First Signs, 9th November 2022

🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈

➤ DJIA, the blue chip equity index, continues to outpace all other US indices. It is quite remarkable. Never have I seen such outperformance. It is TELLING US something...

➤ I think the first signs of a longer bearish period is being shown by the price action. The recent move forming the higher low is looking laboured. It doesn't have the big "strides" of a strong march especially if you compare this to the up movement from the yearly low. There, the up bars are large and look confident.

➤ We can't get too far ahead of ourselves though and dive into short positions just because things look bearish. I need confirmation. We will get this very soon by today or tomorrow with inflation data.

➤ The Bullish view is that prices need a bit of time to digest the large move off the yearly low. Hence a pause before exploding higher.

➤ I've taken profit on the remainder long positions leaving the one small short in the Russell 2000. The portfolio sits at -8% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: Looking for Bearish confirmation