Beating SP500 with SP500: Outperformed The Index Its Own Weapons

18 de dez. de 2023

Hi, all.
Hope you're doing well.

Looks like a good time to share a summary of a post I made almost a few years ago about SP500 stocks, 23.02.2022. Back then, I relied solely on technical analysis. Fast forward two years and the majority of my picks have proven to be quite accurate, showcasing the effectiveness of technical analysis in investing.

While the SP500 gained around 10%, my selected stocks outperformed with an impressive 35% gain. Out of the 75 stocks I handpicked, 51 are currently in profit, 12 are in the red, and the rest didn't reach enough close to the zone or haven't made a breakout yet. So 63 has triggered and it will give a winning percentage of more than 80%. I'm okay with that.

These results show the importance of technical analysis in making informed investment decisions. It's a clear example of how understanding market trends and patterns can lead to substantial gains, even when ignoring company fundamentals.

These results challenge the notion that picking individual stocks is fairly difficult to beat market averages. Instead, it demonstrates that with the right skills and a strategic approach to technical analysis, it's not only possible but achievable.

I'm excited about these outcomes and look forward to further refining my strategies in the ever-evolving world of finance.

Results are calculated by purchasing with an equal amount of money from every area that I drew and holding these until today (started to make this post quite a few days ago so it can add a bit of variation).

If the price falls through the box and comes back afterward then I always calculate from the middle of the box that purchase price. If I had done it at the best possible price then these results would have been significantly better. I did it the optimal way, you will see yourself...



1. AAPL - a load-it-up type of thing has worked out nicely. Used previously worked resistance levels. If the stocks performing well and the market cap is big then these levels can help you to get on board.
Current profit 42%
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2. ADBE - came down quite roughly but it found support and back above fairly quickly.
Current profi 67%.
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3. AMD - round nr., strong resistance level becomes support and the climb can continue.
Current profit 80%
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4. AMZN - split. Came down from high prices to the marked levels and those who were patient enough got rewarded nicely.
Current profit 34%
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5. ANET - retest of the round nr. worked perfectly, as a momentum price level, after the strong breakout.
Current profit 143%
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6. APTV: Came down quite sharply and it will take some time to start growing from here, if at all.
Current loss -2%
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7. AXP - firstly the round nr. 200 worked as a strong resistance level. Another example is to avoid buying if the stock price approaches bigger round numbers the first time. Came to a previous resistance level and rejection from there…
Current profit 34%
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8. BIO - in general I like the price action, kind of smoothly to the optimal zone. It might take some time to start growing from here but also fundamentals need to look over.
Current loss 13%
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9. BLK - kind of flawless. Worked perfectly.
Current profit 48%
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10. BLL - a perfect example of why you should wait for a breakout to get a confirmed move. No trade.
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11) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Buy the dip. Again, as Apple, a big and well-known company - all you need to do is to determine the round numbers and small previous resistances that act as support levels.
Current avg. profit from two purchases 28%
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12) Cardinal Health (CAH) - the retest isn't as deep as wanted but still a confirmed breakout and rally afterward.
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13) Ceridian HCM Holding (CDAY) - found support from the shown area but not much momentum.
Current profit 33%
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14) Charter Communications (CHTR) - technically speaking it is a quite good price action but kind of slow momentum from the shown area. So, it can take some time if the fundamentals are ok.
Current loss -14%
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15) Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) - got liquidity from new lows, pumped up quickly, and is currently fairly solid.
Current profit 16%
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16) Cummins (CMI) - close one, got rejected a few points before my shown area from the first role reversal (old resistance becomes support)
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17) Salesforce.com (CRM) - perfect. 50% drop, strong horizontal area, and mid-round nr did the work.
Current profit 74%
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18) Cisco Systems (CSCO) - worked and slow grind upwards can continue.
Current profit 18%
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19) Caesars Entertainment (CZR) - not in good shape imo. It has taken too much time and the majority of that is sideways movement.
Current loss 4.8%
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20) Devon Energy (DVN) - inside the area and actually active atm. Still, now I’m seeing a bit deeper correction than shown.
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21) Electric Arts (EA) - waiting for a breakout. It will come and it will be strong afterwards!
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22) eBay (EBAY) - inside the area but yeah, looks like not much power there.
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23) Enphase Energy (ENPH) - got a breakout, got a retest, and did ~70% rally after that! If you still hold it, as I do statistics, then…
Current loss -30%
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24) Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) - kind of worked but didn't reach. No trade.
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25) Meta Platforms (META) - one of the best examples that you want to be in the markets and technical areas should give you the confidence to make your move! Run through the area but very quick and consistent comeback.
Current profit 86%
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26) FedEx (FDX) - I love the outcome of this. Very solid price action and multiple criteria worked as they should. Perfect.
Current profit 65%
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27) First Republic Bank (FRC) - firstly got a solid 30 to 35% gain from the shown area but...we cannot fight with the fundamentals.
Current loss 99%
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28) General Motors (GM) - slow but has started to show something.
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29) Alphabet (GOOG) - load it up 3.0, a good and strong company, and use every previous historical resistance levels to jump in.
Current avg. profit after three different price level purchases 32%
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30) Genuine Parts (GPC) - rallied quite strongly without a retest but now has started to approach my shown level.
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31) Goldman Sachs (GS) - really close one but still count it in.
Current profit 33%
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32) Hormel Foods (HRL) - quite bad performance here. Two trades, two losses.
The current loss combined these two together is 35%
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33) Intel (INTC) - one of my favorites again. Looks like the zone is in the middle of nowhere but the rejection came exactly from the box with good momentum in it.
Current profit 64%
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34) Ingersoll Rand (IR) - sweeeet!
Current profit 87%
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35) Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) - the trendline, 50% drop, strong horizontal area. Ready, set, go! Sweeet 2.0 ;)
Current profit 62%
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36) Johnson Controls International (JCI) - the retest worked quite nicely but did not have enough momentum. So probably it moves sideways for a while.
Current profit 14%
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37) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Buy the dip and we had only one dip :)
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38) CarMax (KMX) - the area is strong but not enough momentum in it so I take it as a weakness.
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39) Kroger Company (KR) - breakout occurred, retest also but nothing more to say.
Current loss -6%
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40) Lennar Corp. (LEN) - strong resistance level becomes strong support.
Current profit 133%
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41) LKQ Corp. (LKQ) - haven’t reached yet but still, it should be solid.
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42) Southwest Airlines (LUV) - no breakout = no trade! Don’t cheat! Your money can be stuck forever but in the meantime, other stocks are flying as you also see in this post. If there is a solid resistance, wait for the breakout and possibly retest afterward!
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43) Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - channel inside a channel projection ;) TA its own goodness!
Current profit 60%
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44) Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) - nice one!
Current profit 67%
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45) Altria Group (MO) - got a decent break but lacked momentum after that and sideways movement can continue.
Current loss -11%
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46) Moderna (MRNA) - still inside a quite wide zone but nothing too exciting from my point of view.
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47) Morgan Stanley (MS) - the first stop has worked, and got some movements.
Current profit 27%
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48) Microsoft (MSFT) - Load it up 4.0, buy the dip has worked again with well-known stock.
Three purchases and avg. return from these are amazing 54%
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49) Match Group (MTCH) - if I look at it now then I don’t really like this chart at the beginning but it is what it is and we accept the loss.
Current loss -57%
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50) Netflix (NFLX) - almost the same as Meta. Came quite sharply but the recovery has been also quick. Another proof that you want to be on the market if these rallies occur.
Current profit 62%
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51) NRG Energy (NRG) - wait for the retest
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52) NVIDIA (NVDA) let this speaks for itself!
Current profit 200%
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53) NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) - usually the sweet spot stays in the middle of the box, and also as I look over these ideas quite a few have started to climb from the first half of the box.
Current profit 72%
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54) Pfizer (PFE) - yeah, got rejected after it came to retest the area the first time to around 30% but after that - slow death.
Current loss -29%
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55) PerkinElmer - “after” is EUR chart but you get the point.
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56) Pentair (PNR) - worked correctly, 50% drop combined with the horizontal area, easily recognizable, and the result is quite okay.
Current profit 65%
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57) Public Storage (PSA) - slowly has fallen to the zone and first impressions are on the chart already.
Current profit 20%
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58) PayPal (PYPL) - the area just lowers the speed of dropping :)
Current loss -29%
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59) Qorvo (QRVO) - it can be a “late riser”, let’s see.
Current profit 24%
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60) Rockwell Automation (ROK) - sweet, worked again like a charm.
Current profit 52%
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61) Rollins (ROL) - after posting it didn’t come to retest the shown area. Being late for a couple of weeks. Worked but cannot count it in, the only thing I can count is that my bias was correct ;)
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62) Snap-On Incorporated (SNA) - same story!
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63) Seagate Technology (STX) - firstly it came there! Look how far it was, the technical levels are like magnets, the price needs to find some liquidity for further growth and these areas can offer it. I like this, and the climbing can continue.
Current profit 42%
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64) Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) - one of the textbook examples of how trendline, 50 drop, round nr. and strong horizontal price zone should match. A bit slow but oohhh boy I want this will play out. I have talked about this idea in several presentations and it is kind of a perfect example of how these criteria can determine the strongest zone on the chart!
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65) TE Connectivity (TEL) - came down, and got a rejection. “Simple” as that.
Current profit 34%
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66) Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) - mister Ranging Market. Nothing but last month got a bit of volume from the liquidity zone and let’s see what it can do.
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67) Trimble (TRMB) - currently up but the price action signs that it can stay ranging for some time.
Current profit 19%
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68) Tesla (TSLA) - made a split. Have been successfully recommended many times after that here and there but two years ago was these price levels and..
The current profit after two purchases is 16%
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69) Train Technologies (TT) - dipped the box and off it goes!
Current profit 91%
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70) Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) - I like this analysis a lot. Worked as a clockwork.
Current profit 60%
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71) United Rentals (URI) - scam :) have some closest calls counted in and here is another one.
Current profit 128%
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72) Waters Corp. (WAT) - came to the box as it should be slow and steady. As the plane came to the runway.
Current profit 33%
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73) Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) - another escaped winner. Didn’t come down to retest my retest area so, missed it.
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74) Xylem (XYL) - nice to see that the majority of these areas are working very nicely!
Current profit 49%
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75) Autodesk (ADSK) - slowly, slowly but worked and climbing from the shown area.
Current profit 42%
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As we summarise this journey through the past two years of market analysis and stock picking, it's clear that the power of technical analysis has been a guiding force in achieving remarkable results.
As said, these chartings are made solely based on technical analysis but if you add here a bit of fundamentals then these results can be much better. Probably would have avoided some losses. If possible, always use both analyses. Let this post prove to you that technical analysis works in most cases and helps you find good entry points. These areas act like magnets. Sooner or later the price will still reach these levels. I like this saying a lot and I will end my post with it: fundamental analysis tells you what to buy, technical analysis tells you when to buy!

Hopefully, you liked this post, learned something from it and if it isn't too much to ask then which one was your favorite?


Take care & happy trading,
Vaido

19 de dez. de 2023

Nota

Hi,

Just in case putting PART 1 here as well:

Regards,
Vaido