XBTEUR: Update
Atualizado
Bitcoin is very close to start trending up again, as I expected originally...a correction until August 1st. I specially like all the negativity and manipulation that forced people out of their positions, into altcoins as a hedge, in cash on the sidelines. Many wanted to buy back on dips after the surge off the lows after Bitmain started supporting Segwit in all their pools, but couldn't. Dips never came, and when they did come, it was after the market had surged above the weekly accumulation zone (white boxes). Sentiment then reached a peak, and I believe many bought the top, and were liquidated after the next dip started. The buy the dip crowd didn't buy, many reverted to shorting due to a 'triangle breakout' to the downside. These short term traders briefly were in profit, but if they didn't cover, the market has already liquidated them or is about to squeeze them out.
Now massive shorts are open, and I think the market is ready to burst higher, squeezing everyone and ther mother out of short trades, sending price to my bullish targets rather quickly. I'm holding all my crypto funds in
BTC as we speak, with a cost basis below 2000 for the last batch. I'll be looking to add after closing my short term margin longs in profit twice. My clients and me were in a drawdown briefly, but we have now recovered.
The weekly targets make me think Bitcoin will form a top by November, which aligns with the fundamentals as well, since that is the time required to proceed with a hard fork to increase block capacity, as part of the New York Agreement, which is the main reason, together with the BIP148 soft coup attempt, which cleverly forced the miners' hands into lettingBTC scale via Segwit, and sacrifice their beloved ASICBOOST. This comes with a price I'm sure, and it will be revealed to us, what their end game is in due time. I have a few theories, but need more data to confirm or disprove them.
The Bitcoin Cash hard fork, which is in reality, an altcoin until proven otherwise, is the key here. I will hold mine, once I receive the airdrop, as an insurance policy...I doubt -at least for now- that they manage to pull hash rate fromBTC in any significant manner but it's wise to be prepared for the worst by year end. This would be quite logical, and would match my long term technical forecasts making it a high probability scenario.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Now massive shorts are open, and I think the market is ready to burst higher, squeezing everyone and ther mother out of short trades, sending price to my bullish targets rather quickly. I'm holding all my crypto funds in
BTC as we speak, with a cost basis below 2000 for the last batch. I'll be looking to add after closing my short term margin longs in profit twice. My clients and me were in a drawdown briefly, but we have now recovered.The weekly targets make me think Bitcoin will form a top by November, which aligns with the fundamentals as well, since that is the time required to proceed with a hard fork to increase block capacity, as part of the New York Agreement, which is the main reason, together with the BIP148 soft coup attempt, which cleverly forced the miners' hands into letting
BTC scale via Segwit, and sacrifice their beloved ASICBOOST. This comes with a price I'm sure, and it will be revealed to us, what their end game is in due time. I have a few theories, but need more data to confirm or disprove them.The Bitcoin Cash hard fork, which is in reality, an altcoin until proven otherwise, is the key here. I will hold mine, once I receive the airdrop, as an insurance policy...I doubt -at least for now- that they manage to pull hash rate from
BTC in any significant manner but it's wise to be prepared for the worst by year end. This would be quite logical, and would match my long term technical forecasts making it a high probability scenario.Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Nota
The daily trend is now officially up in 
BTCEUR, what isn't clear is if the UAHF will be a real thing, or just another fud attempt only... Nota
Nota
Anyone read my fundamental commentary?I will expand it with my current thoughts, this trend is just starting, the last weekly one that is, and I'm already thinking of how and why it will end...
#1 BCH is not to be taken lightly I have come to realize. I think it's possible that it ends up concentrating more hash rate, as it becomes more profitable to mine following the next difficulty retarget. Timing for this event aligns with the time duration of the weekly uptrend, which implies that by then we can see a top in BTC. The top, might be when miners start flocking to BCH.
#2 The 2x part of the NYA's Segwit2x upgrade might be the catalyst to start a bear market in Bitcoin akin to the one that took place after the top in 2013. The only difference is, I don't think we will see such a dramatic drop, and volatility will be way, way lower...so, it is probable to see a calm, sideways chop for up to 20 months, starting in November/December.
What then? PoW change? PoS? 3 versions of Bitcoin? 2x coin, BCH, core/UASF?
I think chaos will ensue, with a high degree of probability. I will monitor the developments on the way up, and meanwhile I will continue to hold my free
BCH stake, which I rebought after selling higher, so, even if I'm wrong and it goes to $0, I will have locked in some profit.Nota
BTCEUR ready to move again Nota
All altcoins vs BTC, only two stand out: ETH and BCH.Waste of time and money, and a good way to underperform: being in altcoins now...
Nota
Next key event in BTCEUR is on the 21st: Segwit activation deadline, then we should see some insanity to the upside:s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/e/EpusYR4E.png
That gives the market enough time to coil here and be reaccumulated by the smart money, while most people want to either: buy dips, or see higher highs asap...cause they bought after the CNBC story came out (on supposedly bullish news, but, those news were not a shock, and thus, already priced in)
Nota
BTCEUR's RgMov is giving us green lights for further upside again, sentiment was abysmal at the bottom Nota
I hedged at 3655, the part of my btc not hedged by a same sized BCH position at least...waiting to cover in 15 days or if we hit support below.
Nota
Btw, look at that green arrow...bang.Nota
I covered my short in loss, it was a hedge though...looks like sideways chop for days is likely, else, vertical run up...either way, no reason to be short.
Nota
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