Crude Oil Forecast Update: Deal or No Deal ?

7 de dez. de 2018

Despite the statements of oil ministers who pointed out the weakness of the possibility of a supply cut agreement, in the last meeting held today, an agreement reached 1.2 M B/Day above the market's expectations.

Details:

An agreement was reached at the OPEC meeting. In total, 1.2 M  b / d production is reduced. 2/3 of the production limit will come from the OPEC, and 1/3 from the non-OPEC (NOPEC) countries, including Russia.

The Iranian side says they have received an exemption, while the Saudis say there is no exemption. This was a bit like the US-China meeting. Everyone is making the appropriate statement. Volatility in oil prices may be unfinished.

The markets seem to like this outcome; However, we have not yet seen the real situation in the Iran-Saudi conflict.

However, there will be no return from this decision. The market is likely to continue with positive pricing, while WTI may have formed a base at $ 50. 

Reuters reported that Iran has reached an agreement, so oil is rising. But the news has not yet passed in Bloomberg.

The weight of put options is very high in the near term options received since this morning; 55,491 put option for 7933 call option.

Technically:

In our early forecast of today, we have pointed out the critical intraday level 51.56. And targets were 52.34 and 53.13.

Price is testing the EMA 100 on the 4 H chart. 

54.60 is the most critical level. Double Bottom would be completed at the breakout and bullish move will be triggered. Our targets as we have published before are 55.20, 56.50 57.50 and 61.00.