DOW reaching a technical level for an oversold bounce..

I dont know if history will repeat this time around but what i have noticed over the last 6 months is that every-time the DOW US30 has made a move below the 200 day ma (green line), it tends to be followed by a reversal higher above the 200dma in the succeeding days...

If this bounce does take place the obvious target would be 28170 to take profit - generally the market has bounced between 1000-1200 points from the lows of the candle under the 200dma.

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Unfortunately this idea didn't work out moving below 27000 - even backtested and rejected the break which was very bearish