Happy Friday everyone!
Hope you all had a fantastic trading week!
It was a pretty good one. Full of a lot of foolishness but very interesting none-the-less!
It has definitely been a different December for me. I have historically lost a bunch of money shorting Decembers, this December it has been quite the inverse, so quite interesting! All of my swing trades this week were short. And they all did very well. So yeah, new December phenomenon for me!
Housekeeping:
Because this is the lead up to Christmas and I have yet to really get things prepared, I am posting this tonight and probably will not post on any other ticker over the weekend. I have been sharing my trading plans and live trades via tradingview. If this is something people are liking, I will probably continue that into next week (just let me know in the comments). My watchlist next week never changes, its the ush, SPY, BA, IWM and DIA. So those are what I plan to be actively trading.
As well, with the crazy volatility, aside from very obvious plays, I have tailored my trading back dramatically. Essentially just paying 99% probability targets.
The trades I have been sharing (except my FOMC plan but I was confident about this play) are all trades that were based off of the 99% probability targets, hence why they all turned out fairly well. I generally will only share these types of trades as these are the less sketchy ones.
But, they don't always make sense! People get confused as to why I have random TP areas. Its not me, its the math. Many disciplined traders let the trades come to them. But I ain't got the time for that. So I play whatever I have to whatever target the math says is 99% and call it a day. :-).
Alright on to the analysis!
Recap:
- Leading into this week, probability was bearish, giving a TP of 385. Per ush, the market wanted to make me look like an idiot off the bat and go right for the bullish targets, only to tank well beyond the high probability bearish target. I expect nothing less anymore.
- Moral of that story is we hit all targets, bearish and bullish.
- We came close to the high probability monthly target, I am calling this finished (remember that was 414). We were slightly off, not exact, but generally most traders operate in "areas" and not precise TPs, so I am going to accept this as a "pass". ;)
- Very clear rejection of that overhead resistance. We are not breaking over it it seems and really, longer term short positioning seems like an appropriate consideration at this time (IMO! Don't do as I say, do as you are comfortable!)
- If you watched my video analysis leading into December, you know that where I am confident in positioning more longer term short, is once the daily chart drops below the 75 Directional Sentiment Indicator (my own indicator, link here) as this has corresponded to the making of new lows in the past. We are now within DSL support and en route to likely soon fall below to that point:
I have been swinging short frequently throughout the week, but exited everything today because we are not quite in a position where I feel that it is DEFINITIVELY coming down, but I think, personally, its pretty much almost definitive.
Analysis for next week:
In full disclosure, I bought the dip today. The reason being, I pre-emptively ran analyses for next week and it was overwhelmingly bullish.
Then we rallied into EOD and it actually changed things.
But I am not concerned, so let's get into what to look for next week.
Target Prices:
Python thinks we should see at least 392.
The actual prospective, forecasted ranges are shown in the cart. The actual targets are:
Bull:
1. 393
2. 396
3. 398
Bear:
1. 370
2. 366
3. 362
Probability:
Its pretty split, but both momentum and technical probability analysis support some upside movement, but a preference for downside target 370 and potentially lower.
393 and 370 seem to be pretty supported in the probability assessment, 366 shockingly seems to be a preferred target but it seems so dramatically low. But I will leave my opinions out of it.
Probability on real time targets for next week (Which we will not know until next week) say we should be able to hit the first target on the high range but likely will go towards the second target on the low range. Will share these as an addendum to this idea into Monday open.
99% Target:
So, you know we get 99% targets on market open for the week. The reason I bought the dip is I can tell that its going to be a bullish 99% target next week and I wanted to be positioned for us to take this target out on Monday. Its to be seen what this is, and of course as always I will share it with you, but this was the rationale for my positioning this week.
That said, if you follow me you know, I am a mad market mathematician (mad as in pissed off constantly by market shenanigans), always doing little experiments to try to beat these annoying AF MMs at their own games.
And well, I was able to do a pre-emptive 99% target. Its not really a 99% target, its an 84% target, but it still permits me to pre-emptively provide you a frame of reference.
That target for next week is listed in pink in the chart and it is 385 (actually, 384.99).
This means, if we open above it, there is an 84% chance we drop down and below it.
If we open below it, there is an 84% chance we go up and hit it.
Again, not the actual 99% target that we get on open, but pretty damn close!
If you want to see this target in practice in history, here is a lookback with this calculated target recently (it is the gray/white line):
Side Note:
As a side note, someone asked me to do an analysis on BTC. So I was playing around with BTC data this past week, and I attempted to create a 99% target on the weekly.
I was actually able to and ended up taking the trade. I was debating posting it, but it was super theoretical, sketch and I have never really traded crypto before (thus had no business posting a trade alert for it), but here was the result (with my entry and exit):
I used BITI and it was over a 6% gain in like 3 days. Pretty happy for my first real crypto trade ever (not counting my investment, or, now liability I suppose in Tezos):-).
I will post a BTC analysis, I will try to put one out before Christmas! But you know how things go.
Also, look at the Tom Foolery TSLA did with its target:
Games, games, games.
Z Score:
If you see the chart above, the Z-Score indicator is giving a buy signal. These buy signals on this time frame have been fairly reliable lately and I think does bode well for at least a little selling relief.
This signal is also shared on the SPX chart on the 1 hour:
Not saying this is bullish. It isn't. Its quite bearish in fact.
But if you are a day trader or like next day swing trader, you know, there is some upside to be had here is what I am getting at.
That is it!
Final note:
Overall my sentiment is bearish, but initially short term bullish just for a bit of relief.
Continuation to the downside is quite likely to come, but we may see a little upside and an attempt to re-test the breakdown line.
Probability does favour some continuation down, but there is room for bullishness showing up (quite a high probability we see our first bull targets at least).
The ranges are above and I will update with real-time levels and trades as the week progresses.
Hopefully you all have safe trades ahead and are all ready for Christmas/holidays/whatever you celebrate!
Safe trades into the next week and next year and as always, feel free to leave your questions/ comments and whatever else below!
Thanks for reading!
Hope you all had a fantastic trading week!
It was a pretty good one. Full of a lot of foolishness but very interesting none-the-less!
It has definitely been a different December for me. I have historically lost a bunch of money shorting Decembers, this December it has been quite the inverse, so quite interesting! All of my swing trades this week were short. And they all did very well. So yeah, new December phenomenon for me!
Housekeeping:
Because this is the lead up to Christmas and I have yet to really get things prepared, I am posting this tonight and probably will not post on any other ticker over the weekend. I have been sharing my trading plans and live trades via tradingview. If this is something people are liking, I will probably continue that into next week (just let me know in the comments). My watchlist next week never changes, its the ush, SPY, BA, IWM and DIA. So those are what I plan to be actively trading.
As well, with the crazy volatility, aside from very obvious plays, I have tailored my trading back dramatically. Essentially just paying 99% probability targets.
The trades I have been sharing (except my FOMC plan but I was confident about this play) are all trades that were based off of the 99% probability targets, hence why they all turned out fairly well. I generally will only share these types of trades as these are the less sketchy ones.
But, they don't always make sense! People get confused as to why I have random TP areas. Its not me, its the math. Many disciplined traders let the trades come to them. But I ain't got the time for that. So I play whatever I have to whatever target the math says is 99% and call it a day. :-).
Alright on to the analysis!
Recap:
- Leading into this week, probability was bearish, giving a TP of 385. Per ush, the market wanted to make me look like an idiot off the bat and go right for the bullish targets, only to tank well beyond the high probability bearish target. I expect nothing less anymore.
- Moral of that story is we hit all targets, bearish and bullish.
- We came close to the high probability monthly target, I am calling this finished (remember that was 414). We were slightly off, not exact, but generally most traders operate in "areas" and not precise TPs, so I am going to accept this as a "pass". ;)
- Very clear rejection of that overhead resistance. We are not breaking over it it seems and really, longer term short positioning seems like an appropriate consideration at this time (IMO! Don't do as I say, do as you are comfortable!)
- If you watched my video analysis leading into December, you know that where I am confident in positioning more longer term short, is once the daily chart drops below the 75 Directional Sentiment Indicator (my own indicator, link here) as this has corresponded to the making of new lows in the past. We are now within DSL support and en route to likely soon fall below to that point:
I have been swinging short frequently throughout the week, but exited everything today because we are not quite in a position where I feel that it is DEFINITIVELY coming down, but I think, personally, its pretty much almost definitive.
Analysis for next week:
In full disclosure, I bought the dip today. The reason being, I pre-emptively ran analyses for next week and it was overwhelmingly bullish.
Then we rallied into EOD and it actually changed things.
But I am not concerned, so let's get into what to look for next week.
Target Prices:
Python thinks we should see at least 392.
The actual prospective, forecasted ranges are shown in the cart. The actual targets are:
Bull:
1. 393
2. 396
3. 398
Bear:
1. 370
2. 366
3. 362
Probability:
Its pretty split, but both momentum and technical probability analysis support some upside movement, but a preference for downside target 370 and potentially lower.
393 and 370 seem to be pretty supported in the probability assessment, 366 shockingly seems to be a preferred target but it seems so dramatically low. But I will leave my opinions out of it.
Probability on real time targets for next week (Which we will not know until next week) say we should be able to hit the first target on the high range but likely will go towards the second target on the low range. Will share these as an addendum to this idea into Monday open.
99% Target:
So, you know we get 99% targets on market open for the week. The reason I bought the dip is I can tell that its going to be a bullish 99% target next week and I wanted to be positioned for us to take this target out on Monday. Its to be seen what this is, and of course as always I will share it with you, but this was the rationale for my positioning this week.
That said, if you follow me you know, I am a mad market mathematician (mad as in pissed off constantly by market shenanigans), always doing little experiments to try to beat these annoying AF MMs at their own games.
And well, I was able to do a pre-emptive 99% target. Its not really a 99% target, its an 84% target, but it still permits me to pre-emptively provide you a frame of reference.
That target for next week is listed in pink in the chart and it is 385 (actually, 384.99).
This means, if we open above it, there is an 84% chance we drop down and below it.
If we open below it, there is an 84% chance we go up and hit it.
Again, not the actual 99% target that we get on open, but pretty damn close!
If you want to see this target in practice in history, here is a lookback with this calculated target recently (it is the gray/white line):
Side Note:
As a side note, someone asked me to do an analysis on BTC. So I was playing around with BTC data this past week, and I attempted to create a 99% target on the weekly.
I was actually able to and ended up taking the trade. I was debating posting it, but it was super theoretical, sketch and I have never really traded crypto before (thus had no business posting a trade alert for it), but here was the result (with my entry and exit):
I used BITI and it was over a 6% gain in like 3 days. Pretty happy for my first real crypto trade ever (not counting my investment, or, now liability I suppose in Tezos):-).
I will post a BTC analysis, I will try to put one out before Christmas! But you know how things go.
Also, look at the Tom Foolery TSLA did with its target:
Games, games, games.
Z Score:
If you see the chart above, the Z-Score indicator is giving a buy signal. These buy signals on this time frame have been fairly reliable lately and I think does bode well for at least a little selling relief.
This signal is also shared on the SPX chart on the 1 hour:
Not saying this is bullish. It isn't. Its quite bearish in fact.
But if you are a day trader or like next day swing trader, you know, there is some upside to be had here is what I am getting at.
That is it!
Final note:
Overall my sentiment is bearish, but initially short term bullish just for a bit of relief.
Continuation to the downside is quite likely to come, but we may see a little upside and an attempt to re-test the breakdown line.
Probability does favour some continuation down, but there is room for bullishness showing up (quite a high probability we see our first bull targets at least).
The ranges are above and I will update with real-time levels and trades as the week progresses.
Hopefully you all have safe trades ahead and are all ready for Christmas/holidays/whatever you celebrate!
Safe trades into the next week and next year and as always, feel free to leave your questions/ comments and whatever else below!
Thanks for reading!
Premium indicators and content have launched! Get access at: www.patreon.com/steversteves
Probability and momentum models identified 1 previous situation that was almost exactly identical to this upcoming week. Here is a view of it on the weekly (the week that was identified as identical is pointed to with a yellow arrow):
I feel like this speaks volumes.