Are we close to the end of the U.S Equity Bull Market?

23 de out. de 2018

Technical Analysis.

*trading volume gradually decreasing since March 2009

• most recent price action over-extended based on Fibonacci extension plotted from the beginning, peak, and trough of the previous business cycle
  
• monthly MACD indicators suggest a potential trend reversal
  
• monthly RSI overbought since the beginning of 2018
  
• bearish divergence forming since 2018 YTD between RSI and monthly candles
  
  
  
  Fundamentals Analysis
• Household debt reaching new all time highs
  seekingalpha.com/article/4193691-household-debt-cycle
• Sovereign debt in uncharted territory
  usdebtclock.org/
• U.S Treasurey yield curve beginning to flatten
  seekingalpha.com/article/4202433-u-s-yield-curve-looks-hell-bent-inverting-flattest-since-august-2007
• Equity buybacks are reaching record levels
  cnbc.com/2018/07/02/corporate-buybacks-are-the-only-thing-keeping-the-stock-market-afloat.html

How much more can the Federal Reserve increase rates before the the US can no longer afford the interest on the nearly 21 Trillion budget deficit?
We could either see two things happen as a result of the central bank's actions on open market operations: default or stagflation/inflation of the US Dollar

DISCLAIMER: not intended to be personal financial advice nor is this a recommendation to open any short positions.