XAUUSD NFP ANALYSIS 10-01-2025 #SEMS #SAGAAHELITE

🚨 XAUUSD (Spot Gold) NFP DAY 🔖 10-1-2025 🚨

Sell at: $2692-$2712-$2734-$2754
Buy at: $2640-$2625-$2600-$2580

CMP - $2679.45 (as of writing) 📈

⚠️Warning: Do not risk more than 5% of your capital. Trading in gold and other financial markets involves significant risk and may result in substantial losses.

🚨📝Data scheduled to be published at 19:00 hrs

9:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Dec) 4.0% 4.0%
19:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% 0.4%
19:00 USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 164K 227K
19:00 USD Participation Rate (Dec) 62.5%
19:00 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 135K 194K
19:00 USD U6 Unemployment Rate (Dec) 7.8%
19:00 USD Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.2% 4.2%
Gold Prices Set for Weekly Gain Amid Anticipation of US Jobs Data
Gold prices remained near a four-week high on Friday, positioning for their best weekly performance since mid-November. Investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. jobs data to assess the Federal Reserve's potential pace of interest rate cuts throughout the year.
________________________________________
Treasury Yields and Market Dynamics
Open Interest and Rising Yields
Recent shifts in open interest data on US 10-year note futures show that traders have consistently increased their bets on higher yields daily since the start of the year. This trend has driven the 10-year yield closer to 5%, reflecting a growing appetite for bearish positions in the Treasury market.
• 20-Year Yield: Surpassed 5% for the first time since 2023, driven by concerns over potential inflationary pressures and wider fiscal deficits linked to President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals.
• 30-Year Yield: Climbed to 4.96%, while the 10-year yield rose to nearly 4.73%, approaching its highest levels since November 2023.
These moves are consistent with trends observed in both the UK and emerging markets, where yields have similarly surged.
________________________________________
Markets Await Crucial Employment Data Amid Recession Fears
Investors remain on edge as they await the release of key employment figures, a critical indicator that could signal the trajectory of the U.S. economy and the potential onset of a recession. The 10-year Treasury yield, a bellwether for economic sentiment, is hovering near its highest point since April, highlighting market anxiety over upcoming data.