XAUUSD Gold Forecast: Lower Oil Prices Add Weights on Gold

I will not dive into the details in this forecast. Our members know that we are strongly bearish on XAUUSD.

Let us just put the headlines and highlights:

The main trends do not appear /disappear in one night. Gold prices must make firm daily closings above 1265 $ to talk about a trend reversal.

There is nothing to support Gold prices fundamentally… “YET”… You can read our latest analysis. - see attached -

Lower oil prices are dominating the commodity markets, adding weights over safe-haven assets like gold and stock markets – we have explained the effects of falling crude prices on stock markets – Why lower oil prices put Golds prices under a bearish pressure? Because; low crude prices will impact inflation expectations

A positive momentum in Gold prices can be seen in the second quarter of the new year. The net effect of the arguments Powell raised in his recent comments implies a slower expected pace of hikes next year. Gold should shine vs. stocks, particularly if the dollar stops advancing. A declining U.S. equity market is a primary force to pressure the dollar, supporting metals.

Near term overview of the charts:

As we have mentioned in our previous harmonic overview, we were expecting XAUUSD to test 1232-1234 and reverse. XAUUSD reversed @ 1230 without testing 1234 and ended the week @ 1223.

The price is still above EMA 50 on the H4 Chart in the bullish territory.

The traders who look for a fresh safe selling opportunity need to wait for the breakout of 1217 $. The targets will be 1212 and 1207.

On the upside we have two bearish harmonic patterns which we have published before.

The breakout of 1207 $ will trigger the bearish move – the bearish flag breakout – and 1170 – 1150 region will be the target of the Gold Prices midterm.

We will send the entry notifications to our members.