The Probabilities Have Swung, 9 Mar 2023
🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equity prices finished the day slightly up countering attempts for a further fall. Following-on from yesterday's note, that means there was NO FOLLOW-THROUGH by the Bears.
➤ I think the probabilities now favour a short-term reversal higher for the Bulls. A lacklustre uptick in the VIX with such a Bearish day yesterday was perhaps the first sign the probabilities have swung.
➤ As a Trader, I play the market based on probabilities. Let me explain this in keeping with my cricket analogy but this time from the perspective of the Batter. The Batter will play a shot depending on the type of delivery s/he receives from the Bowler just like in Baseball. The choice is to leave the ball or hit the ball with varying strength and direction. The more the ball is pitched to your liking (or to your strength), the higher the chance of your success of putting runs on the board.
➤ This is why in recent days I have not offered a shot and have let the ball "pass through to the keeper". Of course I want to trade but the market conditions have not offered balls delivered to my liking. I therefore watch closely, keep my concentration and wait.
➤ Conclusion: A shot at shorting the market is not out of the question but another day like today will see me take a Bullish shot.
NOTES: S&P500 is still firmly attracted to the 200 day moving average. Price continues to whipsaw.
➤ Equity prices finished the day slightly up countering attempts for a further fall. Following-on from yesterday's note, that means there was NO FOLLOW-THROUGH by the Bears.
➤ I think the probabilities now favour a short-term reversal higher for the Bulls. A lacklustre uptick in the VIX with such a Bearish day yesterday was perhaps the first sign the probabilities have swung.
➤ As a Trader, I play the market based on probabilities. Let me explain this in keeping with my cricket analogy but this time from the perspective of the Batter. The Batter will play a shot depending on the type of delivery s/he receives from the Bowler just like in Baseball. The choice is to leave the ball or hit the ball with varying strength and direction. The more the ball is pitched to your liking (or to your strength), the higher the chance of your success of putting runs on the board.
➤ This is why in recent days I have not offered a shot and have let the ball "pass through to the keeper". Of course I want to trade but the market conditions have not offered balls delivered to my liking. I therefore watch closely, keep my concentration and wait.
➤ Conclusion: A shot at shorting the market is not out of the question but another day like today will see me take a Bullish shot.
NOTES: S&P500 is still firmly attracted to the 200 day moving average. Price continues to whipsaw.
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✅ Copy My Trades @ eToro, etoro.com/people/mrstocky
✅ Verified Track Record 📈
Not Investment Advice
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