10y and 2y yield curves inverted--market crash when?

23 de jun. de 2023

The blue line is the inverted yield curve 10y-2y. Two other times where it got to low levels preceded the 2001 and 2008 crashes. But the orange circles mark where the crashes actually began and the markets fell, several months later after the inverted yields bottomed. The bottoms last five to eight months each before the inverted yields started to resolve and move up again. But it was 6-8 months later when the crashes began. If this holds true for today, our bottoming process is just getting started so we could be six months from the inverted yield curve moving up. Then it could take six more months before a crash begins.