Is the spring of digital currency here

26 de out. de 2019

Yesterday there was a so-called great fortune in the market diffusion, although the news out is not yesterday, but the main launch market is yesterday, so you can also understand that someone has known the news on the 23rd, ahead of time hit. But from a technical point of view, the downward break here is real and there is a lot of selling, but yesterday's rebound, as you can see on the chart, is also real, it is a day level bottom deviation, and it is a very strong trend.

We see from the chart that there is a copy of the 831 market, but this technical rebound, has not broken the downtrend of the upper track, so we can only say that it is a rebound.

If sustainability is good today, or if the trend line is broken in the next 2-3 days (currently running between $9,100 and $9,000), maybe we can say that there is an uptrend here. But sorry, the uptrend could still be five waves.

Estimate this time pour cold water to be able to be scolded by the person, nevertheless I still want to analyze a market from different Angle.

The blockchain policy released by the Chinese government yesterday has been interpreted by many as a major positive, but I don't think so. There are several points of view, if there is a question, you can point out

1. The Chinese government has always been supportive of blockchain policy. This time, it may be highly different.

2, although for block open chain technology, but so far, didn't see anything about digital currency is open, I think any government, tax and currency are impossible to give up tools, otherwise there will be no decentralized currency was born, fb has just been rejected by the congress of the United States is a very typical case, I don't think the Chinese government will block chain and give up control of monetary development. So are those overly optimistic attitudes extreme?

3, the current block chain technology is still in the early, application scenario is not wide, and yesterday I just saw a survey, 60% of the block chain talent is around digital currency exchange, chain block is more of a current financial applications, but this is in conflict with existing China policy, I don't think the Chinese government will abandon the financial control, let the securities issue digital, is unlikely in the short term the existing digital exchange included in the official system.

4. It's nothing new for the People's Bank of China to issue COINS, but is this coin bitcoin? Arguably, I understand, it's more like Morgan dollar, which is used as an inter-bank settlement tool to reduce financial costs. Including function to fb, now may not be realistic, because China has led the world in the field of digital fiat, alipay and numerous financial payment licenses are widely used in China, can completely solve the problem of cash flow, to the Chinese government has also issued relevant laws, prohibit commercial agency refused to accept cash. Therefore, if alipay and other payment licenses are still very scarce, the direct transition to digital legal currency circulation, payment, I think is unreasonable. Maybe some people have ulterior motives.

5. Blockchain is not something that China does behind closed doors. It is a global industry. So after USA vetoed fb libra, China will look for an alternative? Will the Chinese government kill the goose that lays the golden egg? We have alipay, there are so many electronic financial license, why do we do this? The reason why fb is anxious is that he doesn't have this function. His appetite is so big that he touches the government's cake. But at that time, the United States, they will rely on the so-called democratic way to reject you, but China will not, we are a very strong government, so I think this logic does not make sense.

To sum up, I think this policy belongs to the benefit of blockchain undoubtedly, but whether it belongs to the digital currency, I remain skeptical.

But charts are everything. We analyze the market from a technical point of view, with as little emotion as possible and as much objectivity as possible.

Talk about the technical side

First of all, from the perspective of positions in futures contracts, the three major futures trading platforms of okex, bitmex and huobi all saw the closing of positions of tens of millions of dollars yesterday, but the performance after the closing of positions was not the same. The quarterly contracts of okex started to add positions after the reduction to about 430 million, which I understand may be the covering after the closing of short positions. Bitmex and houbi, on the other hand, continue to close positions, indicating a divergence in the main force of the market, which is worth noting.

Second, the K line of the week, after falling below wma36 here, has a strong rebound, and is now above wma6, but subject to wma18 (about $10000), this position is worth attention, because it also superimposed transaction concentration area.

Third, there is a diurnal macd bottom deviation, which belongs to a bullish trend. In the short term, it should be maintained, but a good stop loss should be set, such as the ma6 moving average breaking the stop loss, or hedging.