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VET Can Make A Move Like XRP In 2017
Atualizado
This post is really just for fun. I'm somewhat convinced that we're seeing the floor for many promising cryptocurrencies, so I'm finally starting to post some altcoin charts again. VeChain is a controversial one, at least in terms of investor sentiment. They have an unusually large community for a project with such a relatively small market cap. This may be a result of marketing, but it is also likely due to the fact that VeChain is continuing to chug along and develop. I believe they are in an advantageous position. Now, whether or not their VET token actually deserves value...VET holders will explain why economically it would make sense for the token price to rise. VET naysayers will disregard the token's value and say that it's just a funding vehicle for the foundation and a failed marketing ploy.
Funnily enough, this polarizing sentiment is very similar to what has plagued XRP, particularly since its historic price rise in 2017. I'm comparing these two crypto-assets not just because of this similarity, but also because they have a similar token supply and business plan. Both VeChain and Ripple have focused largely on working with the established system. While Bitcoin, Nano, XMR, and other pure currency coins are great, if one is looking at the crypto space as an investment, I think hedging with projects like XRP and VET isn't a terrible idea, since I think one generally wants a company to have powerful friends in order to feel confident in its long term survivability. That's just how the world has operated up until this point.
What has caused VET's recent price surge? Well, we can see that several Chinese cryptocurrency projects rose together over the last week. Even though VET, NEO, and ONT have expanded outside of China, they are still Chinese-grown. Chinese crypto whales may be trying to attract more investors to these projects. Pumps of this magnitude across several related projects are certainly manipulated. Interestingly, U.S.-born cryptocurrencies have looked meager in comparison, though some have generally performed better than these Chinese projects (in terms of % loss since the peak). Perhaps Chinese whales are attempting to fuel a bit of a blockchain arms race. The United States has been lukewarm at best towards the space, so perhaps it's a slap in the face to U.S. - centered, anti-China, cryptocurrency investors (there are many of these people in this space, I've noticed).
Anyway, there isn't much TA can do about such a speculative chart, but I'll make an attempt here. What you may notice is that I've slashed the price targets in half, from what happened to XRP. This is because the VET horizontal support from 2018-2019 is roughly 50% lower than XRP's from 2015-2017. We also don't know if or when a move like this would occur. I think there is a possibility for it to happen sooner rather than later, based on the VET buying I've seen over the last several days. We also smashed through the 50d MA (red) and are close to breaking and holding above the 100d MA (green, around 0.0042). What I'd like to see is some consolidation and then continuation above the 100d MA, and ultimately a break above the 200d MA (light blue). You can see that even if it does break the 200d MA, VET may need to continue confirming long term horizontal support, but it would still increase the chances that it can go parabolic, a la XRP. I've set my targets in pink. Given XRP's market cap, it isn't totally far-fetched to assume that VET can eventually be worth at least half of XRP's market value. The key word here is can because there is no guarantee that this will ever happen. Here is the chart zoomed in, where you can see the moving averages and structural similarities more clearly. Note the similarity in the massive RSI breakout as well:
VET is the subject of a lot of coordinated shilling AND fudding, so it'll be really interesting to see which direction it chooses in the long term. After the dotcom bubble popped, the companies that survived weren't necessarily the ones that rose in share value during that bear market. They were the ones that, despite declining value, continued to work hard, make connections, and solve real problems. It should be noted that holding VET is not equivalent to holding a share in the company, as is the case with any crypto asset. People who bought in, expecting enormous gains right off the bat have no one to blame but themselves, and perhaps the overzealous marketing of Sunny Lu...but even then, one should be able to understand that he was funding the project through VET, not trying to please nonexistent shareholders. Anger is understandable.
Anyway, that's the overview. We'll see what happens. Obviously a sustained break below the rock solid support around $0.003 would be very bad for VET. We want to see it continuing to find demand in that area. This is not financial advice. This is even more speculative than the majority of my posts to boot. Hope you enjoyed!
Funnily enough, this polarizing sentiment is very similar to what has plagued XRP, particularly since its historic price rise in 2017. I'm comparing these two crypto-assets not just because of this similarity, but also because they have a similar token supply and business plan. Both VeChain and Ripple have focused largely on working with the established system. While Bitcoin, Nano, XMR, and other pure currency coins are great, if one is looking at the crypto space as an investment, I think hedging with projects like XRP and VET isn't a terrible idea, since I think one generally wants a company to have powerful friends in order to feel confident in its long term survivability. That's just how the world has operated up until this point.
What has caused VET's recent price surge? Well, we can see that several Chinese cryptocurrency projects rose together over the last week. Even though VET, NEO, and ONT have expanded outside of China, they are still Chinese-grown. Chinese crypto whales may be trying to attract more investors to these projects. Pumps of this magnitude across several related projects are certainly manipulated. Interestingly, U.S.-born cryptocurrencies have looked meager in comparison, though some have generally performed better than these Chinese projects (in terms of % loss since the peak). Perhaps Chinese whales are attempting to fuel a bit of a blockchain arms race. The United States has been lukewarm at best towards the space, so perhaps it's a slap in the face to U.S. - centered, anti-China, cryptocurrency investors (there are many of these people in this space, I've noticed).
Anyway, there isn't much TA can do about such a speculative chart, but I'll make an attempt here. What you may notice is that I've slashed the price targets in half, from what happened to XRP. This is because the VET horizontal support from 2018-2019 is roughly 50% lower than XRP's from 2015-2017. We also don't know if or when a move like this would occur. I think there is a possibility for it to happen sooner rather than later, based on the VET buying I've seen over the last several days. We also smashed through the 50d MA (red) and are close to breaking and holding above the 100d MA (green, around 0.0042). What I'd like to see is some consolidation and then continuation above the 100d MA, and ultimately a break above the 200d MA (light blue). You can see that even if it does break the 200d MA, VET may need to continue confirming long term horizontal support, but it would still increase the chances that it can go parabolic, a la XRP. I've set my targets in pink. Given XRP's market cap, it isn't totally far-fetched to assume that VET can eventually be worth at least half of XRP's market value. The key word here is can because there is no guarantee that this will ever happen. Here is the chart zoomed in, where you can see the moving averages and structural similarities more clearly. Note the similarity in the massive RSI breakout as well:
VET is the subject of a lot of coordinated shilling AND fudding, so it'll be really interesting to see which direction it chooses in the long term. After the dotcom bubble popped, the companies that survived weren't necessarily the ones that rose in share value during that bear market. They were the ones that, despite declining value, continued to work hard, make connections, and solve real problems. It should be noted that holding VET is not equivalent to holding a share in the company, as is the case with any crypto asset. People who bought in, expecting enormous gains right off the bat have no one to blame but themselves, and perhaps the overzealous marketing of Sunny Lu...but even then, one should be able to understand that he was funding the project through VET, not trying to please nonexistent shareholders. Anger is understandable.
Anyway, that's the overview. We'll see what happens. Obviously a sustained break below the rock solid support around $0.003 would be very bad for VET. We want to see it continuing to find demand in that area. This is not financial advice. This is even more speculative than the majority of my posts to boot. Hope you enjoyed!
Nota
VET has now broken above and held the 100d MA. The next resistance isn't until the 200d MA at $0.0055. What's interesting is that the RSI is high, but the Ultimate Oscillator (red) is low. This may indicate that there's fuel left in the tank for another large move to the upside soon. Not shown here, but we are also now supported by the 9W MA for the first time since March. Nota
Getting close to the 200d MA now. I'd like it for it to at least test it as resistance. Then from there, perhaps we can refuel for a break above it. It can also obviously blast straight through it, but something like this would be more "reasonable" Nota
So VET has successfully tested and breached the 200d MA. Buyers should be careful now because we could have a substantial pullback before potentially getting to higher levels. We may even need to dip briefly below the 100d MA again, which is way down near $0.0041. XRP made a similar initial impulse above the 200d MA in 2017 as well. This is exactly what I was looking for. Nota
It should also be noted that VET is now also above the 50W Moving Average. This shouldn't be ignored. It will need to consolidate and at least hold above it to remain bullish and break out of the range to target the 3 cents area. This would be a massive move. Nota
Weekly indicators are also trying to break out. I expect some sort of retrace soon, but instead of testing the 100d MA (all the way back near $0.004), we could also just test the 50W MA, around $0.00521.Nota
Still consolidating around the 200d MA, which is fairly bullish. We also closed the weekly above the 50w MA. I still think we could see a bit of a cool off for VET, but things are looking good, as long as the 50 and 100 day Moving Averages are held as support as they continue to curve up. A golden cross would also be a very good sign. Nota
Looking at the VET/BTC chart, you can see we've reached a major resistance level. I expect at least some profit taking here. The Ultimate Oscillator hasn't quite topped out yet, but other indicators are fairly overheated. Sell volume is still low-ish compared with buy volume, but I think buyers should at least be careful here. Nota
On the weekly, we are now finding resistance at the 50 MA. I think a longer correction is possible here. But VET keeps on avoiding a correction for now. Even if it's going to continue way up towards 3 cents, I think it needs to reset for a bit. Otherwise this won't look healthy. Nota
The USD chart looks way stronger, which leads me to believe that Bitcoin could be gearing up for a bit of a pump. On the weekly, VET/USD is well above the 50MA now and already testing the beginning of the resistance/consolidation zone from June! Hardly any other cryptocurrencies have done this. Nota
Starting to finally see some profit taking from VET. A lot depends on Bitcoin at this time. I think it's possible we see a bigger retrace for VET soon, for at least some consolidation. We'll see.Nota
Well, despite sellers stepping in a bit today, we haven’t gotten a significant retrace yet. Hard to say what will happen, but supports and resistances are outlined pretty well in previous updates on this analysis.Nota
Since BTC has tanked, VET has ventured into the deeper version of this correction and now finding support at the 50d MA. This is actually more bullish than if it had dropped straight to the 100d MA. This means that the bullish cross could be valid. We have to wait to see if we can continue to bounce and hold here. Nota
So VET has bounced hard from the 50d MA. Here's an update: 
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