Long TIGR (Maybe Double Up)

17 de dez. de 2024

TIGR is a fintech company incorporated in Singapore and headquartered in Beijing. Think HOOD for asian markets, and having direct access to those equities. From the chart you can see they clearly align with the China trade and do get a huge boost if we see China's market pick up.

Current Position:

Average Share Price $5.87 and continuing to buy this up.

Options

$6 12/20/2024
$4 01/17/2024
$5.50 04/17/2025
$5.50 01/16/2026
$5.50 01/15/2027

Still adding. I think $10 is pretty likely even in the short term, but obviously taking some long plays as well, and just picking my spots to grab options when IV is reasonable and I can get some deals. If the China / Asia trade gets some legs, I don't think $20-$25 is out of the question.

My Reasoning

They just did a pretty sizeable offering Oct 23 at $6.25 of 15 million shares, with underwriters getting the opportunity to buy an additional 2.25 million in the 20 days after the offering. (Which they did). This caused approximately 10% dilution to existing share holders. Share price held up pretty well and already trading well above the offering, even while the rest of China continues to downtrend or chop.

2024 Q3
- Revenue: $101 million - record high (44.1% year-over-year increase).
- Net Revenue: $30.84 million - the highest in 3 years (15% year-over-year increase).
- Net Income Attrib. to Ordinary Shareholders: $17.8 million (34.0% year-over-year increase).
- Assets under management: $19.8 billion (115.9% year-over-year increase).
- Funded Accounts: 1,035,000 (19.3% year-over-year increase).
- Total Accounts: 2,370,000 (10.2% year-over-year increase).
- Trading Volume: $163 billion, (103.1% year-over-year increase).
- Net Profit Margin: 17.6% (-1.3% year-over-year decrease).

All while the Asia trade has been pretty much a no go.

In January 2024 they were issued a Type 1 license (Allowing crypto on the platform) and in July 2024 they got Type 9 license (Allowing client asset management services). Two other brokerages have also been given Type 1 licenses in 2024 FUTU and HKVAX (HKVAX also got type 7 for automated trading).

FUTU is a significant competitor with 12x the market cap of TIGR, 2x the assets under management (grew 40% year-over-year), and 4x the revenue (grew 29% year-over-year), and greater brand recognition. But with 12x the market cap and lower growth numbers, TIGR seems like the better play for now, although I might add some FUTU as well.

TIGR has not released specific geographic breakdowns but they have mentioned 75% of funded accounts are outside of mainland China (Q1 2024). Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, United States all mentioned as growth stories.

They have a sizeable user base now, and growing rapidly. If you are long enough term you also just have the cultural tides in your favor as Asia, India are seeing retail investor participation increase rapidly.

I look at this and see a double up just based on the companies growth story while Asia trade has been less than ideal. If we get an actual China pump 2.5x, 3x not out of the question.

Risks

I mean China right, TIGR is incorporated in Singapore which is slightly better and analysis would lead me to believe that a majority of their assets under management are in Singapore but we all know China could yank a license, attack Taiwan, or do some other bull and send the stock tumbling. It's a foreign company, the reporting requirements are different, more opaque, and harder to analyze. Other risks include just the history of the company, offerings are not super rare occurrences and the balance sheet historically is not pretty. This was not a well oiled machine from the beginning. Still a chance management blows it, you also have real competition with FUTU.

However, you can't just luck into the numbers above so things are changing. IMHO.

18 de dez. de 2024

Trade ativo

Sold 75% of the $6 12/20 calls today.

IV quite elevated but some nice vertical spreads on 4/17/2025 that I'll look to get good fills on.

Also grabbing some extremely cheap OTM puts for a little bit of black swan insurance.

26 de dez. de 2024

Trade fechado: objetivo atingido

Still in this trade, sold all the rest of the 12/20 options before the doomed FOMC call for a nice profit.

I repositioned a lot on FOMC day concentrated more into this and my HITI trade. I've bought my share average up to 6.26 at this point, I've also added some more of the 4/17 contracts.

26 de dez. de 2024

Nota

Damnit I clicked the wrong button, this trade isn't closed and likely won't be for quite some time.

14 de fev.

Nota

As I noted in comments still in this trade I've continued to add and further concentrate as some of my other positions stop out or are closed out. Average is back up to 6.17, and just being patient. I will start to sell the 4/17 contracts as price action allows.

27 de fev.

Nota

Brutal couple days with a little relief today, added a bit more right at $7 and below during the heavy sell off. Nothing really fundamentally changing and trading volume and sentiment on the Asia trade continues to improve. Just being patient and waiting for my double up.

18 de mar.

Nota

Earnings today and TIGR crushed expectations. Sold the 4/17 options today, and just holding shares now.