24h = -1.16% | 1w = -13.14% | 2w = -11.11% | 1m = -3.67%
Bollinger Bands: Bouncing off bottom band. MA = $6,700 | Tightest squeeze we’ve seen since April 24 2017.
Trendline: N/A
Daily Trend: Chop with a with a bullish bias.
Fractals: Up = $7,426 | Down = $5,866
On Balance Volume: Moving with price / no div’s
ADX: ADX > 25 while -DI is trying to coverge
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div' on daily.
RSI (30 setting): W = 48.98 | D = 44.13
Stoch: Posturing for buy signal

Summary: It still feels'' too early to breakdown $6,150 support. I feel like we need to range for another couple days or bounce up to the 12 EMA. I would stay away from opening a short at these levels in favor of waiting for a bounce. Retesting $6,600 - $6,700 and then breaking down $6,000 feels'' like the most likely outcome at this point.

If we do get a bounce then it will be a picture perfect shorting opportunity. You don’t not want to cost yourself that opportunity by entering too soon. Remain patient, let the price come to you, and never chase!