Oil supercycle play, can't have EVs with cheap fuel!

2 de mar. de 2022

I think commodities are in a supercycle and it can last more than 10 years because of the inflationary period we are now living in. I think oil WILL NOT stay in these levels. $88 and $93 levels are I'm currently looking at but if those levels can't hold we could see violent moves to $40-$50 range. On a sidenote this chart is inflation adjusted oil prices so elliot waves 5th leg could be nominally at $300, $400 range while this chart prints $250. I repeat this is a ultra long term play and the other component of my thesis is governments will carbon tax the hell out of oil producers and consumers so the the cost of producing oil will go up and it will make oil (and other energy resources like LNG etc.) expensive to use. This will be put in effect because governments wants clean energy to be the cheapest energy on the market in order to make people transition to alternative and clean energy uses for combatting climate change. So if the productivity level increases in the clean energy resources aren't achieved at 2030s, they will make fossil fuels more expensive to use.