Yield curve inversion=>Projecting a recession in 3-5 quarters
1. MACD cross=> any rate drop in the FED rate may help boost stocks in the short-term, but it will further decrease the yields on 5-10 years
2. Empirical research: 3 month to 5/10 year yield Inversion is quite a successful binary predictor for recessions occurring 3-5 quarters in the future.
3. Initial inversion occurred March 2019 on the 3 month to 5(orange line) year T.Bonds yields=> Increasing the probability of a recession for Q1 2020-Q3 2020.
2. Empirical research: 3 month to 5/10 year yield Inversion is quite a successful binary predictor for recessions occurring 3-5 quarters in the future.
3. Initial inversion occurred March 2019 on the 3 month to 5(orange line) year T.Bonds yields=> Increasing the probability of a recession for Q1 2020-Q3 2020.
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