Since the top, we have been selling off strong, yet in an orderly fashion. In doing so we have broken out of our current Ascending Wedge and Channel. While our break was violent in volatility terms, it wasn't an impulsive breakdown... yet.
My read on this tape is we broke our Ascending Wedge and Channel and Friday we attempted a retest of the bottom Resistance at 290. We could see a push up to those levels Monday. Or we could find no strength in these market and sell off aggressively confirming the rejection of the Ascending Channel. We haven't impulsed down drastically and we 'could be' consolidating outside of the channel currently. This could potentially morph into bear flag type consolidation (not unlike BTC around May 7, posted below)
Scenario 1
Friday Close, was the high, and we sell Monday hard potentially breaking lows at 282.5, if so we could impulse down to 274
Scenario 2
Push up to the 290 area on Monday- Tuesday and then sell off from there.
The failure to get back within this channel is bleeding the bulls dry, they would need to get back inside that zone to hold onto a little more time. If we continue to consolidate outside of this Ascending Channel then I would expect it to be building up the supply of sell pressure for the same large impulse down.
Brace Yourselves,
This could be a very violent week.
My read on this tape is we broke our Ascending Wedge and Channel and Friday we attempted a retest of the bottom Resistance at 290. We could see a push up to those levels Monday. Or we could find no strength in these market and sell off aggressively confirming the rejection of the Ascending Channel. We haven't impulsed down drastically and we 'could be' consolidating outside of the channel currently. This could potentially morph into bear flag type consolidation (not unlike BTC around May 7, posted below)
Scenario 1
Friday Close, was the high, and we sell Monday hard potentially breaking lows at 282.5, if so we could impulse down to 274
Scenario 2
Push up to the 290 area on Monday- Tuesday and then sell off from there.
The failure to get back within this channel is bleeding the bulls dry, they would need to get back inside that zone to hold onto a little more time. If we continue to consolidate outside of this Ascending Channel then I would expect it to be building up the supply of sell pressure for the same large impulse down.
Brace Yourselves,
This could be a very violent week.
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BTC (last year) consolidating under resistance before starting a large bearish sell-off
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I can see that price is struggling at this level, It may decide to sell off from here. Many Fx basket trades are running into resistance here, as well as some small TF stochastics on the legacy markets. If it does bounce up then I am expecting a test of my POC area. That POC comes mostly from Futures price data. A level that has been fought for quite a bit this last week.
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Note: No change in behavior as of yet. We are still in orderly sell-off mode.
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I am not sure if we will actually hit our POC Target, looking weak here. Declining Volume, 30 min Stoch Overbought. Lets see how this last push up goes ...
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Going to watch 285 closely
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285 Holding So far as resistance .. If passed Upside potential is very small from here in my analysis
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0 Volume here! indecision= Fear
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Volume Continues to keep its declining nature showing indecision as price pushes to high levels/POC resistance. If volume continues to act in this manner then I would favor us dropping from here to the bottom of the bear flag. If that Breaks, then I would be looking for impulsive moves down to our support levels in blue.
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1 Minute. Watching Blue line break.
