one more spike to fib level? eurusd broke channel today, move to parity likely now.
if eurusd down -> usdcny up -> chinese sell treasuries to defend fx rate -> US yields up -> usdjpy up in lockstep since 10y japanese bonds pegged. euro parity could send US 10y yields to around 3%.
dollar strength will potentially cause china/ EM crisis early next year. this will reverse US yields/USDJPY lower again.
if eurusd down -> usdcny up -> chinese sell treasuries to defend fx rate -> US yields up -> usdjpy up in lockstep since 10y japanese bonds pegged. euro parity could send US 10y yields to around 3%.
dollar strength will potentially cause china/ EM crisis early next year. this will reverse US yields/USDJPY lower again.