The USDCAD pair continues to trade inside a box pattern on the weekly timeframe (image 1), hovering between long-term support and resistance zones. While the US Dollar is showing mild recovery attempts, the Canadian Dollar is finding modest support from rising oil prices. Let’s break it down.
Why the US Dollar Is Struggling
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Markets now see an 87% probability of a September cut, up from 75% just a week ago. Fed’s John Williams reminded traders that “every meeting is live,” keeping uncertainty high.
Political Pressure on the Fed: Attacks on the central bank’s independence (e.g., attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook) have dampened USD sentiment.
Lower interest rate expectations + political noise = cautious Dollar.
What’s Supporting the Canadian Dollar
Oil Prices: As a major exporter, higher crude prices are giving CAD a gentle push upward.
But… GDP Risks: Canada’s upcoming Q2 GDP is expected to show a 0.6% contraction, a sharp reversal from Q1’s +2.2%. If confirmed, it could weigh heavily on CAD.
Key Events to Watch
US PCE Price Index → If softer, Fed cut bets rise → USD weakens. Stronger-than-expected → USD rebound.
Canada GDP → Weak print supports USD; stronger data helps CAD.
Trading Setup (Short-Term) ⚡
Bias: Range play inside the box.
Entry Zone: 1.3720 – 1.3745 (current mid-range support).
Target: 1.3850 (top of range).
Stop Loss: Below 1.3660.
RR: ~1:3.
Alternatively, a break above 1.3850 could signal fresh bullish continuation toward 1.4000, while a daily close below 1.3650 exposes 1.3500.
Final Summary
USDCAD is in wait-and-see mode, caught between:
A weakening USD from Fed cut bets & political tension.
A fragile CAD supported by oil but threatened by weak GDP.
Until data clears the picture, expect box-pattern trading with opportunities near support and resistance.
👉 Follow me for more 1:5 RR setups, trade breakdowns, and live market updates.
Why the US Dollar Is Struggling
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Markets now see an 87% probability of a September cut, up from 75% just a week ago. Fed’s John Williams reminded traders that “every meeting is live,” keeping uncertainty high.
Political Pressure on the Fed: Attacks on the central bank’s independence (e.g., attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook) have dampened USD sentiment.
Lower interest rate expectations + political noise = cautious Dollar.
What’s Supporting the Canadian Dollar
Oil Prices: As a major exporter, higher crude prices are giving CAD a gentle push upward.
But… GDP Risks: Canada’s upcoming Q2 GDP is expected to show a 0.6% contraction, a sharp reversal from Q1’s +2.2%. If confirmed, it could weigh heavily on CAD.
Key Events to Watch
US PCE Price Index → If softer, Fed cut bets rise → USD weakens. Stronger-than-expected → USD rebound.
Canada GDP → Weak print supports USD; stronger data helps CAD.
Trading Setup (Short-Term) ⚡
Bias: Range play inside the box.
Entry Zone: 1.3720 – 1.3745 (current mid-range support).
Target: 1.3850 (top of range).
Stop Loss: Below 1.3660.
RR: ~1:3.
Alternatively, a break above 1.3850 could signal fresh bullish continuation toward 1.4000, while a daily close below 1.3650 exposes 1.3500.
Final Summary
USDCAD is in wait-and-see mode, caught between:
A weakening USD from Fed cut bets & political tension.
A fragile CAD supported by oil but threatened by weak GDP.
Until data clears the picture, expect box-pattern trading with opportunities near support and resistance.
👉 Follow me for more 1:5 RR setups, trade breakdowns, and live market updates.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.
Aviso legal
As informações e publicações não devem ser e não constituem conselhos ou recomendações financeiras, de investimento, de negociação ou de qualquer outro tipo, fornecidas ou endossadas pela TradingView. Leia mais em Termos de uso.