Crude: new lows right around the corner
I'm republishing my analysis on the front month crude futures $CL1! on the FXCM WTI spot price chart so those without premium accounts can view my analysis with intra-day moves. I've also updated the analysis since, crude fell through the 50 level.
One is hard pressed to find a macro bull case for crude. Supply is poised to rise, demand is looking to slow, and the dollar looks ready for another leg higher. Longer term, I still believe we'll see new lows in oil and the technicals make an easy case for a full retracement of this Spring's ascent.
Yesterday, crude collapsed through important support, which coincided with both the psychologically important, 50 level and the 61.8% fib retracement (49.84). We waited for a bounce off of 50 back up to the 50% fib retracement (52.24) that never came that has confirmed the trend downward is intact. The breakdown below 49 will usher in another leg down, targeting 46.86. This could be a rather steep descent if we see the dollar index break out above resistance at this week's high ~98.30.
I've been short, and was poised to add to that short on a move below 49.84, targeting 46.86 with a stop at 51.04. Yesterday, I added a third to my short position and will continue to target 46.86, but will watch the 47.53 level as this has historically been a resistance point.
One is hard pressed to find a macro bull case for crude. Supply is poised to rise, demand is looking to slow, and the dollar looks ready for another leg higher. Longer term, I still believe we'll see new lows in oil and the technicals make an easy case for a full retracement of this Spring's ascent.
Yesterday, crude collapsed through important support, which coincided with both the psychologically important, 50 level and the 61.8% fib retracement (49.84). We waited for a bounce off of 50 back up to the 50% fib retracement (52.24) that never came that has confirmed the trend downward is intact. The breakdown below 49 will usher in another leg down, targeting 46.86. This could be a rather steep descent if we see the dollar index break out above resistance at this week's high ~98.30.
I've been short, and was poised to add to that short on a move below 49.84, targeting 46.86 with a stop at 51.04. Yesterday, I added a third to my short position and will continue to target 46.86, but will watch the 47.53 level as this has historically been a resistance point.
