TESLA - Steadily declining volume in the rally (NOT a good sign)
Among my friends and acquaintances, I have been known as a Tesla perma-bull for years. So far, this has been quite a comfortable position. Today, however, I noticed something in Tesla's macro chart that has me a bit worried. On the one hand, my Parabolic Exhaustion Indicator hit the alarm at the high in both the Daily and Weekly. This alone indicates with increased probability at least a temporary correction. But what I consider more dangerous is that the rally since March 2020 (70 USD to over 1200 USD) has taken place under steadily declining volume. As early as the 19th century, Charles Dow established the theorem in his Dow Theory that a trend should be confirmed by rising volume.
I will not switch from the bull to the bear camp now - I personally would not short Tesla. However, I am now much more cautious with new positions in the stock. The danger of a selling cascade is given.
What also makes me question the sustainability of further rising prices, is the absolutely no more increaseable hype around Tesla and Elon Musk in the social media. Who is still buying? Are not ALL long Tesla already? Many with a larger position size than they should? Tesla stock is highly emotional, and that in itself already carries an increased risk for high volatility.
At least something to think about, despite all the bright visions of EVs, autonomous driving, robo taxis, turning the energy market around, etc. and the fantastic execution.
I will not switch from the bull to the bear camp now - I personally would not short Tesla. However, I am now much more cautious with new positions in the stock. The danger of a selling cascade is given.
What also makes me question the sustainability of further rising prices, is the absolutely no more increaseable hype around Tesla and Elon Musk in the social media. Who is still buying? Are not ALL long Tesla already? Many with a larger position size than they should? Tesla stock is highly emotional, and that in itself already carries an increased risk for high volatility.
At least something to think about, despite all the bright visions of EVs, autonomous driving, robo taxis, turning the energy market around, etc. and the fantastic execution.
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