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Ponzi Schemes, Margin Calls, and the Beginning of the End
Market preview:
- After a comedic but painful day of PA on Friday, with the last few shorts in the market getting squeezed out of their positions (again), futures are showing some light weakness on Monday morning. Archegos Capital failed to meet a critical margin call last week, leading to billions in losses, and other stocks linked to the fund, such as Nomura, and Credit Suisse, were also battered by over 10% before recovering some losses. Margin call you say? Hmm, I wonder how that happened in a market where everyone is drunk on margin debt?
- The bulls went full nuclear on Friday, and the S&P is set to open down around half a percent to 3,945.62, with the Dow also down half a percent at 32,772, the Nasdaq down 0.15% to 12,948.25, and the Russell down around 0.75% to 2,202.10.
- Vix is seeing a light bid and is back at a 20 handle after kissing a new post March crash low of 18.70 (we've now filled the final gap). The irrational exuberance on every single dip is really getting frustrating. I just read that 44% of US Treasuries are now held by the Fed and foreign official institutions. If that isn't a Ponzi, then what is? Will the Fed ever be able to normalize policy, or will they watch the entire global financial system go down in flames because of their blind obsession with debt? Something tells me the bond market will make the decision for them.
- The US10Y Treasury yield is sitting comfortably at a 1.64% handle, but it notably off the recent high of 1.754% (for now). The US30Y also retreated back to 2.348%, and continues to skip along key support levels.
- European markets traded mixed, with the CAC40 up by 0.27%, and the Dax up 0.27%, with the FTSE 100 down 0.80%, and the SMI down 0.30%. Asian markets were mixed also, with the Hang Seng up 0.45%, the CSI 300 down 0.20%, and the Nikkei 225 down 0.75%.
- Gold is down around 0.30% to 1,724, with Silver down by as much as 1%. We're now trading around 24.82. Platinum is up 1%, and is sitting at 1,196, while Copper traded lower by 0.73% to 4.04, and Palladium fell by 3% to 2,595.
- Crude is up notably, with WTI up around half a percent, and trading at 61.25, and Brent up half a percent also, and trading around 64.92.
- The US Dollar (DXY) is levitating around 92.80, and looks poised to melt higher on possible month end selling.
- Lots of data coming this week, of course, but the number one print I'm looking forward to is March Payrolls on Friday.
- Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM!
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
- After a comedic but painful day of PA on Friday, with the last few shorts in the market getting squeezed out of their positions (again), futures are showing some light weakness on Monday morning. Archegos Capital failed to meet a critical margin call last week, leading to billions in losses, and other stocks linked to the fund, such as Nomura, and Credit Suisse, were also battered by over 10% before recovering some losses. Margin call you say? Hmm, I wonder how that happened in a market where everyone is drunk on margin debt?
- The bulls went full nuclear on Friday, and the S&P is set to open down around half a percent to 3,945.62, with the Dow also down half a percent at 32,772, the Nasdaq down 0.15% to 12,948.25, and the Russell down around 0.75% to 2,202.10.
- Vix is seeing a light bid and is back at a 20 handle after kissing a new post March crash low of 18.70 (we've now filled the final gap). The irrational exuberance on every single dip is really getting frustrating. I just read that 44% of US Treasuries are now held by the Fed and foreign official institutions. If that isn't a Ponzi, then what is? Will the Fed ever be able to normalize policy, or will they watch the entire global financial system go down in flames because of their blind obsession with debt? Something tells me the bond market will make the decision for them.
- The US10Y Treasury yield is sitting comfortably at a 1.64% handle, but it notably off the recent high of 1.754% (for now). The US30Y also retreated back to 2.348%, and continues to skip along key support levels.
- European markets traded mixed, with the CAC40 up by 0.27%, and the Dax up 0.27%, with the FTSE 100 down 0.80%, and the SMI down 0.30%. Asian markets were mixed also, with the Hang Seng up 0.45%, the CSI 300 down 0.20%, and the Nikkei 225 down 0.75%.
- Gold is down around 0.30% to 1,724, with Silver down by as much as 1%. We're now trading around 24.82. Platinum is up 1%, and is sitting at 1,196, while Copper traded lower by 0.73% to 4.04, and Palladium fell by 3% to 2,595.
- Crude is up notably, with WTI up around half a percent, and trading at 61.25, and Brent up half a percent also, and trading around 64.92.
- The US Dollar (DXY) is levitating around 92.80, and looks poised to melt higher on possible month end selling.
- Lots of data coming this week, of course, but the number one print I'm looking forward to is March Payrolls on Friday.
- Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM!
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
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