I wasn't going to do a weekly post because my previous video about the Bull and Bear case is really what we need to be watching.
If you haven't watched that and you care about my thoughts and opinions on markets, I suggest watching it haha. It really outlines what we need to be paying attention to.
But without a weekly post, I won't have anywhere to update with my thoughts, so I am posting this. My forecasted range is in the chart as well as the implied move from options (mind you, you all have access to the implied move from options with my indicator haha ;)).
But to summarize, SPY is in a really precarious spot. We broke below the bear threshold on the three months which puts our anticipated move at 415 if we aren't able to reclaim this in the next 2 to 3 days.
We also went up to re-test it towards EOD on Friday and had a nasty rejection right off of it:
Not only that but if we look at the current monthly candle, its pretty damning:
In terms of the probability for next week, well to be truthful most of my stuff is all printing bullishness. Momentum probs, regression probs, time series, its all fairly pretty bullish.
But the concern is intra-day on Monday its really down the middle. I do not have a good read on what the day is going to bring on Monday because the probs are too down the middle.
As well, the option positioning for the week on SPX is really bad. Its at levels that generally correspond to my forecasted low targets being hit.
So what is the verdict for next week:
Well, watch the video. If we break back over the 437 and see the momentum come in, then this is likely a confirmed bullish bird. A confirmed bullish bird brings our expected move over the current high of the year. For those who forget/didn't watch the video/ don't know my own made up and ambiguous chart patterns, here is a general bullish bird playout:
If we move sideways and chop, we are forming the final stage of a bearish bird and the move is likely down.
The good or bad news? Maybe.. is that generally, with these types of chart layouts/patterns, we don't see an immediate move if its bearish. If it is bullish, the "break up" is generally swift and aggressive. That means we shouldn't see an immediate capitulation event but if we fail to regain bullish momentum rather quickly its kind of the nail in the coffin for the bull thesis.
The other thing is we have Jackson hole starting on Friday. So if we do consolidate under the guise of "waiting for the JH event", its likely just completing the bearish bird pattern and will tank with JH.
Either way, those are my thoughts. Play it carefully.
I did take a small long position on the after hours dump on UPRO (under 5 K) on the off chance this begins a breakup pattern on ES into the AM. I do think this is unlikely, I really do, especially with the bearish positioned SPX, but meh, it was worth a shot to try.
The other reason I decided to try a long was the pipe bottom/bullish engulfing on ES1! on the 4 hour chart:
Thanks for reading everyone!
If you haven't watched that and you care about my thoughts and opinions on markets, I suggest watching it haha. It really outlines what we need to be paying attention to.
But without a weekly post, I won't have anywhere to update with my thoughts, so I am posting this. My forecasted range is in the chart as well as the implied move from options (mind you, you all have access to the implied move from options with my indicator haha ;)).
But to summarize, SPY is in a really precarious spot. We broke below the bear threshold on the three months which puts our anticipated move at 415 if we aren't able to reclaim this in the next 2 to 3 days.
We also went up to re-test it towards EOD on Friday and had a nasty rejection right off of it:
Not only that but if we look at the current monthly candle, its pretty damning:
In terms of the probability for next week, well to be truthful most of my stuff is all printing bullishness. Momentum probs, regression probs, time series, its all fairly pretty bullish.
But the concern is intra-day on Monday its really down the middle. I do not have a good read on what the day is going to bring on Monday because the probs are too down the middle.
As well, the option positioning for the week on SPX is really bad. Its at levels that generally correspond to my forecasted low targets being hit.
So what is the verdict for next week:
Well, watch the video. If we break back over the 437 and see the momentum come in, then this is likely a confirmed bullish bird. A confirmed bullish bird brings our expected move over the current high of the year. For those who forget/didn't watch the video/ don't know my own made up and ambiguous chart patterns, here is a general bullish bird playout:
If we move sideways and chop, we are forming the final stage of a bearish bird and the move is likely down.
The good or bad news? Maybe.. is that generally, with these types of chart layouts/patterns, we don't see an immediate move if its bearish. If it is bullish, the "break up" is generally swift and aggressive. That means we shouldn't see an immediate capitulation event but if we fail to regain bullish momentum rather quickly its kind of the nail in the coffin for the bull thesis.
The other thing is we have Jackson hole starting on Friday. So if we do consolidate under the guise of "waiting for the JH event", its likely just completing the bearish bird pattern and will tank with JH.
Either way, those are my thoughts. Play it carefully.
I did take a small long position on the after hours dump on UPRO (under 5 K) on the off chance this begins a breakup pattern on ES into the AM. I do think this is unlikely, I really do, especially with the bearish positioned SPX, but meh, it was worth a shot to try.
The other reason I decided to try a long was the pipe bottom/bullish engulfing on ES1! on the 4 hour chart:
Thanks for reading everyone!
Comentário:
I just ran probs on NQ too, yeah I think this is def probably gapping down tomorrow, SPY and QQQ.
But don't get too bearish because intra-day it seems like bullishness should prevail over bearishness.
Be careful everyone!
But don't get too bearish because intra-day it seems like bullishness should prevail over bearishness.
Be careful everyone!
Comentário:
Given that this gapped up, its a short seeing that Asia and Europe felt so empowered to take away my intra-day bullish probs and use them for themselves haha.
Immediate TP is 438.48 on SPY.
You can probably buy the dip today, but this is turning into a bearish bird unfortunately.
Safe trades everyone!
Immediate TP is 438.48 on SPY.
You can probably buy the dip today, but this is turning into a bearish bird unfortunately.
Safe trades everyone!
Comentário:
That box I drew in my Monday Market outlook video:
Comentário:
And que the topping behaviour.
The obnoxious and persistent bullish pushing really puts the nail in the coffin of "top" behaviour.
SPY will probably tag 437.15 by EOD but you'd be brave to play it with options with this PA specifically situated to screw option players haha.
What a mess.
At the end of the day, SPY fell back into its weekly threshold range:
Which technically puts the target at 436.
But with this topping behaviour, you're really hard pressed to get anywhere, because its just a constant whipsaw battle between bulls and bears until eventually bulls give up.
If you are already out of your position, I would just leave it. I don't recommend positioning anything at this point, but trade your plan as always!
The obnoxious and persistent bullish pushing really puts the nail in the coffin of "top" behaviour.
SPY will probably tag 437.15 by EOD but you'd be brave to play it with options with this PA specifically situated to screw option players haha.
What a mess.
At the end of the day, SPY fell back into its weekly threshold range:
Which technically puts the target at 436.
But with this topping behaviour, you're really hard pressed to get anywhere, because its just a constant whipsaw battle between bulls and bears until eventually bulls give up.
If you are already out of your position, I would just leave it. I don't recommend positioning anything at this point, but trade your plan as always!
Comentário:
And QQQ:
It is possible we do bounce back up to 364.51 on QQQ and 439.68 on SPY but every bullish push is being hard rejected.
It is possible we do bounce back up to 364.51 on QQQ and 439.68 on SPY but every bullish push is being hard rejected.
Comentário:
Last update on the day, checked back on SPXS because I drew out that inv H&S pattern if you remember from my previous weekly update, and this is the progress so far:
Comentário:
What a mess,
so despite my overall bias being bearish longer term, I am long on this haha. At the end of the day, the probs for the week were bullish and we have satisfied the conditions to bring us to 444:
444 is where I would be looking for rejection, the exact price target is in the chart. We have so many catalysts coming up, its hard to say what will happen, but with this approaching the 444 and taking it out while in advance of the JH speech and NVDA earnings, I think we could see some pretty dramatic moves.
Not seeing anything crazy with option positioning on the week. Its all pretty low key. But what I will be really interested in seeing is how those MMs are positioning overnight on Thursday night. That will be interesting.
I am personally inclined to start a short position at 444, but that remains to be seen. We need to get to 444 first and then I will decide.
Safe trades everyone!
so despite my overall bias being bearish longer term, I am long on this haha. At the end of the day, the probs for the week were bullish and we have satisfied the conditions to bring us to 444:
444 is where I would be looking for rejection, the exact price target is in the chart. We have so many catalysts coming up, its hard to say what will happen, but with this approaching the 444 and taking it out while in advance of the JH speech and NVDA earnings, I think we could see some pretty dramatic moves.
Not seeing anything crazy with option positioning on the week. Its all pretty low key. But what I will be really interested in seeing is how those MMs are positioning overnight on Thursday night. That will be interesting.
I am personally inclined to start a short position at 444, but that remains to be seen. We need to get to 444 first and then I will decide.
Safe trades everyone!
Comentário:
well in advance of the JH speech***
Comentário:
So my suspicion was correct, this was a bearish bird.
We had a cleaner break of this than the last time. I have plotted out the last break SPY did with a bearish bird on the daily and placed it where we are now:
Its interesting to see its a very similar setup, especially in relation to the EMA 9/21.
Using the ghost feed/pattern function, the break would bring us to the 370s, but that is obviously not what I am expecting at this point.
Still, exercise caution. This is a pretty bad finish but you should always be vigilant!
Safe trades everyone.
Side note, I did post a video, you already know so never mind, haha.
And I suppose while I have you, we could take a peak at the projections for tomorrow:
Prospectively, its pretty 50 / 50. Intra-day seems to favour further downside.
If we look at ES1! its a bit more bullish, which suggests we could see a bounce happen overnight.
Safe trades everyone! Leave your questions and comments and thoughts below :-).
We had a cleaner break of this than the last time. I have plotted out the last break SPY did with a bearish bird on the daily and placed it where we are now:
Its interesting to see its a very similar setup, especially in relation to the EMA 9/21.
Using the ghost feed/pattern function, the break would bring us to the 370s, but that is obviously not what I am expecting at this point.
Still, exercise caution. This is a pretty bad finish but you should always be vigilant!
Safe trades everyone.
Side note, I did post a video, you already know so never mind, haha.
And I suppose while I have you, we could take a peak at the projections for tomorrow:
Prospectively, its pretty 50 / 50. Intra-day seems to favour further downside.
If we look at ES1! its a bit more bullish, which suggests we could see a bounce happen overnight.
Safe trades everyone! Leave your questions and comments and thoughts below :-).
Comentário:
FYI, implied move for tomorrow from options:
Not all that dramatic but slightly wider than normal. If we were to adjust for volatility, it would expand it out by about a dollar.
Not all that dramatic but slightly wider than normal. If we were to adjust for volatility, it would expand it out by about a dollar.
Comentário:
Huge waste of a day and catalyst.
It has predominately been untradeable today because the bounces have been erratic and nonsensical and the momentum has been impotent.
These days are strategically designed to screw option traders who are expecting a big move on a catalyst. Its pretty sick really, but its the ideal day to sell 0 dte calls and puts at opposite ends of the range and join the MMs in their screwing of retail traders haha.
After shorting the initial tumble, I just did this. No dramatic gains from doing it but safe. And there really are no dramatic gains to be had with days like this to begin with.
Will see what it does at close but as of now, its all B.S. PA screwing option players. So its hard to really judge the true sentiment. We have to wait for the charade to end to really see the true over-arching sentiment.
At this point I have no opinion. Could probably go either way since SPY is so adamant about holding 437. But let's see where we close.
It has predominately been untradeable today because the bounces have been erratic and nonsensical and the momentum has been impotent.
These days are strategically designed to screw option traders who are expecting a big move on a catalyst. Its pretty sick really, but its the ideal day to sell 0 dte calls and puts at opposite ends of the range and join the MMs in their screwing of retail traders haha.
After shorting the initial tumble, I just did this. No dramatic gains from doing it but safe. And there really are no dramatic gains to be had with days like this to begin with.
Will see what it does at close but as of now, its all B.S. PA screwing option players. So its hard to really judge the true sentiment. We have to wait for the charade to end to really see the true over-arching sentiment.
At this point I have no opinion. Could probably go either way since SPY is so adamant about holding 437. But let's see where we close.
Comentário:
I will update this post with the next week outlook and thoughts:
Today was kind of a crap shoot. It was kind of funny because it was clear they were betting on people having a repeat event of last JH, but it got a little too carried away with this nonsense. We did an almost 2% move yesterday, to do another over 1% move today in both directions is just absolutely ridiculous, especially for an ETF.
Looking at the projections for Monday, it looks like a gap up is possible.
There are some MAD whipsaw vibes in these probs for Monday:
Which is just great. I love that for us.
On the weekly, I am also getting whipsaw vibes, but the over-arching theme is bearishness:
The impression is potentially a bullish start followed by selling.
If we look at the chart, this is the area I would be paying attention to:
We are holding below the DSL SMA 14 as resistance and holding above the DSL SMA 75 as support:
This is technically a re-test of the 75, if we bounce here, then it would technically be bullish.
The market is desperately clinging to the bullish narrative. I am not sure whether this was more of an oversold bounce, whether it was a giant FU to both bulls and bears, whether it was a bull trap or whether someone was just bored and needed amusement, but at the end of the day, the over-arching bias here is still very much bearish. Though its refusing to fulfill and hold bearish conditions, its not making any bullish progress. So whether that is strategic or not, something's gotta give eventually.
Last but not least, the implied range from options:
I don't have my laptop on me, so I can't run my own forecast projections, but will catch up with you on Monday to see where the real time targets are falling.
Have a great weekend everyone!
Today was kind of a crap shoot. It was kind of funny because it was clear they were betting on people having a repeat event of last JH, but it got a little too carried away with this nonsense. We did an almost 2% move yesterday, to do another over 1% move today in both directions is just absolutely ridiculous, especially for an ETF.
Looking at the projections for Monday, it looks like a gap up is possible.
There are some MAD whipsaw vibes in these probs for Monday:
Which is just great. I love that for us.
On the weekly, I am also getting whipsaw vibes, but the over-arching theme is bearishness:
The impression is potentially a bullish start followed by selling.
If we look at the chart, this is the area I would be paying attention to:
We are holding below the DSL SMA 14 as resistance and holding above the DSL SMA 75 as support:
This is technically a re-test of the 75, if we bounce here, then it would technically be bullish.
The market is desperately clinging to the bullish narrative. I am not sure whether this was more of an oversold bounce, whether it was a giant FU to both bulls and bears, whether it was a bull trap or whether someone was just bored and needed amusement, but at the end of the day, the over-arching bias here is still very much bearish. Though its refusing to fulfill and hold bearish conditions, its not making any bullish progress. So whether that is strategic or not, something's gotta give eventually.
Last but not least, the implied range from options:
I don't have my laptop on me, so I can't run my own forecast projections, but will catch up with you on Monday to see where the real time targets are falling.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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There is a potential for a gap down looking at the futures and regression probs though.
All in all, this isn't great. Things are more bearish than I would anticipate in a true bullish bird breakup pattern. I honestly have to say, if I was looking at the PA alone and the chart alone, I would be bearish here. This is pretty bad.
The only thing that keeps me somewhat bullish are the math projections. But unless we really see some momentum pick up, this is all pretty bad.
That said, SPX started the day with a PTCR volume of 4.31 on the week and we closed the day at 1.23.
Institutions tend to position in the overnight session, around 3 am and generally we see an uptick at 6 am if the day is going to start off bearish, so this could very well spike before we open tomorrow. But as of now, things have quieted down in terms of the put activity for this week.
Those are my thoughts for now, I will update if I see anything overly interesting come up.
Safe trades everyone!