10/2 Inverted Yield Strategy
Atualizado
The inverted Yield is basically 6/6 as an indicator of an oncoming recession. At initial inversion the stock market sees initial growth as rates go higher. It isn't until on average 16-19 months that a recession occurs after initial inversion.
putnam.com/advisor/content/perspectives/9043-yield-curve-inversion-and-market-performance
A study by Bloomberg tracked performance of the S&P 500 against the 2 and 10 year US treasury inverted yield curve and found that the best time to sell equities in the stock market was when the inverted yield begins rising again and is at the -0.15 level. The best time to get back into the market and restart your DCA is when the inverted yield rose above the 2.15 level. This period typically takes 660-700 days to occur.
bloomberg.com/professional/blog/heres-what-u-s-yield-curve-inversion-means-for-the-sp-500-outlook/
On April 1, 2022 the 2/10 yield curve inverted. As of today we are at 19 months.
Today October 20th, 2023 the inverted yield curve turned up at -0.15.
The vertical red lines are selling of equities at -0.15 and the green line indicated repurchasing of equities at the 2.15 line for the last two recessions.
*This is not financial advice. Invest at your own risk and do your own due diligence.
putnam.com/advisor/content/perspectives/9043-yield-curve-inversion-and-market-performance
A study by Bloomberg tracked performance of the S&P 500 against the 2 and 10 year US treasury inverted yield curve and found that the best time to sell equities in the stock market was when the inverted yield begins rising again and is at the -0.15 level. The best time to get back into the market and restart your DCA is when the inverted yield rose above the 2.15 level. This period typically takes 660-700 days to occur.
bloomberg.com/professional/blog/heres-what-u-s-yield-curve-inversion-means-for-the-sp-500-outlook/
On April 1, 2022 the 2/10 yield curve inverted. As of today we are at 19 months.
Today October 20th, 2023 the inverted yield curve turned up at -0.15.
The vertical red lines are selling of equities at -0.15 and the green line indicated repurchasing of equities at the 2.15 line for the last two recessions.
*This is not financial advice. Invest at your own risk and do your own due diligence.
Trade ativo
The inverted yield has still not crossed the -0.15 threshold and has been rejected there twice as the FED continues to hold rates higher for longer. Potential for rate cuts at the end of July would move the duration of the 600-650 dip window for the traditional stock market from October 23 to July/September 24.
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