TLT short - warning signs from Japan

16 de jul.

TLT is making 20-day lows (red candles in the main chart), while continuing to make 20-week lows on a weekly chart (not shown). Meanwhile, looking at a proxy of net buying/selling (bottom panel), we have flipped from buying to selling.

Looking at Japanese bond yields, 10-year JGBs (JP10Y) just broke out of tight range. This is the third attempt to trade above ~1.59% recently, which we saw earlier today. As Japan's is one of the world's leading overseas investors, this is an obvious warning sign for bonds globally.

There is good risk/reward to short bonds here, with a stop-loss if the price closes at a 20-day high. If a 20-day high is made, the candles will change color from red to green.

Both indicators (Breakout Trend and Buying/Selling Proxy) are available for free on TradingView.

21 de jul.

Trade fechado: stop atingido

Worth taking the loss here.

Selling has likely climaxed, and long-duration bonds are now more likely to follow medium- and short-duration bonds higher.