Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t Panic
Markets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic?
Understanding the Economic Data
Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession.
In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time.
Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern.
Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around.
With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves.
Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets.
Understanding the Market Trends
While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound.
The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts.
The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell.
The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk.
This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy.
Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation.
Concluding Thoughts
While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
Understanding the Economic Data
Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession.
In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time.
Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern.
Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around.
With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves.
Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets.
Understanding the Market Trends
While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound.
The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts.
The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell.
The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk.
This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy.
Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation.
Concluding Thoughts
While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
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