UNG Short on technical resistance and bearish fundamentals

26 de ago. de 2016

Short UNG at 8.45 with a price target of 7.30 and a stop of 9.30. There is long term lateral resistance around ~$9.00 and broadening wedge resistance at this current level. I wouldn't hesitate either to put a shallower stop on this trade. Lately much of the bull move can be attributed to weather concerns in the Gulf. As of this writing the only current TS's trajectory is into the North Atlantic and the investigation (L99) which could enter the Gulf late Sunday is currently looking weaker. In addition the reliance on Gulf natural gas production has subsided substantially in the last decade so the effect of storms on domestic production is much less than it was a decade ago when hurricanes would cause violent pops in Henry Hub natural gas prices. Lastly, as we enter the shoulder months demand for power burn should subside some and the forward futures roll yields a gain on the ETF when short as forward months are in contango going into the winter. (If you follow my 10000 USD base account recommendations I recommend shorting 300 shares of UNG)