SPY: Annual Outlook

1 de jan.

Here is my annual outlook for SPY.

Thanks for watching! And here are the levels I promised in the video:

ARIMA levels:

ETS Point Forecast at Day 252: 602.4311
ETS 80% Upper Confidence Level at Day 252: 733.9343
ETS 95% Upper Confidence Level at Day 252: 803.548
ETS 80% Lower Confidence Level at Day 252: 470.9278
ETS 95% Lower Confidence Level at Day 252: 401.3141


Happy new years everyone!

2 de jan.

Nota

Hit that 584 target pretty quick.

QQQ also broke the projected bull market low.

Some alarm bells going off but we need to see how things continue to unfold.

Safe trades everyone!

3 de jan.

Nota

SPY is breaking out of a bullish descending broadening wedge pattern.


The modelled target is 596 before we see rejection.

So far we are respecting the bull thesis.
Annual low projected for QQQ was 506. QQQ snagged 505, 1 point lower, but immediately recovered (projections are perfect but it was within a +/- 1 dollar range which is better than I would generally expect).

SPY is avoiding 600s as hypothesized and indicated in both the seasonality and annual forecast.

Expect the month to continue with whipsaw, selling and consolidation.
As of now, you may better off shorting rips than buying dips until:
a) January is over and
b) the model affirms the thesis.

As of now its a long back to the mid 590s.

Safe trades as always, not addvice!

3 de jan.

Nota

Meant to say:
Projections are NOT perfect haha and
The market affirms the thesis (which we should know into next month).