Recession Watch: PCE growth
Here is a chart of quarterly PCE growth, which gives another useful 'recession watch' indicator. It is currently at a critical level and worth keeping a close eye on.
Commentary from "The Recession Playbook" from Morgan Stanley:
"With growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) below 2.5% sending a reasonably consistent recession signal. Each of the last 5 recessions has seen real PCE actually shrink on a y/y basis by the end of the recession, but leading into the recessions a large decline in the growth of PCE is also very consistent. Given the heavy reliance of the US economy on the domestic consumer, slowing consumer spend is perhaps an obvious precondition for any recession."
The chart data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Data site (FRED).
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERO1Q156NBEA
It can be studied in Tradingview using the ticker:
'QUANDL:FRED/DPCERO1Q156NBEA'
Commentary from "The Recession Playbook" from Morgan Stanley:
"With growth in real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) below 2.5% sending a reasonably consistent recession signal. Each of the last 5 recessions has seen real PCE actually shrink on a y/y basis by the end of the recession, but leading into the recessions a large decline in the growth of PCE is also very consistent. Given the heavy reliance of the US economy on the domestic consumer, slowing consumer spend is perhaps an obvious precondition for any recession."
The chart data is from the Federal Reserve Economic Data site (FRED).
fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERO1Q156NBEA
It can be studied in Tradingview using the ticker:
'QUANDL:FRED/DPCERO1Q156NBEA'
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