SPY Stock Analysis & GEX Options Insights – Feb. 18

há 6 dias

Technical Analysis (TA) for SPY
* Current Price Action: SPY is in a strong uptrend, consolidating near $610, which is a key resistance level. The price is showing signs of exhaustion but remains bullish.

* Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $610 – If SPY breaks and holds above this, it could see more upside.
* Next Resistance: $615 – Aligns with the 2nd Call Wall from GEX data.
* Major Resistance: $620 – A significant resistance level where price may struggle.
* First Support: $607 – If SPY pulls back, this could be the first bounce zone.
* Major Support: $600 – A break below this level would shift the momentum bearish.
* Critical Breakdown Level: $595 – Losing this level could lead to a larger sell-off.

* Indicators:
* MACD: Flat, indicating that SPY is in consolidation mode at resistance.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.

Options Flow & GEX Analysis

* GEX (Gamma Exposure):
* Highest Positive NetGEX / Call Resistance: $620 – The most critical resistance area.
* 94.55% Call Wall: $615 – A major resistance zone that could cap further upside.
* 72.37% Call Wall: $610 – SPY is testing this level, and a breakout could be bullish.
* Put Wall Support: $600 – The strongest downside support based on options positioning.
* 3rd Put Wall: $595 – A key level to watch if SPY starts breaking down.

* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 13.9 → Low implied volatility, meaning options are cheaper.
* IVx Avg: 13.9 → A stable volatility level.
* Options Sentiment: Puts = 74.8% → A heavy bearish positioning in options flow, possibly hedging against downside risk.

Trade Setups
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play):
* Entry: Above $610 with strong volume.
* Target: $615, then $620 (Gamma Squeeze Potential).
* Stop Loss: Below $607.

📉 Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Play):
* Entry: Below $607.
* Target: $600 or $595 (Put Support).
* Stop Loss: Above $610.

Final Thoughts
* SPY remains bullish but is facing strong resistance at $610.
* A breakout above $610 could lead to a rally toward $615-$620.
* A failure to hold $607 might trigger a pullback to $600 or lower.
* Best Trade Approach: Watch for confirmation of a breakout above $610 or breakdown below $607 before entering a trade.

🚨 This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨

há 5 dias

Trade ativo

SPY Market Preview – Gap & Go or Gap Fill First? (Feb 18, 2025) 🚀

1️⃣ Current Market Overview (Pre-Market)
* SPY gapped up this morning, trading around $612.09.
* Resistance Zone: $612.50 - $613.00 (potential rejection area).
* Support Zone: $610.50 - $609.50 (key demand areas).

* Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish crossover, confirming upward momentum.
* Stoch RSI: Cooling off from overbought, but not yet oversold.

2️⃣ Gap & Go vs. Gap Fill Scenario
🔹 Scenario 1: Gap & Go (Bullish Momentum) ✔️ Triggers:
* SPY holds above $611.50 and builds higher lows.
* Volume increases with a strong push through $612.50.
* Big tech (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA) shows strength at open.

📌 Bullish Targets:
* $613.00 (psychological level).
* $615.00 (extended move if momentum sustains).
* If a breakout holds, we could see a trend continuation towards $617+.

🔻 Scenario 2: Gap Fill Before Move Up (Consolidation & Retest) ✔️ Triggers:
* SPY struggles to hold $611.50, leading to a retrace.
* Weak buying pressure at open → potential pullback to $610.50 - $609.50 before bouncing.
* Volume remains low, causing slow grind lower before finding support.

📌 Gap Fill Support Levels:
* $610.50 (key demand zone).
* $609.50 - $608.50 (full gap fill zone, strong buyers expected).

3️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Direction
* Options Flow: If call buyers step in early, expect a gap & go move.
* VIX Levels: If VIX remains stable or drops, bullish bias remains strong.
* Fed & News Impact: No major news today, so technicals should dominate price action.

📢 📊 My Bias:
* Stronger Probability: Gap & Go if $611.50 holds.
* If Early Weakness: Look for a gap fill into $610.50-$609.50 before rebounding.
* Overall Sentiment: Bullish, but expect some consolidation before continuation.