As those that have been following along for the last few weeks you know that I mentioned wave iv should be long, deep, and complex. The reason for this is due to wave ii being short, shallow, and simple. It was so simple, I thought it was incomplete and misses my favorite trading opportunity...wave 3 of (3) of C. All is well that ends well though, at least I didn't lose any money. Fast forward to wave iv and we are back in the spot where the count tries to confuse people. This stuff is always easy to count in hindsight, but in the moment, not so much.
I posted the main chart on the 4HR because I want everyone to have a bird's eye view. BIG PICTURE IS KING. You can see how little wave ii is already compared to what I am still calling wave iv. If you assume iv has already ended that would mean it was actually shorter than ii. According to the alternation theory that shouldn't happen. If iv ends tomorrow or Tuesday as I mentioned on Friday, that would put it at three times as long as ii. IMHO, I feel MACD needs to work its way up closer to baseline too before we start to drop for wave v. All of these things combined plus more are why I think we still head up to the low $220's before dropping again. Below is how i am counting this thing on a micro level using the 3min chart.
As always, I have an ALT count too. This shows it is technically possible we have already started wave v. Again though, the only thing that points down in an impulsive fashion is a leading diagonal for v. This would suggest wave iv is shorter than ii and wave v started in a pretty rare pattern. Most of the time when people think they see a diagonal, they're wrong lol. It isn't until they're down the line they realize they were wrong. Personal bias helps that go a long way and can be dangerous if not kept in check.
My plan for this week, (which if one is to be successful, they MUST have a plan) is to sell these calls I have and buy puts close to the top of wave iv. Then ride v down and sell the puts/buy calls towards the bottom & ride (4) up for the next retrace. I doubt v finishes this week, but just in case it does I have already planned ahead. The call positions I enter on the counter trend will be very small in size. Most likely I will sell them quickly too. I don't trust trading counter trend trading very often but I imagine wave iv should be a $25 bump or so.
Don't forget to give this post a like and a follow if you find it useful. It is every one of you that helps the word spread. God bless and good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
I posted the main chart on the 4HR because I want everyone to have a bird's eye view. BIG PICTURE IS KING. You can see how little wave ii is already compared to what I am still calling wave iv. If you assume iv has already ended that would mean it was actually shorter than ii. According to the alternation theory that shouldn't happen. If iv ends tomorrow or Tuesday as I mentioned on Friday, that would put it at three times as long as ii. IMHO, I feel MACD needs to work its way up closer to baseline too before we start to drop for wave v. All of these things combined plus more are why I think we still head up to the low $220's before dropping again. Below is how i am counting this thing on a micro level using the 3min chart.
As always, I have an ALT count too. This shows it is technically possible we have already started wave v. Again though, the only thing that points down in an impulsive fashion is a leading diagonal for v. This would suggest wave iv is shorter than ii and wave v started in a pretty rare pattern. Most of the time when people think they see a diagonal, they're wrong lol. It isn't until they're down the line they realize they were wrong. Personal bias helps that go a long way and can be dangerous if not kept in check.
My plan for this week, (which if one is to be successful, they MUST have a plan) is to sell these calls I have and buy puts close to the top of wave iv. Then ride v down and sell the puts/buy calls towards the bottom & ride (4) up for the next retrace. I doubt v finishes this week, but just in case it does I have already planned ahead. The call positions I enter on the counter trend will be very small in size. Most likely I will sell them quickly too. I don't trust trading counter trend trading very often but I imagine wave iv should be a $25 bump or so.
Don't forget to give this post a like and a follow if you find it useful. It is every one of you that helps the word spread. God bless and good luck!
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Comentário:
This has to be the worst/choppiest impulsive pattern I have ever seen. Literally ending diagonal within leading diagonal is the only way I see this as making any sense. Watching $190's area for a potential bottom to wave v
Comentário:
Obviously my primary count is a bust. This is why I have ALT counts. Regardless of how I feel about it price is boss and it said iv was done and we've actually been in v since Oct 24. On the 1Hr chart it looks like 2 more lows are needed but the 3min chart says only OML is required. Also we have Pos div forming on the micro timeframes. I would expect us to finish wave (3) and start wave (4) by Wednesday or Thursday. I will update in more detail tonight. Sorry if I didn't get to your comment, today has been busier than I expected
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
