GOLD → Funadametal factors can bring the price down

14 de mai. de 2023

Gold closes this week in the red zone with -0.27%. The metal is in a retracement or technical pullback phase, the target of which could be the support of the 1981 range.

tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/hYX0Vwp5-GOLD-False-Breakdown-and-Range-Formation-for-the-New-Week/.

Since we have a strong uptrend, we prioritize the scenario to buy gold.
The price forms a sideways range of 2048 - 1981. A false break-down of the resistance sets the price down to the area of 2000, and the next target is 1981.
The moving averages are showing an active bullish trend.
Levels, increasing panic in the market: 2010, 2000: 1981. In these areas an increase in volatility and a surge in volumes is possible.



This week we are expecting rather strong news, which can ambiguously influence the price:

16.05

• Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the U.S. retail level, excluding automobiles - analysts expect the index to strengthen.
  
• Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. - Analysts expect the index to strengthen
  17.05
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of goods and services from the consumer's perspective-analysts expect the index to strengthen.
  18.05
• Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week - analysts expect the index to strengthen
  
• The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Activity Index measures the relative level of overall business conditions in Philadelphia - analysts expect the index to strengthen
  19.05
• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018-Feb. 2026) to deliver speech - analysts are beginning to refrain from their forecasts, but continue to expect a rate hike.
  
• European Central Bank President's Speech.
  

Basically, if expectations hold true, the dollar could strengthen quite a bit, meanwhile gold will show the opposite trend. It is very likely that the price could test the 1981 and even 1950 area. But! The fundamental analysis showed many times that the published data can be very different from what was expected.

Strong support: 2010, 2000, 1981.
Strong resistance: 2025, 2032, 2048.
I think the gold will continue the correction to 2000 and then to 1981 this week. But as long as the bullish trend persists, I will expect gold to continue to show a bullish direction over the medium and long term

Regards R. Linda!