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USDMXN: Fear Indicator

Atualizado

To be a powerfull US President Donald Trump need to have full support from U.S. Congress and U.S. Senat over the full next four years.

The approval rates right now do not confirm, that Donald Trump is a "powerfull president". The numbers of visitors at the inauguration also left some doubts.

Traders need to follow the facts and not political opinions. How "powerfull" Donald Trump really is might the Mexican Peso show. USDMXN is a clear indicator about "Donald Trump" fears.

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At least there are some doubts about "reality":

Spicer accused media images of being “intentionally framed” to make the crowd at President Trump’s inauguration look smaller than it actually was (in part by arguing this was the first time ground coverings had been used on the Mall, which wasn’t true).
Spicer claimed that it would be irresponsible to cite any estimates of the crowd at Trump’s inauguration (or of Saturday’s Women’s March on Washington) because the National Park Service, as a rule, doesn’t release official estimates of crowd sizes.
Spicer then claimed that President Trump drew the “largest audience to witness an inauguration period, both in person and around the world.” He did not offer any evidence for this claim, nor did he square it with the idea that it was impossible to estimate crowd size.
Source: vox.com/2017/1/21/14347812/trump-press-briefing-sean-spicer

Nota

Watch the approval rates to Donald Trump closly in the next 3-4 days. If ever they might go down again at least all european stockmarkets will go up sharply.

If you are trader follow the facts. If you prefer to discuss your political opinion than you are going to lose your money. Listen what the markets say - and do not tell what the market what they need to do.

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Fact's & Figures: Approval Rate since 1940
Source: ft.com/content/3e843ab8-de9c-11e6-9d7c-be108f1c1dce

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01/25/2017
The Mexican Peso is going down. The VIX ---> Fear Factor follows ---> at once:
invst.ly/350rf

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01/25/2017
Gold is going down as well. I follow USDMXN, the VIX and Gold to indicate how low this upmove might go.
invst.ly/3515j

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Quote:
Mexican peso rallies as Trump unveils border security plans

Published: Jan 25, 2017 3:19 p.m. ET

The dollar weakened against the Mexican peso on Wednesday after President Donald Trump introduced his plans for tightening security along the U.S.'s southern border. The dollar USDMXN, -1.9050% fell 1.6% to 21.14 pesos, compared with 21.51 pesos late Tuesday in New York. Trump signed two executive orders pertaining to immigration: one authorizing his promised border wall and another providing more resources to immigration authorities inside the U.S. In his remarks, Trump emphasized that a strong Mexican economy is good for the U.S., and that he would maintain a productive relationship with the U.S.'s southern neighbor. Source: marketwatch.com/story/peso-rallies-as-trump-unveils-border-security-plans-2017-01-25?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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Jan 25, 2017

U.S. share indexes set record highs as Trump policies spur investors
Stock Markets24 minutes ago (Jan 25, 2017 03:54PM ET)

nvesting.com - U.S. share indexes rose to records on Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting 20,000 for the first time on Wednesday as strong earnings and President Donald Trump's pro-growth initiatives reignited a post-election rally.
Trump has made several business-friendly decisions since taking office on Friday, including signing executive orders to reduce regulatory burden on domestic manufacturers and clearing the way for the construction of two oil pipelines.
The Dow was last quoted at 20,072.13, up 0.80%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.85% to 2,299.35 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite rose 1.01% to 5,657.79.
Trump has also proposed tax cuts and higher fiscal spending working with a Republican-controlled Congress.
Source: investing.com/news/stock-market-news/u.s.-share-indexes-set-record-highs-as-trump-policies-spur-investors-455686

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Jan 25 2017:

Donald Trump really needs to be carefull about not to loose supporters in Congress or Senat.

Quote: "Republican leaders also have to explain and build support among members for a complex tax reform package, backed by Ryan, that includes an unusual proposal to encourage exports and penalize imports through the tax code. A framework for legislation could surface as early as next month.

The retreat will provide an opportunity for Trump and his staff to build a rapport with lawmakers, many of whom have had little contact with the president, a New York businessman who had no experience in government before taking office. Some lawmakers were rattled this week as the White House grappled with controversies over Trump's statements over the size of the crowd at his inauguration and his allegations of voter fraud in the election. "I hope he gets more focused on policy," Congressman Dent said. "Crowd size doesn't matter."
Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/republicans-to-map-out-strategy-for-trump's-agenda-455529

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Jan 26 2017: USDMXN now up 0,6%.

Donald Trump today is bashing Mexiko again after yesterday saying he wants to have Mexico a "strong economy".

"Todays" view of Donald Trump is another one:

Quote: "The U.S. has a 60 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of NAFTA with massive numbers...
of jobs and companies lost. If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting."
Source: The U.S. has a 60 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of NAFTA with massive numbers...
Source: twitter.com/realDonaldTrump?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Expect another statement with an other opinion from Trump in the next 48 hours.

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Jan 26 2017:
Now keep your attention to the re-tweets:

realDonaldTrump But you make your suits there...

This tweet is showing a picture:

Donald J. Trump Signature Collection, ---> MADE IN MEXICO
twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/824615820391305216

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an 24 2017 Donald Trump Approval Ratings are a Record Low

Donald Trump’s First Presidential Approval Ratings Are a Record Low

Jan 24, 2017

Days after his inauguration, President Donald Trump has set record for receiving the lowest initial job approval rating and the highest disapproval rating.

Trump is the first elected U.S. president to start out with a job approval rating below 50% in the history of Gallup surveys, which date back to Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1953. Just 45% of respondents said they approve of the job Trump is doing, while 45% disapprove, according to a Gallup poll. By comparison, former President Barack Obama began his term with a 68% approval rating, according to Gallup polling. George W. Bush began with a 57% approval rating. Former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan had 51% approval ratings at the start of their terms, but they had much lower disapproval ratings—just 6% and 13%, respectively. Source: fortune.com/2017/01/24/donald-trump-approval-ratings/

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Jan 26 2017

Mexican President cancel meeting with Donald Trump.
USDMXN is up 1,5%

Expect Donald Trumps approval rates to go down further.
Expect also Donald Trump to fire Steve Bannon in the comming days or weeks and to set a more moderate tone.

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investing.com/news/politics-news/trump:-mexico-should-cancel-meeting-if-they-won't-pay-for-wall-455881

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Jan 26 2017

TRUMP: "Mexican President and I agreed to cancel meeting."

USDMXN falling at once.

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Todays "action": Stockmarkets following USMXN

Forex - Mexican peso hits day’s lows after Trump tweets
Forex1 hour ago (Jan 26, 2017 09:35AM ET)

Investing.com - The Mexican peso fell to the day’s lows on Thursday after President Donald Trump threatened on Twitter to cancel talks with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto if Mexico is unwilling to pay for a U.S.-Mexican border wall.
Peña Nieto is scheduled to meet with Trump next Tuesday to discuss the terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement and immigration.

USD/MXN rose 0.58% to 21.19, pulling back from three-week lows of 20.86.

“The U.S. has a 60 billion dollar trade deficit with Mexico. It has been a one-sided deal from the beginning of NAFTA with massive numbers of jobs and companies lost,” Trump tweeted. “If Mexico is unwilling to pay for the badly needed wall, then it would be better to cancel the upcoming meeting.”
The tweets came after Trump on Wednesday signed two executive orders, one authorizing the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border and the other to significantly boost the U.S. Border Patrol. Hours later, Peña Nieto said he "regrets and rejects" Trump's orders because "Mexico does not believe in walls." He also reiterated that Mexico will not pay for any wall and pledged to protect Mexicans in the US. The peso hit a record low against the dollar earlier this year and is still down around 2.5% against the dollar for 2017.
Source: investing.com/news/forex-news/forex---mexican-peso-hits-day’s-lows-after-trump-tweets-455886

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Jan 26 2017: Trump Approval Rate 36%.

Richard Nixons (last day in office) approval ratewas 24%.

Quote: Poll shows Trump with 36 percent job approval for first five days

By Steven Shepard 01/26/17 01:33 PM EST

Thirty-six percent of voters approve of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job in his first week, according to a new poll that reflects a sharp divide along partisan lines. The Quinnipiac University poll, conducted over the first five nights of Trump’s presidency — last Friday through Wednesday — shows that a larger percentage, 44 percent, disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Nineteen percent are undecided in the poll, which was released Thursday.
Source: politico.com/blogs/donald-trump-administration/2017/01/job-approval-rating-quinnipiac-poll-234225

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Comment: Jan 27 2017

Watch todays Lindsey Grahams comment on twitter

Border security yes, tariffs no. Mexico is 3rd largest trading partner. Any tariff we can levy they can levy. Huge barrier to econ growth /1
1,092 replies 7,528 retweets 14,604 likes
Source: twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/824733324769951744

Simply put, any policy proposal which drives up costs of Corona, tequila, or margaritas is a big-time bad idea. Mucho Sad. (2)
twitter.com/LindseyGrahamSC/status/824734113412345856

Now check how many Senators Donald Trump can affort to loose more:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2016

Lindsey Graham made the point: Not Mexiko is paying "The Wall". It is the U.S. consumer. Guess how many more senators might vote with a "NO".

USDMXN follow this logic for sure. The peso today again strengthen against the US Dollar - no matter what Donald Trump is telling or "repeating".

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Jan 27 2017
Quote:
LIMA (Reuters) - Peru and Colombia vowed to stand with Mexico as the country faces an uncertain economic future and grapples with a crisis with the United States just days into U.S. President Donald Trump's administration.

Peruvian President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski said members of the Latin American trade bloc the Pacific Alliance must double down on efforts to open markets and strengthen ties as they navigate the "turbulent waters" of protectionist rhetoric.

Peru, Colombia, Chile and Mexico formed the Pacific Alliance in 2011 to remove obstacles to trade and orient their markets to the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region. "Right now one of us is facing serious difficulties that are not of its own making," Kuczynski said in reference to Mexico as he sat beside his Colombian counterpart on an official visit. "We have to stand together on our ideals, on global trade which has done us so much good." Though Kuczynski did not mention Trump by name, his comments were some of the first rumblings of displeasure with the Trump administration from traditional U.S. allies in Latin America.

Trump has insisted he will force Mexico to pay for a wall between the two countries to curb illegal immigration and drug trafficking. He has also threatened to slap taxes on Mexican imports and tear up the regional trade deal NAFTA if he cannot renegotiate it to ensure more benefits for the United States. The Mexican peso has been rocked by tensions between the two countries, firming on Friday after Trump said he had a friendly phone call with Mexican President Pena Nieto. "There are clouds of uncertainty around the world," Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos said. "We want to join the call of countries that adhere to the principles that have been so good for the world: free trade, respect for treaties... multilateral solutions." Santos said he spoke with Pena Nieto by phone on Thursday, when the Mexican leader announced he canceled a meeting with Trump as a diplomatic crisis over the proposed wall deepened.

Kuczynski, a former investment banker who spent years living in the United States, said the four countries in the Pacific Alliance represent a market of some 200 million people and that each has emerged from economic crisis in the past by opening markets to global trade. "Of course there are costs to global trade, of course there are job losses, but it's also clear that the benefits are bigger," Kuczynski said.
Source: tradingview.com / yahoo.com/news/peru-colombia-vow-stand-mexico-row-trump-003505306.html?ref=gs
(Reporting by Mitra Taj and Marco Aquino; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

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Gallup: Trump Net Approval Rating Drops 8 Points In First Week In Office

President Donald Trump’s net approval rating dropped by eight points in his first week in the Oval Office, according to daily polls tracked by Gallup.

On Sunday Jan. 22, two days after being sworn in, 45 percent of respondents said they disapproved of Trump’s job performance and 45 percent approved. By Friday Jan. 27, the percentage who disapproved rose to 50 and percentage who approved dipped to 42. Trump has had a busy but rocky first week in office, signing off a series of executive orders laying out major policy changes like a temporary ban on refugees and on citizens from seven majority-Muslim nations. He had a friendly meeting with British Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday, but raised tensions with Mexican president Enrique Peña-Nieto over his insistence that Mexico will pay for a southern border wall that the country does not want. Other national surveys show similarly low approval ratings for the President. Forty-four percent of respondents to a Quinnipiac survey released Thursday said they disapproved of his handling of the presidency thus far, while only 36 percent approved. Source: talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/gallup-trump-approval-rating-falls-week-one

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Jan 30 2017 Trump is going to loose the Senat

Quote:
McCain, Graham lead in GOP criticism of Trump ban ...

Republican Sens. John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina broke the GOP silence on Capitol Hill on Sunday to issue a scathing condemnation of President Donald Trump's ban on travel to the United States from seven Muslim-majority countries. ....
... t was the strongest criticism Trump has faced yet from the right, as congressional leaders largely deflect questions about the ban and aides say Trump is doing exactly what he pledged he'd do on the campaign trail. ...
.... That could change this week when lawmakers return to Washington and the Senate considers several of Trump's Cabinet nominees' confirmation ...

....On Capitol Hill, many GOP offices were non-responsive in the 24 hours after the executive order was signed, though more are now making statements.
The reason, according to GOP sources in both chambers, was two-fold: They were left out of the loop by the White House before the travel ban was announced, and they see political risk coming from both directions.
"Support it and get hit, oppose it and get hit," one GOP source said. "There will be time for discussion about this. Right now we'll let the administration take the lead." ...
Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/01/29/politics/trump-travel-ban-congress-reaction/index.html

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an 30 2017:

The New York Post
New life for Mike Pence’s tweet calling Muslim ban ‘offensive and unconstitutional’

Published: Jan 29, 2017 7:06 p.m. ET

An old assertion of Vice President Mike Pence’s raised eyebrows over the weekend as it emerged from the annals of Twitter — and stood as a direct contradiction to President Donald Trump’s new executive order banning immigration from Muslim-majority countries.
“Calls to ban Muslims from entering the U.S. are offensive and unconstitutional,” then-governor Pence tweeted at 7:30 a.m. on Dec. 8, 2015.
twitter.com/GovPenceIN/status/674249808610066433?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

Source: marketwatch.com/story/new-life-for-mike-pences-tweet-calling-muslim-ban-offensive-and-unconstitutional-2017-01-29?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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Do not be scared about Donald Trump. Just laugh!

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Feb 01 2017

If ever there might be any "border tax" Republican lawmakers need to agree to higher prices payed by U.S. consumers. They won´t do this.

Quote:
With a crippling border tax looming, retailers head to Washington
Krystina Gustafson | @KrystinaGustafs
1 Hour Ago

A Republican proposal that would tax retailers on goods they import and sell in the U.S. still has more questions than answers. But that hasn't stopped industry leaders and trade groups from increasing the pressure they're putting on Washington, D.C., as they fight against a policy critics say could put some of these companies out of business. A "large number of CEOs" have been to D.C. in recent months, to share their concerns about a so-called border adjustment tax, David French, senior vice president for government relations at the National Retail Federation, told CNBC.
When factoring in visits from CFOs, those numbers are "easily" in the double digits, French said. Separately, the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) on Wednesday formally launched a national campaign to fight the border tax, called Americans for Affordable Products. A vice president for that trade group recently told Jefferies that participants across the industry have reached out about the issue, "including retailers who typically do not engage in public policy issues," Jefferies analyst Randal Konik said.

RILA's members include major retailers like Target, Home Depot, J.C. Penney, Wal-Mart and Nike. Of those retailers, only Target and Home Depot responded to CNBC's request for comment. A Home Depot spokesman said the company is "still studying the possible scenarios and impacts." A Target spokeswoman echoed that statement, saying the retailer is "closely monitoring the ongoing discussions on tax reform and the impact of the House's proposed border adjustability tax on our guests." The spokeswoman confirmed to CNBC that Target CEO Brian Cornell was one of the industry executives who went to Washington to speak out about the tax, as was first reported by Politico.
"We can confirm that [CEO Brian Cornell] traveled to D.C. to participate in conversations with lawmakers but we are not going to get into specifics of those conversations," Target spokeswoman Dustee Tucker Jenkins said. However, a source close to the matter told CNBC that Target's message is centered on the impact a border tax would have on its shoppers, who would end up paying more for the company's products. The retailer is also emphasizing the fact that 99 percent of its workforce is based in the U.S., and that a border tax would slow its plans to open small, urban stores that would employ more Americans.

"In the last decade, no issue has galvanized the industry more than this one," Brian Dodge, senior executive vice president of public affairs at RILA, told CNBC.

Details regarding a potential border tax are largely a question mark, though a 20 percent adjustment has been most frequently discussed. The White House has floated the idea of using an import tax as a way to pay for the wall President Donald Trump wants built between the U.S. and Mexico. Yet while some argue that such a tax would increase the value of the dollar, and therefore lower the cost of imports, analysts maintain that most apparel and footwear brands would be forced to raise prices for consumers. "Any border tax will of course lead to higher prices for the consumer. That's just the reality that we'll have to face if it comes to that," Coach CEO Victor Luis told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Tuesday.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/01/31/with-a-crippling-border-tax-looming-retailers-head-to-washington.html

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Feb 01.2017

Trump´s Harley-Davidson visit canceled

If ever Trump would had showed up there on thrusday international customers would had canceled theire orders - this might be the truth behind all. This example reminds to Barack Obama when he had low approval rates as well. Dem. Lawmaker didn´t want him to show up in theire election circels in this periode.

Quote:

Trump trip canceled; Harley-Davidson wasn't comfortable with likely protests, per source

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump will not head to Milwaukee for a previously scheduled visit of a Harley-Davidson factory after the company decided it wasn't comfortable hosting him amid planned protests, an administration official said Tuesday.
Trump had been scheduled to tour the factory Thursday where he also planned to sign executive orders related to American manufacturing. The visit had not been publicly announced, but White House staffers were already on the ground in Milwaukee setting up for Trump's planned visit to the factory on Thursday. White House spokeswoman Stephanie Grisham confirmed Trump is not expected to go to Milwaukee on Thursday. Harley-Davidson issued a statement Tuesday night saying they "don't have, nor did we have, a scheduled visit from the President this week at any of our facilities." Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/donald-trump-milwaukee-harley-davidson/

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Februar 02 2017: U.S. Retailers starts to fight back.

Quote:

Stop the Border Adjustment Tax
Don´t make hard working families pay more on essantiel products

Tell Congress No To The Border Adjustment Tax
Make your voice heard on how this misguided proposal will impact you, your family, and jobs in your local community.

Take Action

Quote: keepamericaaffordable.com/default.aspx

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Feb 02 2017: Mexicans not afraid of Trump´s border tax

In avocado country, Mexicans not afraid of Trump tariff threats
Economy37 minutes ago (Feb 02, 2017 02:30PM ET)

By Adriana Barrera

URUAPAN, Mexico (Reuters) - Avocado farmers in the rolling hillsides of Mexico's Michoacan state are not worried for now by U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to tear up a trade deal which could make the favorite snack of Super Bowl viewers more expensive.
Americans will chomp through huge amounts of avocados mashed into guacamole during the Super Bowl on Sunday, and 80 percent of those fruits will come from Mexico’s ever-larger expanse of orchards, thanks to a free market created by the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994.
It is peak season for guacamole, a word that means avocado sauce in Mexico's native Nahuatl language. Some 100,000 tonnes of the green fruit, or 12 percent of annual U.S. demand, will be consumed on Sunday and in the days before and after the New England Patriots game against the Atlanta Falcons, exporters say.
With such market dominance and demand, growers like Adrian Iturbide doubt Trump's eagerness to impose duties on Mexican goods will dent exports. They feel they have little to fear from proposals by the Republican such as a 20 percent blanket tariff on U.S. imports from Mexico, that would affect sales of "green gold" to the northern neighbor.

Quote: investing.com/news/economy-news/in-avocado-country,-mexicans-not-afraid-of-trump-tariff-threats-457561

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Jan 03 2017 Trump makes Mexican peso great again

Quote: Trump makes Mexican peso great again; investors see more gains ahead
Forex3 hours ago (Feb 03, 2017 04:28PM ET)

By Dion Rabouin

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Mexico’s peso has improbably been the world’s top-performing currency since Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration, and an increasing number of emerging market fund managers said it could rebound further from its nosedive following the U.S. election. Even before its inauguration comeback, a number of emerging market fund managers were betting that the peso had seen its worst days and was poised to outperform in 2017 along with other Mexican assets.
"We've gone from an outright short late last year to an overweight position relative to the index, just because there’s a lot of bad news priced in," said Jim Barrineau, Schroders' head of emerging markets debt and portfolio manager for its multi-sector bond fund. "The real exchange rate is very, very cheap relative to history, and at this point, the bond yields are competitive with the higher yielding countries in EM." The peso was up 8 percent since Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20 despite his proposal last week of a 20 percent border tax on Mexican imports and the collapse of a scheduled face-to-face meeting with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto. The peso also made a technical breakout Friday, rallying through a resistance point at the 20.56 level, around where it closed on Thursday. That level marks a 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of its sell-off since the Nov. 8 election.
"Perceiving the 20 percent import tax comment as a starting point for negotiations, the market took some solace because it could have been much higher, say 30 percent or 35 percent," said Gordian Kemen, global head of emerging market fixed income strategy for Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
The peso has continued its tear even as Trump has reiterated concerns about the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying on Thursday he would like to speed up talks to either renegotiate or replace the deal. Kemen said investors were relieved Trump did not move to unilaterally withdraw from NAFTA or rule out talks entirely.

PRICED IN

And though investors have in the past wagered at their peril that Trump's often extreme rhetoric would not be matched by his real-world actions, many are betting that the current price of Mexico's peso already reflects the worst of any potential U.S. action against the country. Deutsche Bank asset managers said earlier this week they believed the peso had hit a near-term bottom. Similarly, Michael Gomez, PIMCO's head of emerging markets portfolio management, said that while he expects the background to remain noisy, "Mexican assets and the peso specifically already incorporate much of the expected downside risk." UBS strategists recently said in a research note that even the border tax had been 70 percent priced into the peso's value. Source: investing.com/news/forex-news/trump-makes-mexican-peso-great-again

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Feb 08 2017 What ever happens in the White House or the Oval Office. Only Minuts or Hours later you can read anything in the news. This never happened before. Here is the reason why:

Quote: The Fix
The leaks coming out of the Trump White House cast the president as a clueless child

All White Houses leak. Sometimes the leaks are big, sometimes small. But there are always people willing to talk to reporters about the “real” story or about why the chief executive made a mistake in regard to some decision he made.

That said, I've never seen so much leaking so quickly — and with such disdain for the president — as I have in the first six days of Donald Trump's presidency.

Two recent examples:

1. This from the New York Times today on Trump's impulsiveness:

Mr. Trump’s advisers say that his frenzied if admittedly impulsive approach appeals to voters because it shows that he is a man of action. Those complaining about his fixation with fictional voter fraud or crowd counts at his inauguration, in their view, are simply seeking ways to undercut his legitimacy.

Yet some of his own advisers also privately worry about his penchant for picking unnecessary fights and drifting off message. They talk about taking away his telephone or canceling his Twitter account, only to be dismissed by a president intent on keeping his own outlets to the world.

2. This from WaPo on Trump's inauguration crowd estimates:

Trump’s advisers suggested that he could push back in a simple tweet. Thomas J. Barrack Jr., a Trump confidant and the chairman of the Presidential Inaugural Committee, offered to deliver a statement addressing the crowd size.

But Trump was adamant, aides said. Over the objections of his aides and advisers — who urged him to focus on policy and the broader goals of his presidency — the new president issued a decree: He wanted a fiery public response, and he wanted it to come from his press secretary.

Time and again, the image of Trump pushed by his “aides” is one of a clueless child — someone who acts on impulse, disregarding the better advice of people who know better. We know he needs to be managed or else he will say and do stupid things, the message seems to be. We're working on it. And what we know about Trump from his presidential campaign is that some of his top staffers — most notably Kellyanne Conway — often communicated to the boss via the media. What that strategy suggests is that Trump is influenced at least as much — and, in truth, likely more — by reading the sniping of his aides on background (meaning without their names attached) in the news than he is by private conversations. That the best way to reach him, change his mind or otherwise bend his ear is through a public airing of grievances. Trump has shown that his tendency to obsessively consume media — especially cable television — is unchanged in the six days since he has become president. He appears to be making policy decisions via things he watches or reads. (Remember Trump's famous/infamous statement that he got his military information and advice “mostly from the shows.”) At odds with all of this, however, is the fact that Trump is both deeply proud and hugely image-conscious. Having to read and watch allegedly loyal “aides” casting him as a sort of feckless child constantly in need of guidance wouldn't seem to be the sort of thing that would sit well with him.

Read more: washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/01/26/the-leaks-coming-out-the-trump-white-house-cast-the-boss-as-a-clueless-child/?utm_term=.8c00331214f9

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Feb 08 2017 If you want to learn, how "alternative facts" might end watch this video if you open this link. Kellyanne Conway is debunking there own "alternative facts".

edition.cnn.com/2017/02/07/politics/kellyanne-conway-jake-tapper-interview-cnntv/

Jake Tapper spars with Kellyanne Conway over WH falsehoods

Washington (CNN)Top White House adviser Kellyanne Conway has apologized for citing a fake "massacre" in support of Donald Trump's travel ban, in an interview on CNN in which she acknowledged that not all of the mainstream media can fairly be characterized as "fake news".
Conway said "regretted tremendously" shaming the press for not covering the "Bowling Green massacre", an event that did not happen, when she was defending Trump's immigration crackdown.

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FEB 09 2017: Mexican CB, unexpectedly rate hike

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FEB 13 2017: Follow closely todays Trump meeting with Canadas Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
edition.cnn.com/2017/02/12/opinions/justin-trudeau-meets-donald-trump-cohen/

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FEB 13 2017 Trump discovers the limits of his power
edition.cnn.com/2017/02/11/opinions/trump-white-house-power-limits-zelizer-opinion/index.html?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

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Comment: FEB 13 2017 Wall St. set to extend record run as 'Trump trade' rekindles
Stock Markets38 minutes ago (Feb 13, 2017 08:44AM ET)
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-st.-set-to-extend-record-run-as-'trump-trade'-rekindles-459544

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Comment: Comment: FEB 15 2017: Record winning streak not seen in a quarter century.
marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-on-brink-of-best-win-streak-in-a-quarter-century-2017-02-15?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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FEB 15 2016 U.S. secretaries Tillerson, Kelly to visit Mexico next week

Politics47 minutes ago (Feb 15, 2017 02:00PM ET)

Quote: MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security head John Kelly will visit Mexico next Thursday, Mexico's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. The officials will meet with various members of the Mexican government to continue the dialogue agreed upon when U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto spoke by phone in January, the ministry said in a statement. Source: MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security head John Kelly will visit Mexico next Thursday, Mexico's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. The officials will meet with various members of the Mexican government to continue the dialogue agreed upon when U.S. President Donald Trump and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto spoke by phone in January, the ministry said in a statement. Source: investing.com/news/politics-news/u.s.-secretaries-tillerson,-kelly-to-visit-mexico-next-week-460176

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FEB 17 2017: Border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.

Quote: Border adjustment tax is on 'life support,' and tax reform may come later ... and with less punch
The tax plan that promises the biggest cuts in corporate taxes without straining the federal budget looks increasingly unlikely to become law.
"I wouldn't call it dead, but I would say it's on life support," said Greg Valliere, chief global strategist with Horizon Investment. Valliere said the chances for the so-called border adjustment tax seemed to wane after President Donald Trump this week met with retailers who oppose the plan.
Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/17/border-adjustment-tax-is-on-life-support-snagging-tax-reform.html

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Trump approval rating sets a new low at 38^% (Gallup)

Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Source: gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

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FEB 18 2017: Trumps approval rates on record lows. What does this means (historically)?

Read more:
Quote: Disapproval
Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Down. How Much Does It Mean?
Source: nytimes.com/2017/02/17/upshot/trump-is-down-to-38-approval-how-much-does-it-mean.html?_r=0

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FEB 20 2017 Expect another Trump U-Turn by his team in Mexico later this week.

Quote:
Published On: Sat, Feb 18th, 2017
Headlines / International / National / News | By Yucatan Times
What to expect from US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security chief John Kelly visit to Mexico on Feb. 23?
Mexico City (AFP) – US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Homeland Security chief John Kelly will visit Mexico this coming Thursday February 23, to reestablish “constructive” ties after a diplomatic crisis, Mexico’s government said Wednesday. Source: theyucatantimes.com/2017/02/what-to-expect-from-us-secretary-of-state-rex-tillerson-and-homeland-security-chief-john-kelly-visit-to-mexico-on-feb-23/

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FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it

John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source: cnbc.com/2017/02/21/border-tax-hits-political-reality-and-only-trump-can-save-it.html

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FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today.

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MAR 1 2017: Peso gains more than 1,4% after Trumps speech.

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MAR 02 2017: "Bad Cop- good Cop" - Wilbur Ross talks the Peso higher. The Peso gains 2,3% today.

A better US-Mexico trade deal would save the battered peso: Commerce Secretary Ross
cnbc.com/2017/03/03/wilbur-ross-peso-down-but-us-mexico-trade-deal-would-help.html

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MAR 03 2017: Thanks, Donald! Nice unmoved for the peso.

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Comment: ... nice upmove ...
The Peso gained on Friday 2,47% in one day only.

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MAR 6 2017: Expect more gains for the Peso. After weekends Twitter desaster Trump needs to change a lot.

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MAR 6 2017: And he did: Trump changed a lot: New Travel Ban

- no tweets
- no press
- Rex Tillerson adressed the press

President Trump privately signs new travel ban targeting those seeking new visas
chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-travel-ban-new-order-20170305-story.html

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MAR 08 2017: Trump´s next u-turn
U.S. Commerce chief sees no major NAFTA talks until later this year
investing.com/news/forex-news/u.s.-commerce-chief-sees-no-major-nafta-talks-until-later-this-year-464746

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MAR 15 2017: Trump travel ban: revised order blocked nationwide by Hawaii federal judge – live
theguardian.com/us-news/live/2017/mar/16/trump-travel-ban-blocked-nationwide-hawaii-court-live

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MAR 18 2017: Treasury's Mnuchin says Trump does not want trade wars
PoliticsMar 16, 2017 06:03PM ET
investing.com/news/politics-news/treasury's-mnuchin-says-trump-doesn't-want-trade-wars-466774

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MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source: uk.businessinsider.com/trumps-approval-rating-craters-in-poll-and-his-base-is-the-culprit-2017-3%3Fr%3DUS%26IR%3DT

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APR 02 2017 An influential GOP senator throws cold water on the polarizing House border tax provision
cnbc.com/2017/03/29/gop-sen-portman-we-can-cut-corporate-taxes-without-border-adjustment.html

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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source: edition.cnn.com/2017/04/05/politics/steve-bannon-white-house-national-security-council/index.html

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Comment: APR 08 2017 - USDMXN is ready for a new drop back to pre election levels. The Trump Team could be expect to set a more moderate tone until the end of Trumps first 100 days in office.
Trump Fires Warning Shot in Battle Between Bannon and Kushner
nytimes.com/2017/04/07/us/white-house-kushner-bannon-military-strike.html?_r=0

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APR 12 2017- Fitch changes its mind: Trump isn't a threat to the world economy after all
Quote:

- In February, Fitch warned that Trump posed a danger to global economic stability.

- In April, the ratings agency says the president's pro-growth agenda would push GDP more than expected.

Concerns linger over protectionism and debt, but the report was a major change from the previous warnings.
cnbc.com/2017/04/11/fitch-flips-trump-isnt-a-threat-to-the-world-economy-after-all.html

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APR 17 2017 - Wall Street banker Cohn moving Trump toward moderate policies
WASHINGTON/BOSTON (Reuters) - In a White House marked by infighting, top economic aide Gary Cohn, a Democrat and former Goldman Sachs banker, is muscling aside some of President Donald Trump's hard-right advisers to push more moderate, business-friendly economic policies. Source: reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-missile-idUSKBN17H0NL

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APR 17 2017 - Border Adjustment TAX maybe never to come:
Quote: Supporters of the border-adjustment provision point out that it would raise $1 trillion in revenue that could be used to help pay for lowering tax rates. Mnuchin told the Financial Times that there are other ways that the White House could raise $1 trillion but that the border-adjustment proposal is not "off the table." Source: thehill.com/policy/finance/329159-mnuchin-tax-reform-before-august-highly-aggressive-to-not-realistic

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APR 20 2017: Sold 1/8 for profit taking. Net gain 3.500 pips. (3,5k).

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Net gain 3.000 pips (3k), not 3.5k.

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APR 23 2017: For German Readers (english as soon as available)
Angela Merkel musste Trump Berichten zufolge 11-mal die Prinzipien der EU erklären
businessinsider.de/angela-merkel-musste-trump-berichten-zufolge-11-mal-die-prinzipien-der-eu-erklaeren-2017-4

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APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times
businessinsider.de/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4?r=US&IR=T

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Trump agrees 'not to terminate NAFTA at this time'
edition.cnn.com/2017/04/26/politics/trump-nafta/index.html

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Top Mexican trade official to hold sugar talks next week in U.S.
investing.com/news/economy-news/top-mexican-trade-official-to-hold-sugar-talks-next-week-in-u.s.-481239

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Even missing to update this issue: The trend is still valid. USDMXN now below the pre U.S. Presidential election.

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G20 Meeting in Hamburg, Germany:

No tradewar USA-China for the meantime

Trump keeps it friendly with Xi at G-20 on North Korea threat
cnbc.com/2017/07/09/trump-keeps-it-friendly-with-xi-at-g-20-on-north-korea-threat.html

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President Trump's six-month approval rating is lowest ever recorded — but he says it's 'not bad'
nydailynews.com/news/politics/president-trump-six-month-approval-rating-lowest-record-article-1.3330385

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Donald Trumps approval rates on new record lows:
washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2017/07/16/National-Politics/Polling/question_18935.xml?uuid=QLWiFmnbEeeUq1sfD_RZ3w

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Remark: The last issue likely to keep Trump in Office is economics. U.S. voters link this to Trump. Facts are: Global strong economic fundamentals keep the U.S. economy growing. Trump advisers likely understand that any slowdown in local economics could end Trumps Presidentcy quickly on Russia probes.

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USDMXN: All short trades finally closed on profit taking.

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USDMXN short closed

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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: "TRADE WAR"

NAFTA talks focus on procurement amid doubts over deal chances
investing.com/news/economy-news/nafta-talks-focus-on-procurement-amid-doubts-over-deal-chances-540658

USDMXN is a perfect indicator to discuss Trumps "tradewar". Right now it might be a good idea to keep an eye on USDMXN to predict possible impact to US Stockmarkets - even positive or negative.

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