USDCAD Elliott wave analysis with two high probable scenarios

I have my preferred forecast( bearish) and alternative forecast for USDCAD. A break above 1.24 should be sufficient to take price even higher and that will validate the alternative scenario. I can then trade the pullback - probably the end of the 4th wave. If price does otherwise and break downside, I will get along the bearish move toward 1.19. Please confirm with your methods.