XBI leads SPX, NDX. Will it break down or hold the line?

Compare August 19-23 here with Aug. 22-24 on SPX and NDX (or SPY and QQQ). You can see the XBI lead at numerous turning points on the daily chart if you look back. I note yesterday's red candle not as a solid predictor of market's close today, but as a caution and a note to lean bearish.

The dashed yellow line connects closes on a line chart. If XBI closes below the solid line today, I will be looking to take a few swing positions (small capital amounts) for a lower open on Monday. Alternatively, I will wait instead of buying swing calls because buying has become extended on 30/60min charts.