XAUUSD** Trading for NFP(Jun)

Analysis:
Trending is bearish, but possible bounce for correction, once $1214 holds,in combination with the bad data.
for AB=CD,D tg will complete at $1215, then see a bounce to
$1233-1237, till Jul 12.

Strategy:
1) Long, if $1214 holds;
Estimated Entry:$1215-1217
Tp1:$1233
Tp2:$1237-$1241
Tp3: to be advised after BO $1241.(Back to above $1241,will possible return to bull.)

2) Sell on rally, and add to short after BO neckline.
Estimated entry1:$1233-1237
Entry2: $1217, after BO $1214
Tp1:$1189-1190
Tp2:$1148-1143
Tp3: to be advised after BO $1120

Data Analysis and Forecase:
Unemployment-rate Forecase: Negative(about 4.4%)
Data ralated:
1.Jobless claims for the first time:continue to go up since Jun 11
2.Continuing claims for unemployment benefits:continue to increase since May 21
3.Manufacturing PMI:continuing down since Jan 2017
4.Non manufacturing PMI: steady at 56-58 for 8 month,in the past 1year.
5.Service PMI: slow up since Mar.2017, but already reached it's peak on Jan.2017
6.Factory order:under 0 level,since Arp.2017
7.unemployment-rate:continuing decrease since Jan 2017,esitmated to stuck at 4.3-4.4%.

NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls) Data Forecase: Negative(about 140-160k)
1.NFP data: slow down after Jun 2016, during the last 3 month all under 200k
2.ADP(ADP employment change):slow down after reached it's peak on Jan 2017
under 158k in Jun.2017.
3.Manufacturing employment:slow up since Dec 2016 between 11-22k, but in May, dropped down to -1k,estimated data in the following month are -10 to 10k.

Average Hourly Earnings Data Forecase: Negative(about 0.2)
During the past 1year, it fluctuated between 0.1-0.4, mostly between 0.2-0.3

Trade ativo:

longed 1220.37

Comentário:

the result of data:
Unemployment-rate:4.4% same as we forecase
NFP(Non-Farm Payrolls):220k, better than we expected
Average Hourly Earnings: 0.2, same as we forecase

Comentário:

4H chart: it just hit our target entry:$1217, and still holds, so we go long for a bounce to tp1

Trade ativo:

bo 1217, closed long and will turn to short once 1214 bo

Trade ativo:

bo 1214 already, go short

Comentário:

1H chart still in bearish tone, lower tf see some bounce.

Comentário:

4H chart update: Diving to deep blue sea??

Trade fechado manualmente:

profit taken

Comentário:

1H chart update:
Shorted from 1213, if 1207 holds, will take profits and wait to short again on 1217

Comentário:

1H chart update: going to test 1214, and watch whether it will bo this level

Trade ativo:

shorted from $1223, sl:$1233

Comentário:

1H chart update: take care of short term support at 1220, broke 1218 will heading tg:$1199

Comentário:

move sl to Breakeven

Trade fechado manualmente:

hit sl and breakeven. short term will test 1225-1229

Trade ativo:

opened small short positions from 1222, with tight SL broke channel ceiling will close

Trade fechado: stop atingido