USDJPY, B. Japan and FOMC Speculation Week of September 19, 2016
Ok, so I've been long the dollar for a while and it has been paying off well. I want to post economic-fundamental trades because it is an intelligent way to trade, albeit slow and steady.
Here is what I want to see going into the Japanese monetary policy statement on September 20th. I am taking the Bank of Japan's approach and getting inside their head. I want to hear "negative interest rates as a primary tool," whether it will be implemented NOW or LATER. I don't care. As long as they say it, I am happy. You may hear on Bloomberg the term N.I.R.P (Negative Interest Rate Policy for short). They don't need to implement more Q.E., that would further destroy them; however, they bank of Japan mentioned that had global factors been in their control it would have worked; but global factors are beyond their control.
Japanese Negative Interest Rates:
Again, I am pounding the table: Watch for the Bank of Japan to become more focused on a NIRP (forget Q.E.).
Japanese Inflation:
I want Japanese inflation. They have none. So far, Abe has maintain the 2% level as a target level in a 2 year horizon for inflation. Now, if Abe is not so smart, then he would say, "Ok, I change m mind, we are lowering our inflation target below 2%." All hell would break loose on the USDJPY pair and it will fall like a rock. NO! It will fall like a meteorite.
I want them to tell us that they will maintain that 2% inflation target in general.
that's about it for Japan.
For the USA:
I don't care if Yellen raising rates in September, as long as she stays hawkish for December and let's us know that a hike is due this year. Then, I will be happy.
Alright, it is late. I am not going to be day trading this week, but just watching for those two central banks and rumors that may leak out. Good night New York! Good night World!
Here is what I want to see going into the Japanese monetary policy statement on September 20th. I am taking the Bank of Japan's approach and getting inside their head. I want to hear "negative interest rates as a primary tool," whether it will be implemented NOW or LATER. I don't care. As long as they say it, I am happy. You may hear on Bloomberg the term N.I.R.P (Negative Interest Rate Policy for short). They don't need to implement more Q.E., that would further destroy them; however, they bank of Japan mentioned that had global factors been in their control it would have worked; but global factors are beyond their control.
Japanese Negative Interest Rates:
Again, I am pounding the table: Watch for the Bank of Japan to become more focused on a NIRP (forget Q.E.).
Japanese Inflation:
I want Japanese inflation. They have none. So far, Abe has maintain the 2% level as a target level in a 2 year horizon for inflation. Now, if Abe is not so smart, then he would say, "Ok, I change m mind, we are lowering our inflation target below 2%." All hell would break loose on the USDJPY pair and it will fall like a rock. NO! It will fall like a meteorite.
I want them to tell us that they will maintain that 2% inflation target in general.
that's about it for Japan.
For the USA:
I don't care if Yellen raising rates in September, as long as she stays hawkish for December and let's us know that a hike is due this year. Then, I will be happy.
Alright, it is late. I am not going to be day trading this week, but just watching for those two central banks and rumors that may leak out. Good night New York! Good night World!
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Remember that we are fundamentally long USDJPY. My stop is around 99:
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I was searching for this chart. Wheeww... a lot of small day trade charts are cuttering my fundamental trades:
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This is the YEN CURRENCY after the monetary policy statement of the Bank of Japan. Knocked down red. Next is the FOMC: www.tradingview.com/x/Va9WvP8K/
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Capturing the swings of the stock market & currency market. It's a dirty job and equity/currency traders must do it.
